基于洪峰模数的山洪灾害雨量预警指标研究

山洪灾害预警是防御山洪的重要非工程措施,雨量预警指标是山洪灾害预警的关键。目前的雨量预警指标计算方法对水文气象资料条件以及模型建模率定都有很高的要求,并不适用于基层防汛人员。因此,本文基于全国山洪灾害调查评价成果数据,提出了一种运用洪峰模数计算雨量预警指标的简便、易用的方法。该方法以小流域洪水计算推理公式为基础,将公式中流量与流域面积的比值用洪峰模数表示,得到基于洪峰模数的临界雨量估算公式,并考虑流域土壤含水量等因素,分析临界雨量变化阈值,最终得到雨量预警指标。本文以云南省绥江县双河小流域为例,计算结果显示不同时段（1 h、3 h、6 h）净雨量和预警时段呈线性关系。降雨损失计算中洼地蓄水和植被截留在不同时段相同,土壤下渗在不同的时段不相同。在此基础上,计算不同土壤含水量条件下,不同时段的雨量预警指标。最后,对临界流量、降雨损失和预警指标进行了合理性分析,结果显示预警指标和调查评价结果及实测降雨都比较接近,计算的预警指标合理。本研究为基层山洪灾害预警提供了一种快速、便捷的预警指标计算方法,为预警指标计算提供技术支持。     

基于RS和GIS的松花江流域植被覆盖动态变化研究

利用遥感和地理信息系统技术对1989,1995年的Landsat TM数据和2002年Landsat ETM＋三期遥感数据进行处理,反演和计算松花江流域的归一化植被指数（NDVI）,在此基础上,获取研究区域植被覆盖度。在ArcGIS9.2软件空间分析模块的支持下,对研究区域三期植被覆盖影像进行叠加分析,以流域尺度和栅格尺度分析植被覆盖变化的时间和空间特性,获取研究区域植被覆盖度空间格局分布特征,为该区域植被覆盖度的自动化监测提供很好的技术支持。     

Sensitivity of streamflow from a Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate

Global climate change will likely increase temperature and variation in precipitation in the Himalayas, modifying both supply of and demand for water. This study assesses combined impacts of land‐cover and climate changes on hydrological processes and a rainfall‐to‐streamflow buffer indicator of watershed function using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Kejie watershed in the eastern Himalayas. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) was used for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (A2 and B2), for 2010–2099. Four land‐cover change scenarios increase forest, grassland, crops, or urban land use, respectively, reducing degraded land. The SWAT model predicted that downstream water resources will decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. Afforestation and expansion in cropland will probably increase actual evapotranspiration (ET) and reduce annual streamflow but will also, through increased infiltration, reduce the overland flow component of streamflow and increase groundwater release. An expansion in grassland will decrease actual ET, increase annual streamflow and groundwater release, while decreasing overland flow. Urbanization will result in increases in streamflow and overland flow and reductions in groundwater release and actual ET. Land‐cover change dominated over effects on streamflow of climate change in the short and middle terms. The predicted changes in buffer indicator for land‐use plus climate‐change scenarios reach up to 50% of the current (and future) range of inter‐annual variability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of soil and water conservation measures on catchment hydrological response—a case in north Ethiopia

Impact studies of catchment management in the developing world rarely include detailed hydrological components. Here, changes in the hydrological response of a 200‐ha catchment in north Ethiopia are investigated. The management included various soil and water conservation measures such as the construction of dry masonry stone bunds and check dams, the abandonment of post‐harvest grazing, and the establishment of woody vegetation. Measurements at the catchment outlet indicated a runoff depth of 5 mm or a runoff coefficient (RC) of 1·6% in the rainy season of 2006. Combined with runoff measurements at plot scale, this allowed calculating the runoff curve number (CN) for various land uses and land management techniques. The pre‐implementation runoff depth was then predicted using the CN values and a ponding adjustment factor, representing the abstraction of runoff induced by the 242 check dams in gullies. Using the 2006 rainfall depths, the runoff depth for the 2000 land management situation was predicted to be 26·5 mm (RC = 8%), in line with current RCs of nearby catchments. Monitoring of the ground water level indicated a rise after catchment management. The yearly rise in water table after the onset of the rains (ΔT) relative to the water surplus (WS) over the same period increased between 2002–2003 (ΔT/WS = 3·4) and 2006 (ΔT/WS >11·1). Emerging wells and irrigation are other indicators for improved water supply in the managed catchment. Cropped fields in the gullies indicate that farmers are less frightened for the destructive effects of flash floods. Due to increased soil water content, the crop growing period is prolonged. It can be concluded that this catchment management has resulted in a higher infiltration rate and a reduction of direct runoff volume by 81% which has had a positive influence on the catchment water balance. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A dual-porosity model for nitrogen leaching from a watershed/Un modèle à double porosité pour le lessivage de l’azote d’un bassin versant

Abstract

Abstract The MASONW (MACRO + SOILN + Watershed) model describing nitrogen leaching in watersheds was developed and tested. The model is based on the MACRO and SOILN models. The dual-porosity model MACRO simulates water flow on the field scale. The SOILN model describes turnover and leaching of nitrogen. Two main features of a watershed have been added into these two models: (a) the existence of a river system, and (b) variable thickness of the aeration zone within a watershed. Good agreement between the output of the MASONW model and observed data for water discharge and nitrate concentrations were achieved in the Odense watershed (496 km²) in Denmark.     

Dynamic evolution of nutrient discharge under stormflow and baseflow conditions in a coastal agricultural watershed in Ishigaki Island,Okinawa, Japan

Excessive terrestrial nutrient loadings adversely impact coral reefs by primarily enhancing growth of macroalgae, potentially leading to a phase‐shift phenomenon. Hydrological processes and other spatial and temporal factors affecting nutrient discharge must be examined to be able to formulate effective measures for reducing nutrient export to adjacent reefs. During storm events and baseflow periods, water samples were obtained from the tropical Todoroki River, which drains an intensively agricultural watershed into Shiraho coral reef. In situ nutrient analyzers were deployed for 6 months to hourly measure dissolved nutrient (NO₃⁻‐N and PO₄³⁻‐P) concentrations. Total phosphorus (TP) and suspended solid concentration (TSS) were increased by higher rainfall intensity (r = 0·94, p < 0·01) and river discharge Q (r = 0·88, p < 0·01). In contrast, NO₃⁻‐N concentration tends to decrease drastically (e.g. from 3 to 1 mg l⁻¹) during flood events. When base flow starts to dominate afterwards, NO₃⁻‐N manifested an increasing trend, but decreases when baseflow discharge becomes low. This counter‐clockwise hysteresis for NO₃⁻‐N highlights the significant influence of groundwater discharge. N delivery can therefore be considered a persistent process compared to sediment and P discharge, which are highly episodic in nature. Based on GIS analysis, nutrient concentration along the Todoroki River was largely affected by the percentage of sugarcane/bare areas and bedrock type. The spatial distribution of N concentration in the river reflects the considerable influence of subsurface geology—higher N levels in limestone‐dominated areas. P concentrations were directly related to the total length of artificial drainage, which enhances sediment transport. The use of high‐resolution monitoring data coupled with GIS‐based spatial analysis therefore enabled the clarification of control factors and the difference in the spatio‐temporal discharge characteristics between N and P. Thus, although erosion‐reduction schemes would reduce P discharge, other approaches (e.g. minimize fertilizer) are needed to reduce N discharge. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding and modeling basin hydrology: interpreting the hydrogeological signature

Basin landscapes possess an identifiable spatial structure, fashioned by climate, geology and land use, that affects their hydrologic response. This structure defines a basin's hydrogeological signature and corresponding patterns of runoff and stream chemistry. Interpreting this signature expresses a fundamental understanding of basin hydrology in terms of the dominant hydrologic components: surface, interflow and groundwater runoff. Using spatial analysis techniques, spatially distributed watershed characteristics and measurements of rainfall and runoff, we present an approach for modelling basin hydrology that integrates hydrogeological interpretation and hydrologic response unit concepts, applicable to both new and existing rainfall‐runoff models. The benefits of our modelling approach are a clearly defined distribution of dominant runoff form and behaviour, which is useful for interpreting functions of runoff in the recruitment and transport of sediment and other contaminants, and limited over‐parameterization. Our methods are illustrated in a case study focused on four watersheds (24 to 50 km²) draining the southern coast of California for the period October 1988 though to September 2002. Based on our hydrogeological interpretation, we present a new rainfall‐runoff model developed to simulate both surface and subsurface runoff, where surface runoff is from either urban or rural surfaces and subsurface runoff is either interflow from steep shallow soils or groundwater from bedrock and coarse‐textured fan deposits. Our assertions and model results are supported using streamflow data from seven US Geological Survey stream gauges and measured stream silica concentrations from two Santa Barbara Channel–Long Term Ecological Research Project sampling sites. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“分水岭迁移与河流袭夺”客观存在

分水岭迁移的结果必然会引起河流的袭夺，这是水系演变中的客观规律。分水岭之所以会发生迁移，关键在于分水岭两侧分别存在着高位河流与低位河流，这就使得分水岭两侧的侵蚀能量有差异。分水岭的被切穿主要是由于低位河流溯源侵蚀较强，迫使分水岭向高位河流的一例移动，并最终袭夺高位河流。     

基于栅格数据的流域降雨径流模型

本文在研究降雨时空分布不均匀与下垫面自然地理参数空间分布不均匀，对降雨径流过程影响的基础上，提出了一种在地理信息系统支持下的动态分布式降雨径流流域模型，实现了基于栅格的坡面产汇流与河道汇流的数值模拟，能够获得流域上任意模拟时刻任意栅格的径流量。模型视栅格为水文一致性单元，水文参数在栅格内一致，在相邻栅格间变化，采用Ｈｏｌｔａｎ模型计算下渗率，水量平衡方程和线性水库的马斯京根法进行栅格产汇流演算，模