立式储液罐地震破坏快速评估方法

本文采用大型有限元程序ANSYS对立式储液罐的地震反应进行了非线性数值分析,考虑了罐体和内部液体的相互作用,得到了3个不同容积的储罐,在不同峰值的地震动时程输入下的反应结果。结合地震灾害中立式储罐的地震破坏现象和特点,以及现有的立式储罐地震破坏预测方法,提出了立式储罐的地震破坏快速评估方法。     

贵州冰雹灾害强度评估方法研究

【目的】为快速评估单次过程冰雹强度和范围,及时为灾后的救援、勘察和保险核灾工作提供参考依据,【方法】本文利用贵州省2021-2023年间的141次冰雹过程的多普勒天气雷达资料和探空资料,结合降雹观测资料和灾害损失调查记录,在贵州山区防雹业务预报预警指标的框架下,通过历史资料回算的定性评估结果跟网格化处理后的降雹数据做一致性对比,选取冰雹强度精细化评估的影响结果覆盖94%以上的降雹观测点位置且收敛性较好的阈值作为单时次的识别指标确定的依据,采用加权时间积分方法建立冰雹过程评估模型,该模型能够对冰雹过程进行精细化评估得到1km空间分辨率的评估结果。【结果】为验证评估结果的准确性,选取了一次典型灾害开展无人机遥感调查,反演结果与评估结果作对比检验,25处冰雹受灾位置中有22处降雹区位于评估范围的重度区域内,3处降雹区位于评估结果对应的中度灾害范围内,调查情况与冰雹精细化评估的强度范围和分布一致。以六盘水市风雹灾害损失记录和冰雹影响面积区域评估数据作对比分析,结果表明三种不同冰雹强度的评估面积与直接经济损失数据的两两相关系数均达到0.8以上,在0.01的显著性水平下进行假设检验,具有显著正相关。【结论】检验结果说明该评估方法在冰雹区域强度评估中能够较好地反映实际受灾程度。     

哈大城市带网络结构韧性演化研究

网络结构韧性是城市空间组织未来发展的重要指向,是社会经济稳定性与恢复力的结构保障。论文借鉴复杂网络指标,构建城市网络结构韧性演化评价模型,以哈大城市带为例,对比分析多重城市网络结构韧性的演化特征。结果表明：① 多重城市网络层级性与匹配性存在分异,在层级性上,交通和金融网络趋于扁平,信息和创新网络趋于立体;在匹配性上,交通和创新网络分别表现为同配性与异配性且特征强化,金融和信息网络为异配性但特征削弱。② 网络结构韧性类型相对稳定,交通运输网络为“同配—核心边缘网络”,金融、信息与创新网络为“韧性网络”;韧性演化综合水平表现为创新合作网络>信息关联网络>0>金融联系网络>交通运输网络。③ 可以从整体结构、片区差异和要素流动三方面优化网络结构韧性演化水平。     

Application and comparison of two symptom-based eutrophication-assessment methods in Jiaozhou Bay,China

Increasing numbers of approaches to assess eutrophication, such as estuarine trophic status, the Oslo-Paris Commission Common Procedure, and the Water Framework Directive, focus on the symptoms of eutrophication. In China, however, nutrient index methods dominate the assessment of coastal waters. In this study, an integrated method that includes both water quality and ecological response was compared with the Northwest Pacifi c Action Plan (NOWPAP) Common Procedure. Observation data from Jiaozhou Bay, Shandong, China, were used in a comparison of the two methods in a trophic status study. Overall, both clearly revealed a high level of nutrient enrichment in the bay, indicated by high nutrient concentrations. Though the two methods diff ered in their methodological design in the assessment of the ecological eff ects of nutrient enrichment, they have acquired similar results: the integrated method suggested that the status was good, and the NOWPAP Common Procedure suggested that the status was low (indicating that the bay had no serious eutrophication problem). The introduction of fi lter feeders (shellfi sh aquaculture) into the bay on a reasonable scale may have been eff ective in mitigating eutrophic conditions, and perhaps explains the low ecological impacts there. Our results will be useful to ecosystem-based eutrophication management in the bay and in similar areas.     

全球气候变化背景下海岸洪水灾害风险评估研究进展与展望

全球气候变化背景下,海平面上升以及高潮位和风暴潮引起的极值水位导致的海岸洪水对沿海社会经济和自然环境造成巨大影响,已是国内外关注的重点。论文梳理了广义和狭义海岸洪水的定义和要素,重点阐述了狭义海岸洪水的组成部分,从致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体以及风险评估方法与模型3个方面,系统总结了相关研究方法与研究成果的主要进展,以及存在的主要问题,并透视了未来拟加强的研究方向。建议加强沿海地区应对全球气候变化风险的研究,包括全球气候变化下多致灾因子耦合危险性和不确定性研究,沿海关键地区和关键暴露(关键基础设施)的风险评估研究,全球气候变化风险适应与减缓性措施的成本效益评价研究,提高沿海地区应对全球气候变化风险的韧性研究,以及建立多学科间的基础数据共享机制,采用交叉学科手段以便更综合、系统、动态研究海岸带问题,保障沿海地区开展全球气候变化下风险评估的需要。     

The spatial local accuracy of land cover datasets over the Qiangtang Plateau,High Asia

We analyzed the spatial local accuracy of land cover (LC) datasets for the Qiangtang Plateau, High Asia, incorporating 923 field sampling points and seven LC compilations including the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme Data and Information System (IGBPDIS), Global Land cover mapping at 30 m resolution (GlobeLand30), MODIS Land Cover Type product (MCD12Q1), Climate Change Initiative Land Cover (CCI-LC), Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC2000), University of Maryland (UMD), and GlobCover 2009 (Glob-Cover). We initially compared resultant similarities and differences in both area and spatial patterns and analyzed inherent relationships with data sources. We then applied a geographically weighted regression (GWR) approach to predict local accuracy variation. The results of this study reveal that distinct differences, even inverse time series trends, in LC data between CCI-LC and MCD12Q1 were present between 2001 and 2015, with the exception of category areal discordance between the seven datasets. We also show a series of evident discrepancies amongst the LC datasets sampled here in terms of spatial patterns, that is, high spatial congruence is mainly seen in the homogeneous southeastern region of the study area while a low degree of spatial congruence is widely distributed across heterogeneous northwestern and northeastern regions. The overall combined spatial accuracy of the seven LC datasets considered here is less than 70%, and the GlobeLand30 and CCI-LC datasets exhibit higher local accuracy than their counterparts, yielding maximum overall accuracy (OA) values of 77.39% and 61.43%, respectively. Finally, 5.63% of this area is characterized by both high assessment and accuracy (HH) values, mainly located in central and eastern regions of the Qiangtang Plateau, while most low accuracy regions are found in northern, northeastern, and western regions.

     

上海洋山建港后港域夏季水文泥沙状况分析

对2007年9月17-26日在上海洋山港海域固定观测点(平均水深13 m)观测得到的水文泥沙要素,以及悬沙和底质样品分析.分析结果为:1)港域有效波高0.21-1.37 m(风速0.6～14.0 m/s),平均0.61 m(平均风速5.5 m/s).平静天气(平均风速小于5.0 m/s)下,波高随水深变化,两者的相关系数为0.899;而在强风天气下,波高受风况控制.2)最大表层流速超过2.00 m/s.大潮涨潮流占优势,小潮时落潮流占优势;与北岛链汉道封堵前相比,大潮涨、落潮平均流速分别减小15%和30%,小潮涨、落潮平均流速均减小30%～40%.各层余流均为西北方向,与涨潮流方向一致;垂向平均余流速0.11 cm/s,表层达0.25 m/s.3)离底高程1.35 m层和0.35m层最大悬沙浓度均大于3 kg/m3,两层平均悬沙浓度分别为0.89和0.95 kg/m3.无论大潮还是小潮涨潮悬沙浓度均大于落潮,这种现象在大潮时更为显著,潮周期中最大悬沙浓度出现在涨急.与工程前相比悬沙浓度明显降低,大、小潮降低均达20%.4)港区底质平均粒径9.0μm,工程后有变细的趋势.     

Impacts of maintenance channel dredging in a northern Adriatic coastal lagoon. II: Effects on macrobenthic assemblages in channels and ponds

Coastal lagoons are ephemeral habitats whose conservation requires human intervention, such as maintenance dredging of inner channels. Dredging can reduce the abundance of benthic species due to the removal of individuals with the sediment, modify sediment properties, and resuspend fine sediment, nutrients and pollutants, which can lead to eutrophication, hypoxic events and increasing toxicity. Both direct effects in the dredged channel and possible indirect effects in surrounding shallow areas could be expected. This study assesses the effects of the channel maintenance dredging, performed between October 2004 and August 2005, on the invertebrate assemblages both in channels and adjacent ponds in the northern Adriatic coastal lagoon of Pialassa Baiona. The lagoon is affected by eutrophication, chemical and thermal pollution from wastewater treatment and power plants. Three impacted sites were located in the dredged channel and three in the adjacent interconnected shallow water ponds, while three non-impacted sites were located in a channel and in a pond far from the dredged area. Replicate samples were collected from each site one time before and one time after the dredging operations. Despite the extent of the intervention, effects of the dredging on macrobenthic assemblages were detected only within the dredged channel, while in the surrounding ponds no clear and unequivocal effects were found. In particular the dredging could have promoted the increase of the abundance of the polychaete Streblospio shrubsolii in the southern and central parts of the dredged channel and the increase in abundance of the amphipod Corophium insidiosum in the northern side, compared to the controls. Instead, species diversity was reduced in the central and northern parts of the dredged channel. These effects on the macrobenthic invertebrate assemblages could be related to the observed changes of sediment characteristics, contamination and toxicity. Overall, direct effects on benthic assemblages in the dredged channels were more detectable than the possible secondary effects in the surrounding shallow ponds, where the higher spatial heterogeneity can mask any relevant effects.     

Estimating the economic impact of the Prestige oil spill on the Death Coast (NW Spain) fisheries

This paper presents an estimation of the economic effects of the Prestige oil spill in Galicia, focusing on the Death Coast fisheries and using fish landings as a market technique. Examining the evolution of landings in the Death Coast before and after the accident, the analysis reveals two opposing trends, with landings of some species increasing and those of other species diminishing.     

A Global Reliability Assessment Method on Aging Offshore Platforms with Corrosion and Cracks

Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms. For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms, a global reliability assessment approach for aging offshore platforms with corrosion and fatigue cracks is presented in this paper. The base shear capacity is taken as the global ultimate strength of the offshore platforms. It is modeled as a random process that decreases with time in the presence of corrosion and fatigue crack propagati...