基于生态足迹模型的福建省生态安全分析与预测

生态足迹是目前较通用的衡量区域可持续发展的指标,利用生态足迹模型与其他指标结合,可以测算生态赤字（盈余）、生态足迹压力指数、万元GDP足迹等反映区域生态安全状态的定量指标．本研究计算了2002-2008年福建省人均生态赤字及生态足迹压力指数,得到全省生态压力的变化趋势．利用GM（1,1）灰色预测模型预测2009--2014年福建省人均耕地生态足迹与承载力、人均建筑用地生态足迹与承载力、人均生态赤字及生态足迹压力指数,结果表明,若继续沿着2002--2008年的发展模式,福建省在未来几年内生态安全将面临极大威胁,全省经济发展模式转型刻不容缓．     

Potential ecological risk of cadmium, lead and arsenic in agricultural black soil in Jilin Province, China

Potential ecological risk of cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb) and arsenic (As) in agricultural black soil in Jilin Province, China was analyzed by the methods of risk assessment based on dose–effect relationships and ecological risk index. Heavy Cd-contamination occurred mainly around the coal mine region. The accumulation area for Pb appeared mostly in the suburbs and roadsides, whereas the higher As content was mainly found in the farmland of suburb and coal mine vicinity. In acute toxicity test, Cd, Pb and As in the soil had adverse effects on both roots and shoots growth in soybean with the greatest toxicity of arsenic and the least toxicity of lead at the same concentration levels. Exposed to Cd, Pb and As, the EC₅₀ (50% effective concentration) values for the growth of soybean root (shoot) were 212.59 (376.70), 528.53 (828.69) and 194.60 (299.03) mg/kg, respectively. Results of potential ecological risk index showed that soil contamination from Cd in some samples had very high potential ecological risk; Pb contamination for almost all sampling sites had moderate ecological risk; while soil contamination from As had low ecological risk. With the present accumulation rate, concentrations of Cd, Pb and As in agricultural black soil near coal mine would reach the threshold values in 68, 175 and 120 years, respectively.     

金川镍铜铂硫化物矿床矿石成因——来自铂族元素地球化学的证据

对金川镍铜铂硫化物矿床Ⅰ、Ⅱ矿区主矿体典型钻孔中的不同类型矿石进行了系统观察和铂族元素分布特征研究。金川矿床中星点状矿石、网状矿石、块状矿石PGE 总量依次降低,由西至东24 号、1 号、2 号矿体的PGE 总量亦具渐次降低趋势。形成块状矿石的硫化物熔体PGE 分异作用较星点状和网状矿石更充分; 块状矿石铂族元素分布特征显示其受晚期硫化物熔体分离结晶和单硫化物固溶体( MSS) 分离作用控制。研究结果表明: 星点状矿石是岩浆分离结晶过程中较快速度冷凝和就地硫化物熔离的结果; 而网状矿石可能是硫化物熔体经深部熔离但未经充分的硫化物分离结晶作用贯入的产物; 块状矿石成因定量模拟结果排除了R 因子控制作用,不同矿体中块状矿石由不同程度的单硫化物固溶体( MSS) 分离结晶所形成。     

风成沙系统去除官厅水库水中化学需氧量的效果

试验表明 ,在水力负荷为 1 .0～ 1 .5m/d ,沙层湿干时间比为 1 2∶1 2 (h)条件下 ,风成沙污染水处理系统稳定后对化学需氧量 (CODCr)平均去除率约为 61 % ,CODCr<1 5mg/L ,优于《地表水环境质量标准 (GHZB1 -1 999)》规定的Ⅰ类标准。影响处理效果的因素主要有进水水质、沙层湿干时间比、水力负荷和滤层厚度等     

基于残差周期修正的辽宁省粮食产量灰色预测

基于1971—2005年辽宁省主要粮食作物水稻和玉米的全区平均单产资料,根据产量数据的多周期和波动性特点,采用周期修正残差值方法,构建了辽宁省粮食产量灰色预测模型,采用正弦曲线拟合残差序列,对模型的残差进行周期修正,预测精度提高。结果表明：预测＂十二五＂期间,辽宁省水稻在2013年以后出现小幅度下降,而单产绝对值仍处于一个相对较高的水平。玉米单产至2014年呈持续增产趋势,2015年略有下降,单产波动幅度较小。以2006—2009年实际产量数据对模型进行检验,效果较好。水稻单产预测模型精度为一级,玉米单产预测模型精度为二级。该模型对于大灾年份的粮食产量预测精度较差,但可反映其趋势。     

GPS/Pwv资料在强对流天气系统中的特征分析

应用GPS探测的可降水水汽资料Pwv对上海地区2002～2005年强对流的水汽变化特征进行了分析。分析表明：每30分钟一次的GPS/Pwv资料能直观地、及时地反映大气中水汽的时间变化和空间变化;GPS/Pwv资料随时间的演变特征与降水有较好的对应关系,不同的季节及不同的降水类型有着不同的分布特征;GPS/Pwv的散度资料可以反映大气中水汽的辐合、辐散分布情况。文章还给出了不同季节产生强对流天气的GPS/Pwv阈值,表明GPS/Pwv资料在强对流天气预报方面有一定的应用价值。     

基于标准化降水指数的近51a山东临沂市旱涝时空特征

基于1961—2011年临沂市10个气象观测站的逐月降水数据,采用标准化降水指数（SPI）,分析了临沂市旱涝时空分布特征。结果表明：临沂市旱涝变化具有阶段性特征,1960年代初中期和1970年代初中期,雨涝频繁;1960年代中后期和1970年代中后期及整个1980年代,干旱频繁;1990年代到21世纪初早期旱涝交替发生,2003年以后以雨涝为主。冬春季干旱呈弱的减轻趋势,秋旱呈弱加剧趋势,夏季旱涝变化趋势不明显。北部山区、西部丘陵、南部平原的旱涝变化总体上具有相对一致的趋势,但在1960年代中期、1980年代中期、21世纪初早期西部丘陵的旱涝变化幅度较其他2个区域要大。全市旱涝变率在21世纪初早期最大,1970年代中后期最小,3个区域的变率总体上表现出与全市大致相同的趋势,2004年以后南部平原旱涝变率持续增大。     

华北云凝结核分布及与云滴相互作用的观测研究

利用美国DMT公司生产的连续气流单过饱和度云凝结核计数器（DMT—CCN仪）,于2009年4月-7月在华北上空进行云凝结核观测,对不同天气现象下云凝结核的数浓度进行统计分析,研究了云凝结核的垂直分布特征以及水平穿云时云凝结核和云滴的相互作用和演变。     

Estimation of regional evapotranspiration in alpine area and its response to land use change: A case study in Three-River Headwaters region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

Three-River Headwaters(TRH) region involved in this paper refers to the source region of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River,the Huanghe(Yellow) River and the Lancang River in China.Taking the TRH region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as a case,the annual evapotranspiration(ET) model developed by Zhang et al.(2001) was applied to evaluate mean annual ET in the alpine area,and the response of annual ET to land use change was analyzed.The plant-available water coefficient(w) of Zhang’s model was revised by using vegetation-temperature condition index(VTCI) before annual ET was calculated in alpine area.The future land use scenario,an input of ET model,was spatially simulated by using the conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent(CLUE-S) to study the response of ET to land use change.Results show that the relative errors between the simulated ET and that calculated by using water balance equation were 3.81% and the index of agreement was 0.69.This indicates that Zhang’s ET model based on revised plant-available water coefficient is a scientific and practical tool to estimate the annual ET in the alpine area.The annual ET in 2000 in the study area was 221.2 mm,11.6 mm more than that in 1980.Average annual ET decreased from southeast to northwest,but the change of annual ET between 1980 and 2000 increased from southeast to northwest.As a vast and sparsely populated area,the population in the TRH region was extremely unbalanced and land use change was concentrated in very small regions.Thus,land use change had little effect on total annual ET in the study area but a great impact on its spatial distribution,and the effect of land use change on ET decreased with increasing precipitation.ET was most sensitive to the interconversion between forest and unused land,and was least sensitive to the interconversion between cropland and low-covered grassland.     

基于CMONOC建立和评估中国大陆地壳运动速度场模型

针对现有速度场模型采用数据少、现势性不强的问题,详细论述了速度场模型建立的数据获取与处理方法,利用中国大陆地壳运动监测网络中260个连续运行基准站2011~2015年的连续观测数据,采用GAMIT/GLOBK与GMT软件,获得高精度的定位及速度成果,并基于上述速度成果采用克里金插值法构建了中国大陆地壳运动速度场1°×1°格网模型。最后利用IERS公布的中国区域7个IGS站实测速度以及全国范围内均匀分布的陆态网络区域站实测速度,对模型内插结果进行检核,验证了模型的现势性、精确性和可靠性。