Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium‐sized watershed of Portugal

The separated and combined effects of land‐cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land‐cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias‐corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (?7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between ?15% and ?38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land‐cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Suitability evaluation of rural residential areas under the threat of geological disasters:A case study in Yinchanggou watershed of Pengzhou City

At present, the research on the layout of rural residential areas in the mountainous environment under the threat of earthquake disasters and frequent geological disasters is still rare. Taking Yinchanggou watershed in Longmenshan Town of Pengzhou City as an example, based on the summary of the geological hazard development characteristics in this area, the authors carried out the hazard risk zoning through 8 indexes. Then the geological hazard risk zoning was used as the primary factor to evaluate the suitability of rural residential areas. Besides, combined with the topographical conditions, socio-economic situation and ecological environment, a suitable evaluation index system for rural residential land under the threat of geological disasters was constructed, with the restrictive conditions of extremely high-risk areas, single geological hazards, slopes ≥25° and basic farmland protection areas. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the suitability of residential land in Yinchanggou watershed of Pengzhou City. The results show that high suitability areas account for 4.2% of the total area of the study area, moderate suitability areas 11.4%, low suitability areas 10.5%, and unsuitable areas 73.8%. The “suitable” areas for rural residential land are mainly distributed along the highway, and some are multiple “blocky” concentrated distribution areas. The terrain is flat and the traffic condition is convenient, which can provide some guidance for the selection of new rural residential locations.     

滇池流域石漠化特征分析

位于云南省会昆明盆地内的滇池流域是滇中岩溶和石漠化较为发育的地区,石漠化总面积225.56 km2,占流域总面积的7.71%,占岩溶总面积32.69%。石漠化主要分布在望海山、大板桥—呈贡、黑林铺、海口、梁王山、上蒜片区,其中又以北东部的大板桥片区石漠化最为严重。石漠化已造成流域内水土流失加剧、可耕地面积减少、土壤涵养水源能力降低及生态环境恶化等危害。通过地面调查和ETM遥感解译,查清了流域内石漠化的发育分布与碳酸盐岩的岩性及其组合、岩溶作用、地形地貌、气象等自然因素、人为因素和工业污染关系密切。针对石漠化的形成原因,提出了生态修复、农田基本建设、水资源开发利用、农村能源建设、小集镇建设、土地合理利用等治理措施。     

水文模型参数区域化研究进展

参数区域化方法是解决资料缺乏地区水文模拟和预报的有效手段,主要包括回归法、空间邻近法和属性相似法三类方法,可将有资料流域的水文模型参数移用到资料缺乏流域。首先回顾了区域化方法的基本原理和应用方法,并分析了三类主要区域化方法的适用性。从流域特征因子、水文模型及参数、不确定性探讨三个方面综述了区域化方法的研究进展。分析发现,当前区域化方法缺乏完善的理论基础,流域特征因子选择存在主观性,水文模型及参数的适用性方面研究不足。最后展望了未来的研究重点：（1）多维度适用性比较;（2）水文过程和参数的空间分布规律;（3）参数的尺度问题;（4）参数区域化的不确定性问题。     

Holistic approach of GIS based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and WetSpass models to evaluate groundwater potential in Gelana watershed of Ethiopia

Appropriate quantification and identification of the groundwater distribution in a hydrological basin may provide necessary information for effective management, planning and development of groundwater resources. Groundwater potential assessment and delineation in a highly heterogeneous environment with limited Spatiotemporal data derived from Gelana watershed of Abaya Chamo lake basin is performed, using integrated multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), water and energy transfer between soil and plant and atmosphere under quasi-steady state (WetSpass) models. The outputs of the WetSpass model reveal a favorable structure of water balance in the basin studied, mainly using surface runoff. The simulated total flow and groundwater recharge are validated using river measurements and estimated baseflow at two gauging stations located in the study area, which yields a good agreement. The WetSpass model effectively integrates a water balance assessment in a geographical information system (GIS) environment. The WetSpass model is shown to be computationally reputable for such a remote complex setting as the African rift, with a correlation coefficient of 0.99 and 0.99 for total flow and baseflow at a significant level of p-value<0.05, respectively. The simulated annual water budget reveals that 77.22% of annual precipitation loses through evapotranspiration, of which 16.54% is lost via surface runoff while 6.24% is recharged to the groundwater. The calibrated groundwater recharge from the WetSpass model is then considered when determining the controlling factors of groundwater occurrence and formation, together with other multi-thematic layers such as lithology, geomorphology, lineament density and drainage density. The selected five thematic layers through MCDA are incorporated by employing the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method to identify the relative dominance in groundwater potential zoning. The weighted factors in the AHP are procedurally aggregated, based on weighted linear combinations to provide the groundwater potential index. Based on the potential indexes, the area then is demarcated into low, moderate, and high groundwater potential zones (GWPZ). The identified GWPZs are finally examined using the existing groundwater inventory data (static water level and springs) in the region. About 70.7% of groundwater inventory points are coinciding with the delineated GWPZs. The weighting comparison shows that lithology, geomorphology, and groundwater recharge appear to be the dominant factors influence on the resources potential. The assessment of groundwater potential index values identify 45.88% as high, 39.38% moderate, and 14.73% as low groundwater potential zones. WetSpass model analysis is more preferable in the area like Gelana watershed when the topography is rugged, inaccessible and having limited gauging stations.     

小流域水分行为、生态效应及其优化调控研究方面的若干问题

把小流域水文生态研究,分解为小流域水分行为、生态效应及其优化调控研究3个方面。在分析国内外研究现状与问题的基础上,指出了其需要系统加以探讨的若干内容,认为由此可构建流域水文生态学的基本框架,进而发展流域水文生态学。     

流域水文模型研究进展

本文介绍了流域水文模型的分类,论述了流域水文模型基础理论——产汇流理论的发展及其自身的研究进展,探讨了流域水文模型的研究趋势和发展困境,并对未来做出了展望,以期能推进流域水文模型的研究。     

Use of a watershed hydrologic model to estimate interbasin groundwater flow in a Costa Rican rainforest

The watershed hydrologic model TOPMODEL was used to estimate interbasin groundwater flow (IGF) into a small lowland rainforest watershed in Costa Rica. IGF is a common hydrological process but often difficult to quantify. Four‐year simulations (2006–2009) using three different model approaches gave estimates of IGF that were very similar to each other (10.1, 10.2, and 9.8 m/year) and to an earlier estimate (10.0 m/year) based on 1998–2002 data from a budget study that did not use a hydrologic simulation model, providing confidence in the new estimates and suggesting each of the three model approaches is viable. Results show no significant temporal variation in IGF during 2006–2009 (or between this period and the earlier study from 1998–2002). Simulations of the 16 consecutive 3‐month periods in 2006–2009 gave 16 values of IGF rate with a mean (10.1 m/year, standard deviation = 0.6 m/year) very similar to the estimates above from the 4‐year simulations. This suggests the modified version of TOPMODEL can be used to model stream discharge and estimate IGF for sub‐annual time periods during which change in water storage is not necessarily equal to zero. Thus, simple watershed models may be used to estimate IGF based on even relatively short calibration periods, making such models useful tools in the study of this widespread hydrological process that affects water and chemical fluxes and budgets but is often difficult and costly to quantify. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于RegCM3和DLBRM的耦合系统CRCHMS的构建及其在黑河上游的应用

以高寒山区—黑河流域上游为研究区,确定区域气候模式RegCM3的模拟方案,率定分布式水文模型（DLBRM）,并开发了RegCM3和DLBRM模型接口,从而构建了区域气候水文耦合模拟系统CRCHMS。结果表明,以RegCM3作为气象驱动数据的CRCHMS系统模拟性能优于以观测站点作为气象驱动数据的DLBRM模型,对莺落峡径流量的模拟值与实测值的相关系数在校准期和验证期分别为0.47和0.62,均方根误差分别为0.045和0.044 cm/d,相对误差分别为-0.4%和6%,纳什系数在率定期和验证期分别为0.22和0.36。     

Attributes and uncertainty of dissolved zinc data from a mined catchment

This study evaluated the attributes and uncertainty of non‐point source pollution data derived from synoptic surveys in a catchment affected by inactive metal mines in order to help to identify and select appropriate methods for data analysis/reporting and information use. Dissolved zinc data from the Upper Animas River Basin, Colorado, USA, were the focus of the study. Zinc was evaluated because concentrations were highest relative to national water quality criteria for brown trout, and zinc had the greatest frequency of criteria exceedances compared with other metals. Data attributes evaluated included measurement and model error, sample size, non‐normality, seasonality and uncertainty. The average measurement errors for discharges, concentrations and loadings were 0·15, 0·1 and 0·18, respectively. The 90 and 95% coefficients of confidence intervals for mean concentrations based on a sample size of four were 0·48 and 0·65, respectively, and ranged between 0·15 and 0·23 for sample sizes greater than 40. Aggregation of data from multiple stations decreased the confidence intervals significantly, but additional aggregation of all data increased them as a result of increasing spatial variability. Unit area loading data were approximately log‐normal. Concentration data were right‐skewed but not log‐normal. Differences in median concentrations were appreciable between snowmelt and both storm flow and baseflow, but not between storm flow and baseflow. Differences in unit area loadings between all flow events were large. It was determined that the average concentration and unit area loading values should be estimated for each flow event because of significant seasonality. Time weighted values generally should be computed if annual information is required. The confidence in average concentrations and unit area loadings is dependent on the computation method used. Both concentrations and loadings can be significantly underestimated on an annual basis when using data from synoptic surveys if the first flush of contaminants during the initial snowmelt runoff period is not sampled. The ambient standard for dissolved zinc for all events was estimated as 1600 μg l⁻¹ using the 85th percentile of observed concentration data, with a 90% confidence interval width of 200 μg l⁻¹. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.