太阳系天体的火山作用及其比较行星学意义

火山活动是太阳系内所有行星和多数卫星共同经历过的地质作用.类地行星及它们的卫星表面普遍分布着多种火山和火山岩.其中金星、火星和月球与地球上的早期(始太古代)火山活动有许多相似性.现在,火星与月球上的火山活动早已停止,而金星和地球上仍有火山活动.类木行星的卫星上主要活动的是"冰火山",它们之中有些还有十分强烈的活火山活动(如爱莪和海卫一).对太阳系天体火山作用的对比研究能够提供认识太阳系和行星演化、天体深部和浅部地质作用过程、矿产资源形成以及生命的起源和演化等重要信息,是比较行星学的重要组成部分.     

山东省沿海冬春季海陆大风对比分析

利用山东省划分的沿海12个海区代表站和部分海岛站资料,6艘渤海和黄海救助船资料,验证了2010年11月以来冬春季海区大风过程(≥6级)中,烟台北部沿海和威海南部沿海站大风资料的可用性,并对渤海湾、渤海中部海区、黄海北部海区和山东沿海大风进行了对比分析,得到以下结论:(1)渤海湾海区,滨州北部和东营北部沿海站均比海面风速偏小。(2)渤海中部海区,当天气系统为低槽冷锋时,东营东部、潍坊北部、烟台北部和烟台西部沿海站均比海面风速偏小。(3)黄海北部海区,在统计时段内,成山头站非常接近海面风速,其次是长岛县大黑山比海面风速小3 m·s-1左右。     

相似路径台风Soudelor(1513)与Matmo(1410)登陆前后的降水分布特征及成因的对比分析

利用欧洲气象中心（ERA-interim）再分析资料以及中国气象局观测站点的实况降水观测结合CMORPH卫星反演的逐时降水资料,对比分析了路径类似的1513号台风Soudelor和1410号台风Matmo在登陆福建前后期间的降水分布特征以及造成登陆台风暴雨强度和落区差异的原因,得到以下初步结论:Soudelor和Matmo移动路径相似,但在登陆福建的过程中对浙、闽地区造成的降水强度和分布差异明显,如Soudelor造成的总降水强度比Matmo大,且Soudelor的强降水在登陆前主要分布在台风路径的右侧,台风中心的偏北方向,登陆以后主要在台风的偏北以及东北方向;而Matmo登陆前降水基本均匀分布在路径两侧,强降水区位于台风中心的西北方向,登陆福建以后向北移动的过程中强降水区转向台风中心的北边;不同的大尺度环流背景也会导致登陆过程中不同的降水分布特征,Soudelor影响期间副热带高压比较强盛,并阻断它与中纬度西风槽的作用,而Matmo登陆北上过程中逐渐减弱并汇入河北上空的西风槽中,所以登陆后期Matmo的降水比Soudelor强;Soudelor和Matmo台风登闽前后低层水汽输送及东风急流差异是导致大暴雨落区差异的原因之一,Matmo的水汽输送主要来自孟加拉湾及南海,而Soudelor登陆前东部有来自另一个台风Molave的水汽输送,登陆后强水汽输送通量区及水汽辐合带位于Soudelor偏北侧,这与Soudelor登陆造成的暴雨在中心偏北方向一致;南亚高压相对于台风的位置也会影响降水,Soudelor登陆时,大兴安岭上空大槽前的偏西风急流与南部高压西北侧的西南急流一起使得它登陆后减弱速度变缓,有利于台风暴雨的维持,而Matmo高空受急流造成的气旋性切变流场加速了台风的减弱;此外,台风自身的结构和强度变化以及登陆后维持时间不同也是造成两次过程降水差异的主要原因之一,台风暖心结构的强度以及台风高层暖心减弱的速度对台风降水有一定影响,但对登陆时台风暴雨的不对称分布影响较小;Soudelor登闽过程中,涡度场强度比Matmo大,且维持一个深厚的垂直对称结构,登闽后期附近的辐合上升气流主要位于中心东侧,而Matmo在登闽过程中,低层的强辐合区和上升运动区始终偏西,造成二者降水分布的不同。     

Acceptance of the international compensation regime for tanker oil pollution – And its implications for China

The international compensation regime for tanker oil pollution has been successful in providing adequate and prompt compensation to pollution victims in its member states. Nevertheless, the attitudes of different countries toward acceptance of this regime have varied considerably. This paper aims to explain three main factors in the acceptance of the regime, including: (1) The level of economic development; (2) the risk of exposure to tanker oil spills; and (3) the financial burden associated with adherence to the International Oil Pollution Compensation Fund (IOPC). Using both fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis and an Ordered Probit model, this study found two patterns causing upper-middle and high income countries to have a high acceptance level: (a) Those facing a medium risk of oil spills and having a low financial burden; and (b) those facing a high risk of oil spills. The study reveals that, for a country with a high risk of exposure to tanker oil spills, such as China, with its improvement in economic status it is far better for it to join the IOPC Fund, so as to provide better protection both for potential pollution victims and for the marine environment. The results of this study can also be applied to other countries that are considering whether or not to accept the international compensation regime for tanker oil pollution.     

江苏省能见度的人工与自动观测差异分析

对江苏省2011年全年逐时能见度的自动、人工观测数据进行了统计分析,结果表明:二者具有相当一致的统计特征,全省总相关系数0.73,一致率95.03%;但亦存在一定差异,整体上人工较自动观测数据偏大数公里,偏大程度在17%~55%,且空间差异显著;对不同条件下能见度的对比分析显示,自动与人工观测在低能见度条件下最为接近,且二者差异存在着明显的日变化特征;对能见度自动与人工观测偏差长序列的初步分析,显示统计订正是可能的,但对于不同级别的能见度,自动观测相对与人工有不同的倾向。     

探空气球漂移位置订正在MM5模式中的应用研究

通过对模式MM5V37中客观分析系统加以改进,并采用包含有实际探空气球在各个气压层上精确的经纬度信息的新型探空资料,加以研究探空资料随高度的漂移对高分辨率中尺度数值模式MM5V37的影响。通过对一次层状云降水个例的模拟可看出:位置订正所带来的初始场差异在低层较小,高层较大,且在500 hPa以上较明显;位置订正对模拟的气象要素场的修正有明显的正面效果,对强降水天气系统的反映比较敏感;模拟结果对于雨区分布和强降水中心的位置有较大改进;位置订正后的评分总体优于不加探空和不加漂移的评分,随着模式分辨率的提高,位置订正后对小量级降水的模拟效果欠佳,但对大量级降水的模拟效果较好。     

准噶尔北部蛇绿岩形成时限新证据及其东、西准噶尔蛇绿岩的对比研究

准噶尔北部出露有塔尔巴哈台库吉拜蛇绿岩、洪古勒楞-和布克赛尔蛇绿岩及扎河坝-阿尔曼太蛇绿岩。洪古勒楞蛇绿岩中的堆晶辉长岩样品进行SHRIMP U-Pb定年,结果为472±8.4Ma(MSWD=1.4),限定洪古勒楞-和布克赛尔蛇绿岩形成于早奥陶世。对扎河坝蛇绿岩中斜长花岗岩采用SHRIMP U-Pb方法测定年龄为495.9±5.5Ma(MSWD=2.7),证实扎河坝蛇绿岩形成于晚寒武世-早奥陶世。塔尔巴哈台蛇绿岩、和布克赛尔-洪古勒楞蛇绿岩以及扎河坝-阿尔曼太蛇绿岩均在早奥陶世已经形成,大部分以断层侵位的形式侵位于泥盆纪-石炭系火山-沉积地层中。准噶尔北部东西三段蛇绿岩在形成时代、区域地质以及地球物理特征等方面具有可对比性,认为它们构成一条贯穿东、西准噶尔的蛇绿岩带,这为新疆北部及邻区古生代构造格局的重建以及区域构造的对比连接提供了重要信息。     

西准噶尔与环巴尔喀什斑岩型铜矿床成矿条件及成矿模式对比研究

西准噶尔与环巴尔喀什地处中亚成矿域腹地,发育着许多大型和超大型斑岩铜矿床,构成了中亚成矿域最重要的斑岩铜矿床集中区。二者的成矿动力学背景略有差异,成矿岩浆条件和成矿物源有一定的差异,所形成的斑岩铜矿床有所不同。西准噶尔斑岩铜矿床以新发现的包古图斑岩铜矿床为代表,该矿床位于达拉布特不成熟岛弧南部;含矿岩浆为中钾钙碱性中性岩浆,侵位较深(5～10km);S(δ34S=-2.4‰～0.4‰)和Pb(206Pb/204Pb=17.92～18.89,207Pb/204Pb=15.45～15.62,208Pb/204Pb=37.68～38.36)同位素指示成矿物质来自地幔。含矿中性杂岩体由早期闪长岩体和晚期闪长玢岩岩株组成,含矿岩体发育碱性(黑云母化、硅化、绿泥石化、绿帘石化)和酸性(绢云母化和硅化)蚀变;以浸染状矿化为主,有少量的脉状矿化。环巴尔喀什斑岩铜矿床以科翁腊德和阿克都卡等超大型斑岩铜矿床为代表,这些矿床位于巴尔喀什-伊犁岩浆弧北部,含矿岩浆为中高钾(科翁腊德)和高钾(阿克都卡)钙碱性中酸性岩浆,侵位很浅(科翁腊德)和较浅(阿克都卡);S(δ34S=0.7‰～6.0‰)和Pb同位素分析表明,成矿物质来自地幔和地壳。含矿岩体为连续分异的中酸性杂岩体,包括辉长岩-闪长岩-石英闪长岩-花岗闪长岩-斜长花岗岩等;科翁腊德含矿岩体发育酸性蚀变(高级泥化、绢云母化和硅化)和少量的碱性蚀变(钾长石化、黑云母化和硅化),阿克都卡含矿岩体发育碱性蚀变(钾长石化、黑云母化和硅化)和酸性蚀变(绢云母化和硅化);矿化均为浸染状和脉状矿化。     

A distribution function based bandwidth selection method for kernel quantile estimation

The key problem in nonparametric frequency analysis of flood and droughts is the estimation of the bandwidth parameter which defines the degree of smoothing. Most of the proposed bandwidth estimators have been based on the density function rather than the cumulative distribution function or the quantile that are the primary interest in frequency analysis. We propose a new bandwidth estimator derived from properties of quantile estimators. The estimator builds on work by Altman and Léger (1995). The estimator is compared to the well-known method of least squares cross-validation (LSCV) using synthetic data generated from various parametric distributions used in hydrologic frequency analysis. Simulations suggest that our estimator performs at least as well as, and in many cases better than, the method of LSCV. In particular, the use of the proposed plug-in estimator reduces bias in the estimation as compared to LSCV. When applied to data sets containing observations with identical values, typically the result of rounding or truncation, the LSCV and most other techniques generally underestimates the bandwidth. The proposed technique performs very well in such situations.     

Short-term vertical velocity field in the Apennines (Italy) revealed by geodetic levelling data

We estimate current vertical movements along the Apennines (Italy) through repeatedly measured high precision levelling routes. In order to highlight regional crustal deformation the analysis of a geodetic database, with a minimum benchmark density of 0.7 bm/km (1943–2003 time period), is carried out. We evaluate systematic and random error and their propagation along the levelling routes. Tests on original raw height data have been carried out to define error propagation. The computed relative vertical rates stand significantly above error propagation. A series of traverses along and across the Apennines and a map of relative vertical velocities reveal a geodetic signal characterised by values up to 2.5–3.0 mm/a and by wavelengths up to 100 km.