A new estimate of global methane flux from onshore and shallow submarine mud volcanoes to the atmosphere

A new estimate of global methane emission into the atmosphere from mud volcanoes (MVs) on land and shallow seafloor is presented. The estimate, considered a lower limit, is based on 1) new direct measurements of flux, including both venting of methane and diffuse microseepage around craters and vents, and 2) a classification of MV sizes in terms of area (km²) based on a compilation of data from 120 MVs. The methane flux to the atmosphere is conservatively estimated between 6 and 9 Mt y^–1. This emission from MVs is 3–6% of the natural methane sources and is comparable with ocean and hydrate sources, officially considered in the atmospheric methane budget. The total geologic source, including MVs, seepage from seafloor, microseepage in hydrocarbon-prone areas and geothermal sources, would amount to 35–45 Mt y^–1. The authors believe it is time to add this parameter in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change official tables of atmospheric methane sources.GEM     

Climate change perceptions and their individual-level determinants: A cross-European analysis

There is now an extensive literature on the question of how individual-level factors affect climate change perceptions, showing that socio-political variables, notably values, worldviews and political orientation, are key factors alongside demographic variables. Yet little is known about cross-national differences in these effects, as most studies have been conducted in a single or small number of countries and cross-study comparisons are difficult due to different conceptualisations of key climate change dimensions. Using data from the European Social Survey Round 8 (n = 44,387), we examine how key socio-political and demographic factors are associated with climate change perception across 22 European countries and Israel. We show that human values and political orientation are important predictors of climate change beliefs and concern, as are the demographics of gender, age, and education. Certain associations with climate change perceptions, such as the ones for the self-transcendence versus self-enhancement value dimension, political orientation, and education, are more consistent across countries than for gender and age. However, even if the direction of the associations are to a large extent consistent, the sizes of the effects are not. We demonstrate that the sizes of the effects are generally smaller in Central and Eastern European countries, and that some demographic effects are larger in Northern European as compared to Western European countries. This suggests that findings from one country do not always generalize to other national contexts.     

Towards a moral socio-environmental economy: A reconsideration of values

In this intervention article I contribute to discussions of moral economy by arguing that scholars should reconsider the nature of value. Neoliberalism considers only exchange value. As a consequence neoliberal policies try to manage problems such as climate change with economic systems and instruments that are mis-calibrated to the material realities they are meant to represent. Value has spatial and temporal characteristics. Recognizing the spatial and temporal dynamics of value leads to new means of resource valuation, such as extending the time-frame of instruments and changing the nature of privatization. In conclusion, I argue for the need for new theories of use value.     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

Differential modulation of eastern oyster (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Crassostrea virginica</Emphasis>) disease parasites by the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation

The eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) is affected by two protozoan parasites, Perkinsus marinus which causes Dermo disease and Haplosporidium nelsoni which causes MSX (Multinucleated Sphere Unknown) disease. Both diseases are largely controlled by water temperature and salinity and thus are potentially sensitive to climate variations resulting from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences climate along the Gulf of Mexico coast, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which influences climate along the Atlantic coast of the United States. In this study, a 10-year time series of temperature and salinity and P. marinus infection intensity for a site in Louisiana on the Gulf of Mexico coast and a 52-year time series of air temperature and freshwater inflow and oyster mortality from Delaware Bay on the Atlantic coast of the United States were analyzed to determine patterns in disease and disease-induced mortality in C. virginica populations that resulted from ENSO and NAO climate variations. Wavelet analysis was used to decompose the environmental, disease infection intensity and oyster mortality time series into a time–frequency space to determine the dominant modes of variability and the time variability of the modes. For the Louisiana site, salinity and Dermo disease infection intensity are correlated at a periodicity of 4 years, which corresponds to ENSO. The influence of ENSO on Dermo disease along the Gulf of Mexico is through its effect on salinity, with high salinity, which occurs during the La Niña phase of ENSO at this location, favoring parasite proliferation. For the Delaware Bay site, the primary correlation was between temperature and oyster mortality, with a periodicity of 8 years, which corresponds to the NAO. Warmer temperatures, which occur during the positive phase of the NAO, favor the parasites causing increased oyster mortality. Thus, disease prevalence and intensity in C. virginica populations along the Gulf of Mexico coast is primarily regulated by salinity, whereas temperature regulates the disease process along the United States east coast. These results show that the response of an organism to climate variability in a region is not indicative of the response that will occur over the entire range of a particular species. This has important implications for management of marine resources, especially those that are commercially harvested.     

The Great Barrier Reef: a 700 000 year diagenetic history

A deep borehole through Ribbon Reef 5 in the Great Barrier Reef off north‐eastern Australia has identified a variety of cements, including epitaxial, radial prismatic and spherular aragonite, together with blocky, prismatic and fibrous calcite. These cements are discontinuously arranged within the sequence that consists predominantly of grainstones but locally includes clotted muddy and filamentous textures that may be of microbial origin. Calcite cements vary in morphology with groups of crystals that include acute scalenohedral, rhombohedral and flattened concordant terminations; these show varying densities of inclusions that locally define growth zones and in some terminations divide in the manner of ‘split crystals’ to form fibrous fringes. Morphological changes in calcite are inferred to reflect changes in water chemistry and crystal growth rates at the time of growth, allied to their relationship to the palaeo‐water table, and linked in turn to changes in sea‐level. Neomorphism and dissolution are widespread and variations in the severity of both imply response to the degree of undersaturation of pore waters that at times were probably balanced within very narrow limits. A total of 10 depositional units are identified. Those units at the base of the borehole reflect deposition and diagenesis within a marine environment. The influence of meteoric waters, indicated by stable isotopes, is first apparent at the top of Unit 1 and in Unit 2 (184 to 155 m below sea floor). Petrographic evidence of vadose conditions appears at the tops of Unit 3 (131 to 99 m below sea floor). Units 4 to 8, all deposited under marine conditions, provide isotopic evidence of meteoric or mixing‐zone waters and petrographic indicators of vadose conditions, typically at the top of the units. Evidence indicates that in Unit 5 the water table was mobile and Units 6a, 6b, 7 and 8, all characterized by ultraviolet fluorescent cements, are capped by sub‐aerial erosion surfaces. Unit 9 (the Holocene) reflects the recent re‐establishment of marine conditions. The extent of alteration of the entire sequence reflects the substantial and pervasive influence of meteoric waters. This effect is interpreted as a result of a greater rainfall and river flow from the mainland during early and late stages of interstadial periods. The study reflects progress in the ability to recognize the diagenetic signal generated by sea‐level change. However, whereas the isotopic results reflect the changing relationships between vadose and phreatic zones in groundwater systems beneath successive emergent surfaces, their correspondence with petrographic features is expressed only weakly and commonly lacks the systematic sequential overprinting implied by the distribution of cathodoluminescent zones of cements in many ancient limestones.     

Isotopic tracers of paleohydrologic change in large lakes of the Bolivian Altiplano

We have developed an ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, ²³⁴U/²³⁸U, and δ¹⁸O data set from carbonates associated with late Quaternary paleolake cycles on the southern Bolivian Altiplano as a tool for tracking and understanding the causes of lake-level fluctuations. Distinctive groupings of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios are observed. Ratios are highest for the Ouki lake cycle (120-95 ka) at 0.70932, lowest for Coipasa lake cycle (12.8-11.4 ka) at 0.70853, and intermediate at 0.70881 to 0.70884 for the Salinas (95-80 ka), Inca Huasi (~ 45 ka), Sajsi (24-20.5 ka), and Tauca (18.1-14.1 ka) lake cycles. These Sr ratios reflect variable contributions from the eastern and western Cordilleras. The Laca hydrologic divide exerts a primary influence on modern and paleolake ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios; waters show higher ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios north of this divide. Most lake cycles were sustained by slightly more rainfall north of this divide but with minimal input from Lake Titicaca. The Coipasa lake cycle appears to have been sustained mainly by rainfall south of this divide. In contrast, the Ouki lake cycle was an expansive lake, deepest in the northern (Poópo) basin, and spilling southward. These results indicate that regional variability in central Andean wet events can be reconstructed using geochemical patterns from this lake system.     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.