Statistical models for the estimation of net phosphorus sedimentation in lakes

The empirical adequacy of four phosphorus mass-balance models is evaluated with respect to how the prediction error variance of the corresponding net sedimentation parameters is propagated in the steadystate equations. Using the criterion of minimum propagation error variance (PEV), different groups of lakes can be distinguished for which different empirical equations are used to predict net phosphorus sedimentation. The classification reduced prediction error significantly and also reflected different patterns of sedimentation. Application of this criterion to time-series of individual lakes shows that it is possible to determine a priori whether net annual sedimentation will be better correlated to the annual loading or to the lake content. The correlations depended also on the load/lake content ratio, suggesting that net sedimentation is best viewed as the sum of the partial sedimentation of the load and of the partial sedimentation of the lake content. On average, 25% of the load and 18% of the lake content are sedimented annually. Viewing net phosphorus sedimentation as a function of both the load and the lake content can also explain and predict the well-known cross-sectional correlation between phosphorus retention and water residence time.     

Seasonal and latitudinal distribution of trace gases in the stratosphere: Results from a 2D residual circulation model

Results for minor stratospheric constituents using a 2D model with self-consistent transport parameters are reported. The meridional circulation is obtained from the output of the MIT-GIT 3D stratospheric model (Cunnold et al., 1975). Consistent data from the same model are used to evaluate the diffusive tensors following the formalism of Holton (1981) and Tung (1982). Chemical damping is consequently taken into account, so that the entire model is built in a selfconsistent manner at the least with the 3D model and no ad hoc assumptions are made with respect of transport parameters. This version of the model represents a major improvement on previous work (Pitari and Visconti, 1984), which used to much too simple chemistry. Results are compared whenever possible with available experimental data, with particular emphasis on chemical reacting species. This comparison shows in general an agreement which is qualitatively similar to the one obtained from classical Eulerian models where transport parameters are often tuned to long-lived tracers without any sound physical basis.     

Contact conditions on seismoactive faults

Square plate models with a diagonally located slit in compression were studied photoelastically. The resulting stress field surrounding the discontinuity (slit) is evaluated before and after seismoactive (seismic-energy-releasing) shear displacement. The mechanism of the fast shear movement (stick-slip), including its radiation properties, in interpreted. The results confirm the existence of a central locked zone in the loaded slit, the limits of which coincide with the initiation points of stick-slip movements. The zone is interpreted as the source of the seismic energy release. The complementary measurements (direct optical and ultrasonic) are presented to verify the results of the photoelastic analysis. The results obtained are discussed in regard to the conclusions that follow from the theory of elasticity.     

Scale-dependent fractal dimensions of topographic surfaces: An empirical investigation, with applications in geomorphology and computer mapping

Fractional Brownian surfaces have been widely discussed as an appropriate model for the statistical behavior of topographic surfaces. The fractals model proposes that topographic surfaces are statistically self-similar, and that a single parameter, the fractal dimension, applies at all scales. This paper presents the results of empirical examinations of 17 topographic samples. Only one of these samples shows the statistical behavior predicted by the fractals model; however, in 15 of the 17 samples, the surfaces' variograms could be adequately described by ranges of scales having constant fractal dimension, separated by distinct scale breaks. For scale ranges between adjacent breaks, surface behavior should be that predicted by the fractals model; the breaks represent characteristic horizontal scales, at which surface behavior changes substantially. These scale breaks are especially important for cartographic representations and digital elevation models, since they represent scales at which there is a distinct change in the relation between sampling interval and the associated error.     

Digital topography of volcanoes from radar interferometry: an example from Mt Vesuvius,Italy

A new airborne radar technique can generate digital topographic data for volcanoes at a scale of 10 m spatial and 1–5 m vertical, with a swath width of 6.4 km. Called TOPSAR, the intrument is an interferometric radar flown on the NASA DC-8 aircraft. TOPSAR data permit the quantification of volcano slopes, volumes, and heights, and as such will be valuable for the analysis of lava flows, domes, and lahar channels. This instrument will be flown over several volcanoes in the near future, providing volcanologists with valuable data sets for the analysis of high-resolution topography. We briefly illustrate the potential use of TOPSAR data through examples from Mt Somma and Vesuvius, Italy.     

Testing of the IERS2000 Sub-Daily Earth Rotation Parameter Model

The differences between the new International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) 2000 and the previous IERS1996 sub-daily Earth rotation parameters (ERP) models can reach 0.1 mas (0.001 arc sec) and 0.1 mas/day. The largest differences are seen for the aliasing periods of 14.2 and 360 days, which correspond to the diurnal tidal waves of O1 and (K1, P1), respectively. Precise independent polar motion (PM) rate solutions effectively doubles the sampling rate and allows for effective testing of sub-daily ERP models and other periodical effects at the diurnal and semi-diurnal frequency bands. Since November 12, 2000, when the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Analysis Center of International GPS Service (IGS) has switched to the conventional IERS1996 sub-daily ERP model, from the older model of Herring and Dog (1994), the JPL daily PM rate solutions show no, or greatly reduced 14.2 day amplitude (O1) peaks. This confirmed that the anomalistic amplitudes at 14.2 day period seen for JPL PM solutions prior November 12, 2000 was largely due to the effects of the older sub-daily ERP model on independent PM rate solutions. As indicated by the latest IGS PM rate solutions, which were corrected for the IERS1996 and 2000 model differences, the new IERS2000 sub-daily ERP model is expected to perform equally well as the conventional IERS1996 model.     

Characterizing the rheology of laterite slurries

The viscous behaviour of laterite slurries was characterized by measurements of shear stress at constant and changing shear rates. Steady state stresses were obtained after accounting for the settling solids: the values show that the fluids possess viscosities of order 100 mPa s and are moderately shear-thinning, for solid volume fractions from 0.06 to 0.18 and for shear rates between 10 and 1000 s⁻¹. Transient stress measurements were made for steps down in shear rate and for ramps down and up in shear rate. It was found that the Bingham–Maxwell model provides good fits to the transient data, both at low concentrations, where yield behaviour is dominant, and at high concentrations, where elasticity is dominant. For volume fractions of 0.10 or greater, relaxation times were found from step tests to be of order 10 s, but relaxation times found from the ramp tests were generally several times higher.     

Functional series TARMA modelling and simulation of earthquake ground motion

The non‐stationary Functional Series time‐dependent autoregressive moving average (TARMA) modelling and simulation of earthquake ground motion is considered. Full Functional Series TARMA models, capable of modelling both resonances and antiresonances, are examined for the first time via a novel mixed parametric/non‐parametric estimation scheme, and critical comparisons with pure TAR and recursive ARMA (RARMA)‐recursive maximum likelihood (RML) adaptive filtering type modelling are made. The study is based upon two California ground motion signals: a 1979 El Centro accelerogram and a 1994 Pacoima Dam accelerogram. A systematic analysis, employing various functional subspaces and model orders, leads to two Haar function based models: a TARMA(2,4)₈ model for the El Centro case and a TARMA(6,2)₁₀ model for the Pacoima Dam case. Both models are formally validated and their simulation (synthesis) capabilities are demonstrated via Monte Carlo experiments focusing on important time domain signal characteristics. The Functional Series TAR/TARMA models are shown to achieve parsimony, as well as superior accuracy and simulation capabilities, over their RARMA counterparts. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

基于GIS的地下水模拟可视化系统开发的初步探讨

系统开发的目的是克服GIS时空分析能力的不足，实现地下水模型与MAPGIS的耦合集成，在集成的基础上构建系统的可视化功能，在GIS平台上为地下水模拟的全过程提供一个统一高效的计算机环境。系统开发采用面向对象的软件开发方法，对各种地下水模型进行分解、抽象，建立基本的C＋＋类类型，每个模型都是基本类及其派生类对象的聚集类。系统实现的技术途径是以MAPGIS的二次开发函数作为“后台”支持，以VC＋＋作为编程工具，在充分利用MAPGIS的可视化功能的基础上，借助于OpenGL并应用科学可视化技术开发更能满足地下水模拟需要的可视化功能。