“080527”湖北老河口短历时暴雨的中尺度天气成因分析

以2008年5月27日发生在湖北老河口的短历时暴雨为例,利用NCEP客观再分析资料,开展中尺度天气系统诊断分析。结果表明：干线、500 hPa冷温度槽、冷切尾部辐合区、中低层湿区及地面风场辐合线等中尺度天气系统的活动与暴雨发生、发展密切相关。干空气自北向南、自上而下侵入湿区,具有典型的湖北干侵入暴雨特征。干侵入使干冷空气与暖湿空气汇合上升,同时激发冷切尾部辐合区中的正涡度柱沿假相当位温锋区向上发展,配合地面中尺度辐合线,增强对流上升运动。500 hPa冷温度槽活动及干侵入造成垂直方向上对流不稳定,冷式切变线尾部由于冷暖平流、干湿平流交汇构成水平方向不稳定区,不稳定区受露点锋生扰动,从而触发强对流天气。中低层深厚湿区的维持和水汽辐合为老河口中尺度暴雨提供了水汽来源。     

华南沿海暖区辐合线暴雨地形动力机制数值模拟研究

华南沿海暖区暴雨是单一暖气团降水。本文采用客观分析方法确定暖区暴雨主要影响系统为两类辐合线低值系统:偏南向辐合线与西南向辐合线;此类辐合线系统具有强烈的辐合上升层次与暖心结构,是一类强烈的暖区暴雨天气系统。偏南向辐合线多出现在粤西沿海,而西南向辐合线多出现于粤东沿岸,分别具有短时团状与持续带状两类强降水。华南沿海地区山脉河口众多,其中珠江口以西的团状云雾山正面阻挡偏南向辐合线,河口以东的带状莲花山侧面阻挡西南向辐合线。利用WRF数值模式分别研究粤东和粤西山脉对两类辐合线及其暴雨的地形影响,包括正面阻挡和侧面摩擦。结果显示,将偏南向型辐合线所遇云雾山范围地形降低80%后,因正面阻挡缺失,辐合线及其降水向北推进,雨带强度减弱,形状改变。地形的正面阻挡促使低层辐合气流迅速抬升触发强降水。降水释放的凝结潜热,又加强系统的上升运动和暖心结构强度与层厚,进而增强暴雨。填充偏南向型狭管地形的试验显示,狭管效应构成对强降水位置和强度的直接强迫影响,加之与云雾山正面阻挡配合,两项作用造成粤西暴雨频繁特征。测试粤东西南向莲花山脉对西南向辐合线的侧向阻挡与摩擦效应,通过对比莲花山两种地表粗糙度环境模拟效果,获得显著的局地垂直上升速度差,显示粤东沿海山脉的侧向摩擦不仅增强西南辐合线强度也加强垂直上升运动强度,由于西南气流的持续,山脉走向与气流的配置,维持了降雨时长及雨带范围。同时对粤西近海西南辐合气流及河口的暴雨雨带也有连带增强与维持作用。进一步地山脉地形抬升以其抬升迅速,范围集中,层次深厚,而有别于锋面气团抬升。加之近海水汽充沛,抬升后中层凝结释放的配合,增强了辐合线低值系统强度,造成暖区降水雨强远高于华南锋面降水。     

地磁交汇法在地震预报中的应用

利用地磁交汇法较好地预报了2002年4月22日发生在河北邢台老震区的Ms5.0地震，实际震中与交汇点相距只有15km。结合以前取得的震例，认为此方法是一种较好的短期预报方法，特别是对未来震中的预测更显示出一定的优势。     

A stable and accurate Davies-like relaxation procedure using multiple penalty terms for lateral boundary conditions

A lateral boundary treatment using summation-by-parts operators and simultaneous approximation terms is introduced. The method is similar to Davies relaxation technique used in the weather prediction community and have similar areas of application, but is also provably stable. In this paper, it is shown how this technique can be applied to the shallow water equations, and that it reduces the errors in the computational domain.     

海洋动物适应性演化与多样性研究进展

海洋生物多样性是海洋生态系统的重要组成部分,了解海洋生物多样性的形成演化过程不仅是生命科学的本质问题,而且对海洋生物资源的保护和开发利用具有重要的指导意义.目前海洋生物多样性的形成演化机制尚不明确,而性状多样性的起源和适应性演化为回答海洋生物多样性的内源性机制提供了重要突破口.本文从演化发育生物学的角度综述了海洋动物适...     

西北太平洋TC高频源地与GMS-SST暖水区及ITCZ的匹配关系

利用GMS高精度遥感海表温度(SST)反演资料、外逸长波辐射(OLR)反演资料和西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)源地及频数数据,分析了GMS-SST、赤道辐合带(ITCZ)、TC源地及频数的时空分布特征。研究发现:TC源地、发生频数以及强度的时空分布和变化均具有趋暖性。GMS-SST大于等于28℃的阈值条件为西北太平洋TC发生和维持的必要条件。并且存在10°N高频收缩轴,其与由GMS-SST大于等于28℃所定义的西北太平洋暖水区,GMS-OLR小于等于240 W.m-2定义的ITCZ的时空分布及变化有很好的相关性,即存在TC高频源地—GMS-SST暖水区—ITCZ三者间的匹配相关。     

Some numerical experiences on convergence criteria for iterative finite element solvers

Several popular convergence criteria which are frequently used in practical finite element computations are investigated for two kinds of systems: the symmetric positive definite linear system and the symmetric indefinite system involving two distinct variables (displacement and pore fluid pressure). For the first system, the relative residual norm and the relative improvement norm are satisfactory as long as boundary fixities are handled appropriately. For the second system, the relative improvement norm must be adopted with greater care. It was further shown numerically that decoupled relative residual norms can be attractive alternates to the current global stopping criterion.     

2006年7月19-20日苏中地区强降水成因分析

对2006年7月19日至20日由冷空气影响造成的不均匀性降水,通过对天气背景、细网格模拟、云图和雷达回波的分析,揭示出:夏季冷空气从中低层影响不会造成大范围的强降水天气,而高层冷空气南下进入辐合带,易产生强的辐合上升气流,从而引发强对流天气。分析表明,在同一对流云团中,不同地点、不同时段的强降水的物理量特征会有所不同。     

印、澳板块边界分布与GPS资料用于对2004年Sumatra-Andaman岛地壳破裂测地学机制的再讨论

基于作者此前对印度尼西亚苏门答腊-安达曼岛地震测地学机制的讨论，进一步根据McCloskey等人应用的INDI板块与AUST板块之间大致呈SW（≈S5）-NE（≈N2）走向的板块边界划分模型，利用GPS站速度资料，估计了沿整个苏门答腊-尼科巴岛地壳破裂带INDI板块与Burma／SEEURA板块之间的板块聚敛率，并与基于NUVEL-1A模型的INDI、AUST板块边界的分布所估计的AUST板块与Burma／SEEURA板块问聚敛率结果作了比较；根据2004年印尼苏门答腊-安达曼岛地壳破裂特征，对该地壳破裂的测地学机制作了进一步讨论，认为基于NUVEL-1A模型的INDI、AUST板块边界分布条件下地壳破裂的测地学机制讨论和2004年主震由AUST板块运动触发的结论可能更符合2004年地壳破裂事件的观测结论。目前的Burma微板块的欧拉旋转参数可能不适合用于对该次地壳破裂事件的测地学估计和机制的讨论；INDI、AUST板块间的相对运动是这两者板块间造山带的主要动力源。     

Climate change in lowland Central America during the late deglacial and early Holocene

The transition from arid glacial to moist early Holocene conditions represented a profound change in northern lowland Neotropical climate. Here we report a detailed record of changes in moisture availability during the latter part of this transition (～11 250 to 7500 cal. yr BP) inferred from sediment cores retrieved in Lake Petén Itzá, northern Guatemala. Pollen assemblages demonstrate that a mesic forest had been largely established by ～11 250 cal. yr BP, but sediment properties indicate that lake level was more than 35 m below modern stage. From 11 250 to 10 350 cal. yr BP, during the Preboreal period, lithologic changes in sediments from deep‐water cores (>50 m below modern water level) indicate several wet–dry cycles that suggest distinct changes in effective moisture. Four dry events (designated PBE1‐4) occurred centred at 11 200, 10 900, 10 700 and 10 400 cal. yr BP and correlate with similar variability observed in the Cariaco Basin titanium record and glacial meltwater pulses into the Gulf of Mexico. After 10 350 cal. yr BP, multiple sediment proxies suggest a shift to a more persistently moist early Holocene climate. Comparison of results from Lake Petén Itzá with other records from the circum‐Caribbean demonstrates a coherent climate response during the entire span of our record. Furthermore, lowland Neotropical climate during the late deglacial and early Holocene period appears to be tightly linked to climate change in the high‐latitude North Atlantic. We speculate that the observed changes in lowland Neotropical precipitation were related to the intensity of the annual cycle and associated displacements in the mean latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and Azores–Bermuda high‐pressure system. This mechanism operated on millennial‐to‐submillennial timescales and may have responded to changes in solar radiation, glacial meltwater, North Atlantic sea ice, and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.