Analysis of the institutional and social responses to the eruption and the lahars of Mount Pinatubo volcano from 1991 to 1998 (Central Luzon, Philippines)

Mount Pinatubo volcano erupted in June 1991 in the main island of Luzon belonging to the Philippines archipelago. Huge economic losses and population exodus have followed. This major crisis has been relayed with other crises due to rain-fed lahars which have been supplied with eruption deposits. These lahars have occurred every year since 1991 during the rainy season. They will probably last until 2005. After a brief presentation of the Philippine official response system to disasters, this paper draws up a critical analysis of the different kinds of institutional and social responses deployed to manage the different crisis and post-crisis phases of this event. Based on three viewpoints: from population, media and other actors, this analysis attempts to point out the strengths and weaknesses of the official management system, especially by studying the efficiency and the range of the solutions taken. So, it appears that the management of the June 1991 main crisis (eruption) was a success. On the other hand, difficulties have occurred with lahars risk management. Indeed, these lahars have obliged the authorities to protect and relocate thousands of people. In spite of persistent problems, the management system (monitoring/warning/evacuation) of lahar crises improves year after year. Failures appear especially within the rehabilitation program (protection/rehousing). Many direct (lack of means, preparedness, coordination, dialog, etc.) and indirect (politico-administrative, socio-economic, cultural contexts) factors come together to lock the wheels of the institutional response system. They defer the socio-economic start of this vital northern Philippines area. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

青海高原雪灾风险区划及对策建议

利用青海省50个气象台站逐日积雪深度资料、遥感监测积雪深度资料和牲畜死亡率资料,对遥感监测积雪数据进行了验证,证实遥感监测积雪数据能很好的反映青海积雪状况.利用积雪指标分析青海各地致灾强度大小.结果表明:青海三江源地区和祁连山区的部分地区致灾因子危险性最高,柴达木盆地的西部和东部农业区以及环湖的部分地区致灾因子危险性较低.通过分析积雪指标和牲畜死亡率的相关关系,确定了不同雪灾等级临界气象指标,对青海地区进行了雪灾风险区划.区划结果为:轻灾主要发生在柴达木盆地、东部农业区的大部和环湖的部分地区,这些地区发生轻灾的频率大都在50%以上;中灾和重灾在青海发生频率均不高,都在20%以下;三江源的大部尤其是囊谦、玉树和称多一带是特大雪灾的高发区,发生频率均在50%以上.     

2021年、2022年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评

基于2021年、2022年中国5.0级及以上地震目录,结合应急管理部、有关省(自治区、直辖市)地震局的地震灾害评估报告和相关资料,对中国大陆地震灾害情况、主要地震灾害事件及其特点进行了总结和分析。此外,按省份总结了各省地震灾害事件及地震灾害特点。其中,云南省中强震多、强震少,震区房屋抗震能力较高,人员伤亡较小; 四川省中强震少、强震多,次生灾害较为发育,造成严重人员伤亡; 青海省虽然震级高、破坏性强、致灾范围广,但震区地广人稀,房屋抗震设防等级较高,人员伤亡少。最后,结合历史震害统计数据,分析对比近2年中国大陆地震灾害致灾特点。     

基于信息量模型的玉树地震次生地质灾害危险性评价

2010-04-14发生在青海省玉树的Ms7.1级地震引发了大量的地质灾害.基于GIS技术和信息量模型方法,以坡度、坡向、高程、坡形、地貌类型、断层距和地层岩性为评价因子,通过空间分析计算各因子的信息量,分析地质灾害在各因子中的空间分布特征,对各评价因子图层进行空间建模,将获取的信息量图划分为高度、中度、轻度三级危险区,通过遥感解译研究区实际滑坡分布,与危险性分布图叠加表明:本次研究得出的危险等级与实际的滑坡发生情况相吻合,为灾区重建提供参考依据.     

The flood of the Nenjiang river and the Songhua river in 1998 and the comprehensive management of the river basins

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西宁盆地泥石流类型及其防治意见

概略地叙述了西宁地区的泥石流形成条件和形成机理,并将西宁地区泥石流划分为稀性泥石流类及泥石质泥石流种类。在此基础上提出防治泥石流灾害的意见。     

面向中国洪涝灾害应急监测的无人机空港布局

当前洪涝灾害对社会的经济发展和人民生命财产安全构成严重威胁。无人机机动、灵活,安全性高,可迅捷甚至实时获取灾区影像,对灾情的快速评估和应急救援决策意义重大。遥感无人机在洪涝灾害救援中能够发挥的重要作用已得到广泛共识,但是由于灾害的突发性,缺乏就近部署的资源制约了无人机遥感观测和救援作用的发挥。针对突发灾害,在区域和全国范围内建立起一定的无人机遥感应急体系成为国家面向未来正在考虑的选项。基于此,本研究提出了基于中国科学院的野外台站构建全国无人机遥感观测网的设想。本研究以中国防范洪涝灾害等级分布数据、行政区划数据、中国科学院野外台站分布数据和当前无人机性能数据库为数据源;以行政区划离散并提取的中心点作为需求点,台站作为设施点,不同洪涝等级区域内需要无人机进行应急观测的重要程度作为权重,利用最大覆盖选址模型进行空港选址布局;利用成本-效益曲线确定台站的最佳数量,最终从268个台站中选取出81个作为支撑全国洪涝灾害无人机遥感观测网络的无人机空港。无人机空港布局结果在理论上能够实现对中国绝大数突发洪涝灾害在2 h内初步完成洪涝观测,这对于构建中国空天地一体化的洪涝灾害监测体系具有重要意义。同时,本研究中的方法和成果对于进一步构建行业和综合性的全国无人机遥感观测网也具有一定借鉴和参照意义。     

Progress and Prospect of Statistics and Assessment of Large-scale Natural Disaster Damage and Losses

In June 2014, the "Statistics System for the Damage and Loss of Large-scale Natural Disasters" (SSDLLND) was issued by the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Office of National Disaster Reduction Committee, which marked that the statistics and assessment of China's catastrophic natural disaster damage and losses formally entered a new stage of institutionalization. On the basis of analyzing the five major international disaster damage and loss assessment systems, including HAZUS-MH, ECLAC, DaLA, EMA-DLA and PDNA, the differences between the “SSDLLND” of China and five major international systems were compared from the statistics and assessment contents and indicators. Combined with the statistics and assessment practices of China’s large-scale disaster damage and losses and the characteristics of international systems in recent years, the future development of the SSDLLND were proposed in three aspects: Enriching and improving the framework of damage and loss statistics content, stepwise improvement of disaster impact assessment methods (such as the ecological capital loss assessment, tourism industry loss assessment due to the disasters, etc.), and improving indicators and parameters of loss statistics. The study has an important practical significance for improving the statistics and assessment system of the damage and loss of major natural disasters and better serving the post-disaster recovery and reconstruction decision-making.     

地质灾害应急支撑体系建设基本问题分析

以重大地质灾害应急实践为基础,采用文献研究、描述性研究和统计分析法,本文探讨了地质灾害应急支撑体系建设基本问题。认为:地质灾害应急具有"应对面广、预警困难、挽救率低、成因判定难"等特点;单个事件应急响应行动,一般通过三大步七个环节完成四项处置内容。单项处置行动通常有5个技术流程;地质灾害支撑体系具有"弱基础、松耦合、强内聚"结构,能力建设是重点。地质灾害过程机理、应急防治技术、应急预案动态优化和支撑系统是支撑体系建设中的四个关键科学技术问题。     

青海玉树断裂带地震落石的地震地质意义

2010年青海玉树Ms 7.1级大地震引发了一系列次生地质灾害,其中地震落石是除地震滑坡外沿断裂带及其邻侧最常见的现象。对玉树震区落石的调查发现,该区多处存在非常典型的多期地震落石分布现象,指示该区地震落石的发育与其他古地震现象类似,具有多期性和一定的原地复发性。实地调查表明,该区地震落石分布的主要特征为:多集中发育在活动断裂带附近的陡峭基岩斜坡下方,分布零散,且滚动较远,并常与古地震滑坡相伴生。初步获得的8个地震落石钙膜U系测年结果分布在距今6030±300a BP、4720±210a BP、3530±490~3560±280a BP、2010±160a BP、1090±70a BP、760±20a BP和230±20a BP年龄段,与该区古地震探槽和滑坡反映的地震事件比较吻合,进一步揭示玉树断裂带附近在全新世中晚期发生过多期可导致地表产生地震落石的事件。同时也说明,地震落石及其钙膜测年是特别值得进一步探索的潜在古地震研究方法或途径。