Feedback switching and the evolution of U.S. coastal management

Feedbacks occur when advocates engage to clarify the implementation of a policy innovation such as the requirement that federal activities be consistent with objectives of state coastal management plans. Discrete policy feedbacks include advocacy, litigation, appeals of decisions as well as other activities inserted into policy implementation by interests or government agencies acting in their behalf. Feedback analysis is applied to the time after the passage of the 1972 U.S. Coastal Zone Management Act. Conflicts after passage of the law resulted in a negative feedback in the form of a Supreme Court decision in 1984 and a subsequent positive feedback through the 1990 revision of the law effectively reversing the Court decision. New insights documented here suggest that feedback switching, wherein old disputes are moved to new arenas, provides the greatest opportunity for overcoming negative feedbacks that could diminish or eliminate the policy innovation. Furthermore observing feedbacks through time and across multiple policy spaces as demonstrated here provides a robust interpretation of policy evolution from a new perspective. This analysis demonstrates how feedbacks convert a voluntary state program into one with authority over certain federal actions. These findings will be important for other areas of coastal policy and, more broadly, policy evolution in general.     

Engineering behavior of uplifted Smectite‐rich Cochin and Mangalore marine clays

Abstract

The present study aims to assess whether the smectite‐rich Cochin and Mangalore clays, which were deposited in a marine medium and subsequently uplifted, exhibit consistency limits response typical of expanding lattice or nonexpanding (fixed) lattice‐type clays on artificially changing the chemical environment. The chemical and engineering behaviors of Cochin and Mangalore marine clays are also compared with those of the smectite‐rich Ariake Bay marine clay from Japan. Although Cochin, Mangalore, and Ariake clays contain comparable amounts of smectite (32–45%), Ariake clay exhibits lower consistency limits and much higher ranges of liquidity indices than the Indian marine clays. The lower consistency limits of the Ariake clay are attributed to the absence of well‐developed, long‐range, interparticle forces associated with the clay. Also, Ariake clay exhibits a significantly large (48–714 times) decrease in undrained strength on remolding in comparison to Cochin and Mangalore clays (sensitivity ranges between 1 and 4). A preponderance of long‐range, interparticle forces reflected in the high consistency limits of Cochin and Mangalore clays (w_L range from 75 to 180%) combined with low natural water contents yield low liquidity indices (typically <1) and high, remolded, undrained strengths and are considered to be responsible for the low sensitivity of the Indian marine clays.     

Dissolved oxygen criteria for freshwater fish in New Zealand: a revised approach

Maintenance of suitable conditions in lowland rivers for both fish passage and resident species is crucial to ensuring the long-term sustainability of fish populations. The dissolved oxygen concentration of water is a key factor controlling habitat quality for fish and a critical measure of stream health. Continued land use intensification and greater exploitation of water resources has contributed towards increasing the frequency and duration of low dissolved oxygen events in lowland rivers and the associated risk of adverse effects on fish communities. Revised guidelines are therefore proposed to support setting of biologically relevant dissolved oxygen limits for the protection of New Zealand freshwater fish communities. These guidelines account for both event magnitude and duration, identify different protection levels based on the risk of negative impacts and are based on current scientific knowledge on the tolerances of New Zealand fish species.     

Challenges of deep-sea biodiversity assessments in the Southern Ocean

Despite recent progress in deep-sea biodiversity assessments in the Southern Ocean （SO）, there remain gaps in our knowledge that hamper efficient deep-sea monitoring in times of rapid climate change. These include geographical sampling bias, depth and size-dependent faunal gaps in biology, ecology, distribution, and phylogeography, and the evolution of SO species. The phenomena of species patchiness and rarity are still not well understood, possibly because of our limited understanding of physiological adaptations and thresholds. Even though some shallow water species have been investigated physiologically, community-scale studies on the effects of multiple stressors related to ongoing environmental change, including temperature rise, ocean acidification, and shifts in deposition of phytoplankton, are completely unknown for deep-sea organisms. Thus, the establishment of long-term and coordinated monitoring programs, such as those rapidly growing under the umbrella of the Southern Ocean Observing System （SOOS） or the Deep Ocean Observing Strategy （DOOS）, may represent unique tools for measuring the status and trends of deep-sea and SO ecosystems.     

STUDYING THE INTERCONNECTION OF GROUND AND SURFACE WATERS IN REPRESENTATIVE BASINS UNDER THE PROGRAMME OF THE INTERNATIONAL HYDROLOGICAL DECADE

Abstract

Four geoelectrical soundings were measured with a combination of Schlumberger and azimuthal or equatorial dipole electrode arrays on a Carboniferous limestone basin of the Condroz area, Belgium. The measuring technique is briefly outlined as well as the interpretation procedure, which follows a closed-loop scheme with control of calculated model curves. Some general problems of interpretation of geoelectrical sounding curves are tackled, as far as they have a practical bearing on the treatment of Condroz soundings.

The problem of determining the very high resistivity of limestone is approached through ARCHIE's formula, an empirical relation between the bulk rock resistivity, the porosity and the electrolyte resistivity. An evaluation of the latter two parameters, combined with electrical horizontal conductance measurements directly made on resistivity sounding curves, offers a possibility for fast determination of the total water storage in a limestone aquifer. Such storage determinations could be applied whenever an aquifer shows up as a conductive layer interbedded between two highly resistant layers (e.g. nonsaturated limestone and compact, non-fractured limestone).     

“霍山窗”地区现代构造应力场研究

The focal mechanisms of 62 moderate-small earthquakes since 1980 in the ＂ Huoshan seismic window＂ region are calculated with the method developed recently by Snoke, combining the use of the first motion of P, SV and SH waves with their amplitude ratios. Based on these abundant focal mechanisms, the mean tectonic stress field in the ＂Huoshan seismic window＂ region is inverted with the average stress tensor method, and the result shows that the ＂Huoshan seismic window＂ region is horizontally compressed in the near EW direction and horizontally dilated in the near NS direction, which is in accord with statistical results of focal mechanism parameters. We estimate the difference （also referred to as consistency parameter 0） between the force axis direction of the focal mechanism solution and the mean stress tensor, then further analyze the variation characteristics of 0 versus time, and the relationship with moderately strong earthquakes in the east China region. The result indicates that 0 in the ＂ Huoshan seismic window＂ region is in good correspondence with moderately strong earthquakes in the East China region. When 0 is lower than the mean value, corresponding moderately strong earthquakes may occur in the East China region.     

On the variation of frequency-based rainfall amounts: a case study for evaluating recent extreme rainfalls in Korea

Extreme rainfall events recently occurring in Korea have been shown to change frequency-based rainfall amounts quite significantly. Regardless of the reason for these extremes, the general concern of most hydrologists is how to handle these events for practical applications in Hydrology. Our study aim is to evaluate these extremes with their effect on frequency-based rainfall amounts, especially if they can be assumed to be within normal levels. As there is no commonly accepted methodology to be applied to this kind of study, we follow simplified steps such as: (1) estimation of the climatological variance of frequency-based rainfall amounts, (2) estimation of confidence intervals of frequency-based rainfall amounts (lower and upper bounds for the 5 and 1% significance levels estimated using the climatological variance), and (3) evaluation of the effect of extra rainfall events on the frequency-based rainfall amounts. Twelve stations on the Korean peninsula are selected as they have relatively longer data length. The annual maximum rainfall data collected from 1954 to 1998 are used. From this study we concluded that (1) at least 30 years of data length should be used for the frequency analysis in order to assure the stability of the variance of frequency-based rainfall amounts, (2) the climatological variances estimated all range from 5 to 8% of the frequency-based rainfall amounts, and (3) even though the frequency-based rainfall amount seems to become extreme with seemingly abnormal events, it still remains under its upper bound for the 5 or 1% significance levels estimated using the climatological variance, as well as it decays exponentially to the normal level as extra events are added. Thus, we conclude that we do not need to panic over seemingly abnormal events occurring so far, but just need to consider the variability inherent in frequency-based rainfall amounts.     

海相碳酸盐岩烃源岩评价的有机碳下限问题

随着勘探程度的提高,深部石油天然气勘探在我国将越来越重要.我国碳酸盐岩地层分布广,埋藏深,其生烃评价是深部石油天然气勘探不可回避的问题.针对我国科学家在这一问题上的争论,提出了海相碳酸盐岩烃源岩评价的三个下限标准,即最低烃源岩的有机碳下限、有效烃源岩有机碳下限和形成大规模油气田的烃源岩有机碳下限.认为以往的争论是最低烃源岩、有效烃源岩下限的争论.通过文献整理、实验研究和计算,认为海相碳酸盐岩普遍存在的Ⅱ型有机质,其最低、有效油源岩的下限值可能在0.1%和0.4%左右,最低、有效气源岩下限可能在0.1%和0.3%左右,大规模油气田形成的TOC应在1%以上.     

Estimation of background levels of contaminants

Samples from hazardous waste site investigations frequently come from two or more statistical populations. Assessment of background levels of contaminants can be a significant problem. This problem is being investigated at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring Systems Laboratory in Las Vegas. This paper describes a statistical approach for assessing background levels from a dataset. The elevated values that may be associated with a plume or contaminated area of the site are separated from lower values that are assumed to represent background levels. It would be desirable to separate the two populations either spatially by Kriging the data or chronologically by a time series analysis, provided an adequate number of samples were properly collected in space and/or time. Unfortunately, quite often the data are too few in number or too improperly designed to support either spatial or time series analysis. Regulations typically call for nothing more than the mean and standard deviation of the background distribution. This paper provides a robust probabilistic approach for gaining this information from poorly collected data that are not suitable for above-mentioned alternative approaches. We assume that the site has some areas unaffected by the industrial activity, and that a subset of the given sample is from this clean part of the site. We can think of this multivariate data set as coming from two or more populations: the background population, and the contaminated populations (with varying degrees of contamination). Using robust M-estimators, we develop a procedure to classify the sample into component populations. We derive robust simultaneous confidence ellipsoids to establish background contamination levels. Some simulated as well as real examples from Superfund site investigations are included to illustrate these procedures. The method presented here is quite general and is suitable for many geological and biological applications.