基于BP神经网络的汛期降水预测模型研究

采用误差反传前向网络（简称BP神经网络）建立汛期（6-8月）降水预测模型，并与采用逐步回归方法建立的模型进行对比试验，结果表明，基于BP神经网络的汛期降水预测模型不仅对历史样本的拟合精度更高，而且其独立样本的预测检验效果也比逐步回归方法更好，是一种具有一定应用前景的汛期降水预测方法。     

中国和外国铁路网发展模式的比较研究

本文从宏观角度出发，开展中国与印度、美国、前苏联、德国铁路网发展模式的比较研究，对五国铁路网发展的背景条件、合理长度、路网组成、若干重要干线的建设、重大技术的推广、铁路建设的分区、资金和进度等问题进行了系统和深入的分析。在综述外国铁路网发展的有益经验和深刻教训的基础上，对我国铁路网发展提出了若干建议，为国家有关领导机构制订中长期铁路网发展规划提供重要参考意见。     

小黄鱼(Larimichthys polyactis)线粒体基因组结构与特征

采用长片段扩增策略,获得鲈形目石首鱼科黄鱼属小黄鱼的线粒体基因组全序列。组装分析结果表明,其长度为16470bp,H链碱基组成呈明显反G偏倚,G含量仅为16%。13个蛋白质基因起始密码子均为ATG。COI基因的终止密码子为AGA,ND1和ND3基因为TAG,COII、ND4和Cytb基因为不完全终止密码子T,其余7个基因都是完整的TAA。在小黄鱼mtDNA中发现2个特殊发夹结构,一个是轻链复制起始区(OL)的发夹环,位于tRNA簇,环区T含量仅为9%,而G含量达45%,这与哺乳动物和爪蟾该区域富含T有所不同。另一个假定发夹结构位于ATP6基因末端,这种二级结构可能与准确转录有关。该mtDNA控制区长度为799bp,5′端含有9个连续TA串联重复和2个5′-ATGTA---TACAT-3′重复,与已报道的鱼类扩展终止相关序列模式恰恰相反;中央控制区仅识别出CSB-E结构;保守序列区含有CSB-1,2,3,其中CSB-2具有高度保守性。对小黄鱼和大黄鱼的mtDNA比较进化研究,根据分子钟假说,估计二者线粒体基因组的进化分歧时间为4.8百万年前。     

Decadal-scale autumn temperature reconstruction back to AD 1580 inferred from the varved sediments of Lake Silvaplana (southeastern Swiss Alps)

A quantitative high-resolution autumn (September-November) temperature reconstruction for the southeastern Swiss Alps back to AD 1580 is presented here. We used the annually resolved biogenic silica (diatoms) flux derived from the accurately dated and annually sampled sediments of Lake Silvaplana (46°27′N, 9°48′E, 1800 m a.s.l.). The biogenic silica flux smoothed by means of a 9-yr running mean was calibrated (r = 0.70, p < 0.01) against local instrumental temperature data (AD 1864-1949). The resulting reconstruction (± 2 standard errors = ± 0.7 °C) indicates that autumns during the late Little Ice Age were generally cooler than they were during the 20th century. During the cold anomaly around AD 1600 and during the Maunder Minimum, however, the reconstructed autumn temperatures did not experience strong negative departures from the 20th-century mean. The warmest autumns prior to 1900 occurred around AD 1770 and 1820 (0.75 °C above the 20th-century mean). Our data agree closely with two other autumn temperature reconstructions for the Alps and for Europe that are based on documentary evidence and are completely unrelated to our data, revealing a very consistent picture over the centuries.     

Landward fining from multiple sources in a sand sheet deposited by the 1929 Grand Banks tsunami, Newfoundland

A sandy deposit from the 1929 Grand Banks tsunami in Newfoundland contains sediment from two distinct sources, one from an inferred gravel shoreline close to the deposit, and one from a sandy dune some 200 m seaward of the deposit. The deposit ranges from 0 to 15 cm thick, and is composed of a bimodal mix of fine and coarse sand. We took approximately 100 core samples of this deposit in an attempt to characterize lateral grain size trends within the sand. Although the coarse fraction does fine with distance inland, the fine fraction does not change size over the study area, and the aggregate grain size changes in no systematic way.

We interpret this deposit to represent the mixture of material picked up at the bar with material picked up at the gravel shoreline. The bar material does not fine in part because it is already fairly well sorted, but also because it is far from its source. The shoreline material, on the other hand, is poorly sorted so that the tsunami took only those grains it was capable of moving, and deposited them near their source.

We estimated the size of the tsunami by determining the flow depth-flow velocity combinations required to advect sand from the bar to the back of the deposit, and by estimating the shear velocity required for motion of the largest grain we found during our survey. This modeling indicates an average flow depth of about 2.5–2.8 m over the area, at a flow velocity of 1.9–2.2 m/s. This estimate compares well with eyewitness accounts of a maximum flow depth of 7 m at the shoreline if our estimate represents an average over the whole study area.     

铜川市月气候预测方法

利用2011年5月1日-31日常规观测资料、Micaps资料及WS重要天气资料,运用天气学原理比较分析了2011年5月8日-10日、19日-21日山西省两次大范围的降水天气过程,给出这两次降水过程的异同点、系统演变特征、物理量诊断分析结果及预报着眼点。     

基于多重网格策略的NLS-3DVar资料融合方法及其在气温数据融合中的应用

将多重网格策略引入NLS-3DVar(Non-linear Least Squares-based on Three-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation,非线性最小二乘三维变分同化)方法,进而应用于2400多个国家级气象观测站逐时气温数据和NCEP再分析气温数据的融合,得到中国区域空间分辨率1°×1°,时间分辨率为6小时的气温融合产品。分别从单重网格(分辨率1°×1°)和双重网格(分辨率由2°×2°到1°×1°)利用2014年1~12月(4、5月除外)的独立检验数据考察NLS-3DVar气温融合产品质量,验证基于多重网格策略的NLS-3DVar方法的优越性。在单重网格下,与广泛应用于气象行业的Cressman插值产品(均方根误差和相关系数的年平均值分别为1.961°C d~(-1)和0.924)相比,NLS-3DVar产品全年始终具有最小的均方根误差和最大的相关系数,年平均值分别为1.915°C d~(-1)和0.929;站点间误差分析进一步表明,NLS-3DVar产品在大多数检验站点精度更高,在新疆、甘肃、云南、陕西等地区尤为突出;加入双重网格策略的NLS-3DVar产品与单重网格的NLS-3DVar产品误差对比显示,均方根误差年平均值分别为1.649°C d~(-1)和1.711°C d~(-1),相关系数年平均值分别为0.970和0.968,二者在均方根误差和相关系数的表现上都极为相似,即双重网格NLS-3DVar气温产品尽管对观测数据采取了稀疏化处理,但依旧维持了原有的产品精度,并且在计算效率上提高了1倍多。而与同样在双重网格下基于多尺度的STMAS(Space–Time Multiscale Analysis System)算法相比,双重网格的NLS-3DVar产品在产品精度上同样占据优势,在计算效率上单位时次耗时与STMAS算法几乎相当。     

Depositional history of a muddy sabkha complex in the Sokoto Basin of Nigeria,West Africa

Sedimentological and stratigraphical analysis of the Sokoto Basin has resulted in recognition of four lithostratigraphic units. They are Unit A—siltstone and fine-grained sandstone; Unit B—shale and marl; Unit C—limestone and calcareous shale; and Unit D—red sandstone. Unit A represents a wadi plain system composed of desert-alluvial beds; Unit B, a mud-rich sabkha system; and Unit C, an inner-shelf carbonate system. A marine transgression from the northwest began in the Maastrichtian and reached its peak in the Palaeocene. After regression in the late Palaeocene, the area was subjected to erosion, followed by fluvial sedimentation of Unit D. Wadi plain beds and mud-rich sabkha facies of Sokoto Basin are similar to alluvial and coastal mud-flat deposits in the northwestern Gulf of California and ephemeral stream and tidal-flat sediments in Gladstone Embayment, Australia.     

基于Terra和NPP卫星的NDVI产品在呼伦贝尔地区植被监测中的对比

为了探索基于多源卫星产品组建长时间序列NDVI并开展生态监测与灾害评估的可能性,利用相关系数、均方根误差、标准差和平均偏差等方法,结合泰勒图,对呼伦贝尔地区2012—2021年基于Terra和NPP卫星逐16 d的NDVI产品进行比较。结果表明：NPP/NDVI的多年均值略高于Terra/NDVI,两者在草原植被类型下的一致性最优,其次为耕地,森林植被的一致性较差。在呼伦贝尔非植被生长季,Terra/NDVI与NPP/NDVI的偏差主要集中在森林,且以Terra/NDVI偏高为主。在植被生长季初期2种NDVI产品的偏差呈现零散、随机分布,中期的偏差相对较小,生长季后期则以Terra/NDVI小于NPP/NDVI的负偏差为主。虽然2种卫星产品的总体偏差不大,但在开展NDVI的距平分析或计算VCI等指数时,较小的偏差会被放大。呼伦贝尔草地在考虑两种NDVI产品偏差纠正的前提下基本可替代使用,而耕地、林地植被的协同应用仍需谨慎。     

九华山区云水资源状况分析

九华山区及周边的地形是以天台至大花台为主脉,四周有低山丘陵合围。复杂地形下各地气候差异明显。应用1980—2010年近30 a观测资料及山区不同高度的自动站数据,运用大气边界层理论及多项式拟合、相关分析等数理统计方法,研究山区与丘陵云水资源的差异。结果表明：地形的动力作用影响了山区局地水汽的输送条件;山区下垫面对降水的增雨作用较为明显,强度越大的降水,其增强作用就越明显,地形对降水的平均贡献率为37.6%。山区与周边降水分布很不均匀,九华山年平均降水量比周边区域多34.1%,山区水资源远大于周边丘陵地区,前者是后者的3.4倍,且一年四季有盈余,但降水量季节分布不均,秋季是最易出现干旱缺水的季节。缓解山区的旱情要以开源蓄水为主,辅以必要的人工增雨。