Mapping global patterns of drought risk: An empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of hazard,exposure and vulnerability

A global map of drought risk has been elaborated at the sub-national administrative level. The motivation for this study is the observation that little research and no concerted efforts have been made at the global level to provide a consistent and equitable drought risk management framework for multiple regions, population groups and economic sectors. Drought risk is assessed for the period 2000–2014 and is based on the product of three independent determinants: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Drought hazard is derived from a non-parametric analysis of historical precipitation deficits at the 0.5°; drought exposure is based on a non-parametric aggregation of gridded indicators of population and livestock densities, crop cover and water stress; and drought vulnerability is computed as the arithmetic composite of high level factors of social, economic and infrastructural indicators, collected at both the national and sub-national levels. The performance evaluation of the proposed models underlines their statistical robustness and emphasizes an empirical resemblance between the geographic patterns of potential drought impacts and previous results presented in the literature. Our findings support the idea that drought risk is driven by an exponential growth of regional exposure, while hazard and vulnerability exhibit a weaker relationship with the geographic distribution of risk values. Drought risk is lower for remote regions, such as tundras and tropical forests, and higher for populated areas and regions extensively exploited for crop production and livestock farming, such as South-Central Asia, Southeast of South America, Central Europe and Southeast of the United States. As climate change projections foresee an increase of drought frequency and intensity for these regions, then there is an aggravated risk for global food security and potential for civil conflict in the medium- to long-term. Since most agricultural regions show high infrastructural vulnerability to drought, then regional adaptation to climate change may begin through implementing and fostering the widespread use of irrigation and rainwater harvesting systems. In this context, reduction in drought risk may also benefit from diversifying regional economies on different sectors of activity and reducing the dependence of their GDP on agriculture.     

中国北极航线港口界定

随着北冰洋夏季冰层的逐渐消融,北极航线有望全线通航。北极航线的通航将促进东亚与欧洲、北美地区的贸易往来,从而降低传统航线的地位及作用,为我国战略资源采购提供新的通道;同时也将在一定程度上改变北极航线沿线及其延长线上港口的地位及布局,但不同港口受此影响不尽相同,只有部分港口可能因为北极航线的利用实现地位提升。在假定北极航线全线开通的基础上提出北极航线港口概念,以港口所在城市的进出口贸易总额为基本界定指标,以航程缩短程度、航线密度、港口外贸箱吞吐量和港口油气吞吐能力作为竞争性界定指标进行综合评价,筛选出符合标准的中国北极航线港口,为中国利用北极航线和未来沿海港口布局提供借鉴及参考。     

基于物质流分析的城市工业经济脱钩问题研究——以天津市2001-2012年面板数据为例

随着经济的快速发展,资源约束下环境问题日益突出,生态文明建设要求社会经济系统在物质增长的同时,环境和资源日益改善以满足循环经济的发展需求。当前经济增长与环境资源状况呈现耦合关系,违背了可持续发展的要求和目标。结合天津市工业系统物质流指标,分析其当前经济耦合程度,采用物质流输入输出指标进行脱钩分析,并对主要指标的组成部分分别赋予权重,基于指数时间序列的指标组成部分进行脱钩分析。结果表明,实现工业经济脱钩的关键在于从化石能源开采、金属矿产使用等方面转变经济发展方式,达到工业系统的碳排放、废弃物及水体污染减排目标,以实现工业经济系统的可持续发展及保障生态文明建设的顺利实施。     

连续降温对大菱鲆(Scophthalmus maximus)成鱼血清生化指标及Wap65-1基因表达的影响

将大菱鲆(Scophthalmus maximus)从正常养殖水温18°C快速连续降温至1°C,并在18、13、8、5、3和1°C共计6个温度点取血采样,分别测定血清中的谷丙转氨酶(ALT)、肌酐(CR)、乳酸脱氢酶(LDH)、血糖(GLU)、皮质醇以及不同组织中Wap65-1基因的表达量。结果发现,随着温度降低,大菱鲆的血清ALT活性呈升高的趋势,且在8—1°C区间内显著高于18—13°C区间(P0.05);血清CR浓度呈升高的趋势,在3°C时最高,且显著高于除1°C之外的其它实验(P0.05);血清中LDH活性呈先升高后降低的趋势,在13—5°C区间内显著高于其它实验组(P0.05);血清GLU浓度呈先升高后降低的趋势,在8—3°C区间内显著高于其它实验组(P0.05);血清皮质醇浓度呈升高的趋势,在1°C时最高,且显著高于其它实验组(P0.05)。连续降温过程中,大菱鲆所有组织Wap65-1基因在特定温度下表达量都有上调(脑、胃、肝脏、头肾、肾脏、脾脏、肌肉、肠道、心脏)。其中,脑、胃、头肾、肾脏和心脏组织中的Wap65-1基因在正常温度下基本不表达,只在降温过程中表达;肝脏、脾脏、肠道和肌肉这4种组织中的Wap65-1基因在正常温度下有所表达,且在降温过程中表达量显著升高(P0.05)。     

A critical analysis on the response of macroinvertebrate communities along disturbance gradients: description of MEDOCC (MEDiterranean OCCidental) index

Macroinvertebrate communities inhabiting shallow sandy bottoms from Catalonia and Balearic Islands coastal waters (Western Mediterranean) were used to develop the Mediterranean Occidental (MEDOCC) index, a new methodology to assess the ecological status (ES) according to Water Framework Directive (WFD) requirements. The dominance pattern of four ecological groups (EG; sensitive, indifferent, tolerant and opportunistic organisms) was studied along a disturbance gradient. Sensitive taxa were present in disturbed situations and tolerant species were related to opportunistic taxa. The thresholds between ES were scaled according to the shifts in the dominance pattern of the EGs. The distribution of the EGs along the gradient of disturbance may vary depending on the studied communities, thus influencing the boundaries defining the ES. With the development of the MEDOCC index it is shown that analysing the response of the communities to the increasing gradient of disturbance is critical to enable an accurate proposal for boundary setting to be made, and to improve the applicability of the indices. AMBI (AZTI Marine Biotic Index), Bentix (Biotic Index), and MEDOCC indices were applied to the dataset to compare the ES obtained.     

Ecosystem modelling in the southern Benguela: comparisons of Atlantis,Ecopath with Ecosim,and OSMOSE under fishing scenarios

Ecosystem-based management of marine fisheries requires the use of simulation modelling to investigate the system-level impact of candidate fisheries management strategies. However, testing of fundamental assumptions such as system structure or process formulations is rarely done. In this study, we compare the output of three different ecosystem models (Atlantis, Ecopath with Ecosim, and OSMOSE) applied to the same ecosystem (the southern Benguela), to explore which ecosystem effects of fishing are most sensitive to model uncertainty. We subjected the models to two contrasting fishing pressure scenarios, applying high fishing pressure to either small pelagic fish or to adult hake. We compared the resulting model behaviour at a system level, and also at the level of model groups. We analysed the outputs in terms of various commonly used ecosystem indicators, and found some similarities in the overall behaviour of the models, despite major differences in model formulation and assumptions. Direction of change in system-level indicators was consistent for all models under the hake pressure scenario, although discrepancies emerged under the small-pelagic-fish scenario. Studying biomass response of individual model groups was key to understanding more integrated system-level metrics. All three models are based on existing knowledge of the system, and the convergence of model results increases confidence in the robustness of the model outputs. Points of divergence in the model results suggest important areas of future study. The use of feeding guilds to provide indicators for fish species at an aggregated level was explored, and proved to be an interesting alternative to aggregation by trophic level.     

Evaluating sustainability of community endeavours in an Indian floodplain wetland using multi‐criteria decision analysis

The floodplain wetlands of Ganga‐Ichamati interfluves in India have become severely degraded due to incessant, unsustainable utilization practices and lack of community awareness. In spite of the wetlands being the prime source of livelihood for millions, no comprehensive management strategy to accommodate the diverse aspirations and priorities of different users has been implemented for the wetlands to date. In this paper, the authors applied a framework of criteria and indicators to evaluate the status of sustainability achieved by community endeavours in one such wetland. The priorities, consumption patterns and contributions towards wetland conservation of major user groups functioning in that area were assessed by the framework developed through participatory multi‐criteria decision analysis. Results show the deteriorating status of the wetland at present regarding biodiversity conservation and livelihood generation. Fishing activities were identified as the dominant utilization option here followed by agriculture. The paper further explored the preferred alternative utilization strategies for achieving sustainability. Effectiveness of the developed framework in evaluating the extent of sustainability achieved in community endeavours was also highlighted in this context.     

Spatio-temporal dynamics of regulating ecosystem services in Europe – The role of past and future land use change

Land use is a main driver for changes in supply and demand of regulating ecosystem services (ES). Most current ES inventories are static and do not address dynamics of ES supply resulting from historic and future land use change. This paper analyzes the role of land use change for the supply of two regulating services, flood regulation and climate regulation, in the European Union (EU) for the period between 1900 and 2000 as well as for four plausible scenarios of future land use change up to 2040. We show that spatio-temporal dynamics of climate regulation are high during this time period, and that future levels of climate regulation are higher than 100 years ago. For flood regulation, we show that increases in the demand over the past century, which are continued in the future scenarios, are the main contributor for spatial mismatches of supply and demand. Our results indicate that, in spite of land use change, the overall supply of the two regulating services is expected to be moderately stable, or to even increase in the coming decades. At the same time, demands for these services are rapidly increasing, and it is unlikely that projected supply is sufficient to meet these demands. The results also indicate that land use allocation that favors the supply of regulating services can be seen as a nature-based solution in which potentials for synergies between multiple ES can be operationalized.     

Using selected pharmaceutical compounds as indicators for surface water and groundwater interaction in the hyporheic zone of a low permeability riverbank

This study investigates the applicability of selected pharmaceutical compounds (e.g. sulfamethoxazole, carbamazepine, ibuprofen) as anthropogenic indicators for the interaction of surface water and groundwater in the hyporheic zone of an alluvial stream. Differences in transport behaviour and the resulting distribution of the pharmaceuticals in the riverine groundwater were evaluated. The investigated field site in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, Europe is represented by low permeable sediments and confined aquifer conditions. Water samples from single‐screen and multilevel observation wells installed in the riverbank at the field site were taken and analysed for selected pharmaceuticals and major ions for a period of 6 months. Surface water and groundwater levels were recorded to detect effluent and influent aquifer conditions. Nearly all pharmaceuticals that were detected in the stream were also found in the riverine groundwater. However, concentrations were significantly lower in groundwater than in surface water. A classification into mobile and sorbing/degradable pharmaceuticals based on their transport relevant properties was made and verified by the field data. Gradients with depth for some of these pharmaceuticals were documented and a more detailed understanding of the system stream/riverbank was obtained. It was demonstrated that the selected pharmaceutical compounds can be used as anthropogenic indicators at the investigated field site. However, not all compounds seem to be suitable indicators as their transport behaviour is not fully understood. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.