关于加强流变构造学研究的建议

流变学构造研究已成为21世纪固体地球科学的前沿领域。构造地质学作为固体地球科学各个分支领域的带动学科,需要以流变学的理论和研究方法武装自身,以便从根本上和真正意义上开展大陆地质和大陆动力学的研究,进而推动板块构造理论的进步和为创建崭新的超越板块构造的构造理论奠定基础。在论及开展构造地质和大陆地质的流变学研究的5点理由之后,本文提出了3项旨在加强流变学研究的建议,即:1)大陆流变构造的观测、分析和积累研究,2)实验研究和理论探索,3)基础理论学习与人才培养,供国内构造地质学界同仁讨论。     

The Relationship between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） and Climate Factors in the Semiarid Region： A Case Study in Yalu Tsangpo River Basin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The Yalu Tsangpo River basin is a typical semi-arid and cold region in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, where significant climate change has been detected in the past decades. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate how the regional vegetation, especially the typical plant types, responds to the climate changes. In this study, the model of gravity center has been firstly introduced to analyze the spatial-temporal relationship between NDVI and climate factors considering the time-lag effect. The results show that the vegetation grown has been positively influenced by the rainfall and precipitation both in moving tracks of gravity center and time-lag effect especially for the growing season during the past thirteen years. The herbs and shrubs are inclined to be influenced by the change of rainfall and temperature, which is indicated by larger positive correlation coefficients at the 0.05 confidence level and shorter lagging time. For the soil moisture, the significantly negative relationship of NDV-PDI indicates that the growth and productivity of the vegetation are closely related to the short-term soil water, with the correlation coefficients reaching the maximum value of o.81 at Lag 0-1. Among the typicalvegetation types of plateau, the shrubs of low mountain, steppe and meadow are more sensitive to the change of soil moisture with coefficients of -0.95, -0.93, -0.92, respectively. These findings reveal that the spatial and temporal heterogeneity between NDVI and climatic factors are of great ecological significance and practical value for the protection of eco-environment in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.     

认真学习、宣传、贯彻十六届三中全会精神大力创建"管天为民、追求卓越"为核心的气象文化--在全省气象文化建设工作会议结束时的讲话

首先,从历史的角度阐述了十六届三中全会的重大意义,认为江西气象部门应从围绕“一个目标”、树立“三个理念”、加快“两个建设”等角度来学习、宣传、贯彻落实十六届三中全会精神;其次,开创性地提出了“管天为民、追求卓越”的江西气象人精神,认为这是江西气象文化建设中最核心的精神层,并系统地阐述了江西气象文化是一个庞大的系统工程,应该重在建设,贵在创新;最后。对会议讨论时提出的几个问题进行了详尽的答复。     

Sentinel-1与Sentinel-2影像联合的黄河三角洲湿地信息提取

针对目前湿地信息提取中存在的“同物异谱”、“同谱异物”问题,以黄河三角洲自然保护区为实验区,采用在信息提取方面具有优势的典型相关森林算法,将Sentinel-1A雷达影像和Sentinel-2A多光谱影像作为基础数据,考察分别应用多光谱影像、合成孔径雷达(Synthetic Aperture Radar,SAR)和多光谱二者综合、SAR纹理特征以及植被指数对湿地信息提取的效果和适用性。研究结果表明:(1)基于Sentinel-2A多光谱影像,在分类方法上,典型相关森林(canonical correlation forest,CCF)的总体精度最高,达到94.32%,与支持向量机和随机森林分类算法相比分别提高了6.55%和5.47%;(2)基于Sentinel-2A多光谱影像和Sentinel-1A后向散射系数的CCF总体精度达到了94.89%,与只利用多光谱影像相比,3种算法的总体精度和Kappa系数均得到了提升;(3)在SAR和光学联合的基础上加入SAR纹理特征后总体精度和Kappa系数均略有下降,分别为94.72%和0.935 3;(4)在SAR和光学联合的基础上加入归一化差分植被指数(NDVI)、比值植被指数(RVI)、差值植被指数(DVI)、归一化差分红外指数(NDII)和差分红外指数(DII)5种植被指数后,总体精度达到了最高为95.35%,7种地物的生产者精度有所提高,有效提高了对黄河三角洲湿地信息的提取能力。实验结果可为黄河三角洲湿地的合理开发和有效保护提供科学支持。     

察尔汗盐湖S3盐层晶间卤水分异特征及成因的统计研究

1962年,苏联学者М.Г.Баляшко提出了干盐湖晶间卤水分异的成因理论一“重力垂直分异”说,后来,此理论被我国盐矿地质学家引用到察尔汗盐湖。本文首次在“系统论”思想指导下,及数理统计方法深入细致地研究了该湖S_3盐层晶间卤水分异特征,提出了新的晶间卤水分异成因理论—“阶段性淡化”说,具有重要的经济和理论意义。     

1970-2019年夏季南疆低空垂直速度与降水量时空变化特征

利用1970—2019年南疆59个气象观测站逐日降水资料及NCEP再分析月平均垂直速度资料，采用Mann-Kendall突变检验、小波分析、EOF分析等方法，分析夏季南疆上升运动和降水量的时空特征及相关关系。结果表明：近50 a夏季南疆降水量由“暖干”向“暖湿”转变，且在1990年发生突变，其具有5～10 a年际尺度和21～27 a、14～18 a年代际尺度的周期变化规律，空间上呈现北多南少、西多东少的分布特征。低空上升运动由弱转强，850 hPa上升运动在2004年发生突变，700 hPa无显著突变点，其年际及年代际尺度具有与降水相同的变化周期，空间上巴州及吐鲁番市部分区域上升运动减弱，降水量减少，其它区域上升运动增加，降水量增多，其中克州、喀什地区上升运动增加显著,降水量增加速率最大，达1.0 mm/a。低空上升运动和降水量呈显著正相关，且700 hPa相关性大于850 hPa。     

京藏高速民和至西宁段冬季路面与地面最低温度变化特征及影响分析

利用2018年1月1日至2020年12月冬季1月、2月和12月-次年2月逐日逐小时京藏高速民和至西宁段常规气象站和交通气象站逐日逐时气象观测资料,分析了冬季逐月平均路面最低温度和地面最低气温的日变化特征及其相关关系,建立了4站冬季各月路面最高温度和最低温度分别与地面最高温度和最低温度的相关性方程,旨在为路面温度精细化预报服务提供参考。结果表明：京藏高速民和至西宁路段4站冬季各月平均路面最低温度和地面最低温度冬季各月具有明显的日变化特征,平均路面最低温度和地面最低温度达到最低值和最高值的时间并不是完全相同；。常规气象站点平均地面最低温度日出/日落的变化速率要高于交通站点平均路面最低温度,并且平均地面最低温度的变化幅度要比路面最低温度变化幅度大。平均地温面最低温度的最高值比路面最低温度的最高值超前1～2h,常规气象站点逐小时地面最低温度＜0℃的时间维持15～18h,交通站点路面最低温度＜0℃的时间维持8～22h。应用统计学方法建立的朝阳站、汉庄站、高庙桥站和老鸦峡站最高和最低路面温度与最高和最低地面温度相关性方程具有很好的实际应用价值,可在实际业务工作中推广应用。     

汶川地震前远场形变异常及其与地震相关性研究

判定震前出现的形变显著异常是否与地震相关,是认识地震孕育过程及开展地震预测研究最为重要的基础问题.本文分析了汶川地震前一些显著形变异常特征,发现震前在震中区附近异常较少,而外围则较多.针对其中一些距离震中较远的异常,借助前兆异常与地震震中距、震级间物理统计模型,提出了远距离形变异常与地震关联的判别准则,给出了红柳峡跨断...     

南疆西部沙尘天气长期变化及突变特征分析

利用南疆西部15个国家气象站1961—2019年逐日沙尘天气资料，采用气候倾向率和统计检验等方法对南疆西部沙尘天气的时空变化特征进行分析。研究表明：春季为南疆西部沙尘暴及浮尘天气出现最多的季节、扬沙天气出现次多的季节，分别占全年沙尘暴、扬沙、浮尘的49%、38%、43%；夏季为扬沙天气出现最多的季节、是沙尘暴、浮尘天气出现次多的季节，分别占全年沙尘暴、扬沙、浮尘的35%、43%、35%；冬季为低频季节，发生占比分别为7%、6%、14%。南疆西部沙尘天气呈东多西少特征，山区沙尘天气日数明显少于平原，浮尘天气平原地区分布均匀，沙尘暴、扬沙平原东部和南部区域多于平原腹地。沙尘天气日数年际变化振幅较大，沙尘暴、扬沙、浮尘日数整体呈明显减少趋势。浮尘年际变化周期显著，其次为扬沙与沙尘暴，1984和1977年为沙尘暴、浮尘统计定义上的突变年份，扬沙存在2个突变点，分别为1982和1992年。沙尘暴和扬沙的主导风向为偏西北风，浮尘主导风向为偏东北风，主导风向与地形影响关联密切。     

Multi-hazard susceptibility mapping based on Convolutional Neural Networks

Multi-hazard susceptibility prediction is an important component of disasters risk management plan. An effective multi-hazard risk mitigation strategy includes assessing individual hazards as well as their interactions. However, with the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, multi-hazard susceptibility prediction techniques based on machine learning has encountered a huge bottleneck. In order to effectively solve this problem, this study proposes a multi-hazard susceptibility mapping framework using the classical deep learning algorithm of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). First, we use historical flash flood, debris flow and landslide locations based on Google Earth images, extensive field surveys, topography, hydrology, and environmental data sets to train and validate the proposed CNN method. Next, the proposed CNN method is assessed in comparison to conventional logistic regression and k-nearest neighbor methods using several objective criteria, i.e., coefficient of determination, overall accuracy, mean absolute error and the root mean square error. Experimental results show that the CNN method outperforms the conventional machine learning algorithms in predicting probability of flash floods, debris flows and landslides. Finally, the susceptibility maps of the three hazards based on CNN are combined to create a multi-hazard susceptibility map. It can be observed from the map that 62.43% of the study area are prone to hazards, while 37.57% of the study area are harmless. In hazard-prone areas, 16.14%, 4.94% and 30.66% of the study area are susceptible to flash floods, debris flows and landslides, respectively. In terms of concurrent hazards, 0.28%, 7.11% and 3.13% of the study area are susceptible to the joint occurrence of flash floods and debris flow, debris flow and landslides, and flash floods and landslides, respectively, whereas, 0.18% of the study area is subject to all the three hazards. The results of this study can benefit engineers, disaster managers and local government officials involved in sustainable land management and disaster risk mitigation.