南海北部及巴士海峡附近的水团分析

为解释黑潮水进入南海的方式 ,通过对 2 0 0 2年 5月 2 9日～ 6月 6日在南海及巴士海峡附近太平洋海域观测所得的资料进行水团分析 ,以四边形水团定量分析方法得到各水团在海区内的分布状况 ,同时分析了温度、盐度、密度和溶解氧的分布 ,并对在相同深度层次上的南海水和黑潮水性质进行了比较。观测海域的水团分为表层水团 (SW ) ,次表层水团 (SSW ) ,中层水团 (IW )和深层水团 (DW ) ,分别处于 0～ 5 0m ,5 0～ 3 0 0m ,40 0～ 10 0 0m ,10 0 0m以深。黑潮水进入南海 ,但是势力较弱 ,未能越过 119.5°E深入南海。     

渤海海峡跨海通道建设对城市经济联系的影响分析

渤海海峡跨海通道建设将极大改变环渤海乃至整个东部沿海的交通格局,势必对其目标城市大连、烟台带来直接的经济影响,同时也会对辽东半岛、山东半岛乃至东北、华北和华东不同尺度地区的经济联系产生深远影响。文章选取山东省17个和辽宁省14个地级市的地区的生产总值、城市人口以及城市间的最短时间距离等指标,测度渤海海峡跨海通道建成前后,对山东、辽宁两省区域城市经济联系的影响。研究表明:渤海海峡跨海通道建成后,对大连、烟台间的经济联系强度有显著提高,各城市经济联系度的平均增幅明显不同;同时,受距离衰减规律的影响,两省的城市分别以大连、烟台为中心,根据距离远近及城市自身发展程度分为4个层次,经济联系强度由内向外逐层次减弱;从整体上看,渤海通道的建设对带动两省城市之间的经济联系度都有大幅度提升。     

A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels

Sea-level return periods are estimated at 18 sites around the English Channel using: (i) the annual maxima method; (ii) the r-largest method; (iii) the joint probability method; and (iv) the revised joint probability method. Tests are undertaken to determine how sensitive these four methods are to three factors which may significantly influence the results; (a) the treatment of the long-term trends in extreme sea level; (b) the relative magnitudes of the tidal and non-tidal components of sea level; and (c) the frequency, length and completeness of the available data. Results show that unless sea-level records with lengths of at least 50 years are used, the way in which the long-term trends is handled in the different methods can lead to significant differences in the estimated return levels. The direct methods (i.e. methods i and ii) underestimate the long (> 20 years) period return levels when the astronomical tidal variations of sea level (relative to a mean of zero) are about twice that of the non-tidal variations. The performance of each of the four methods is assessed using prediction errors (the difference between the return periods of the observed maximum level at each site and the corresponding data range). Finally, return periods, estimated using the four methods, are compared with estimates from the spatial revised joint probability method along the UK south coast and are found to be significantly larger at most sites along this coast, due to the comparatively short records originally used to calibrate the model in this area. The revised joint probability method is found to have the lowest prediction errors at most sites analysed and this method is recommended for application wherever possible. However, no method can compensate for poor data.     

Interactions between submarine channel systems and deformation in deepwater fold belts: Examples from the Levant Basin, Eastern Mediterranean sea

Submarine channel levee systems form important hydrocarbon reservoirs in many deep marine settings and are often deposited within a structurally active setting. This study focuses on recent submarine channels that developed within a deepwater fold and thrust belt setting from the Levant Basin, eastern Mediterranean Sea. Compressional deformation within the study area is driven by the up-dip collapse of the Nile cone above the ductile Messinian Evaporites. Structures such as folds and strike slip faults exert a strong control on channel location and development over time. From this study four end-member submarine channel–structure interactions can be defined: Confinement, diversion, deflection and blocking. Each of these channel–structure interactions results in a distinct submarine channel morphology and pattern of development compared to unconfined channel levee systems. Each interaction can also be used to assess timing relationships between submarine channel development and deformation.     

Describing and generating facies models for reservoir characterisation: 2D map view

This paper documents a new method for describing channel-related sedimentary deposits based on formal language theory. Using this method an analogue model of a sedimentary deposit can be encoded as a grammar. A program, called a parser, has been developed which can generate stochastic maps of these sedimentary deposits based on information in a specified grammar. The maps of sedimentary deposits generated by the parser have the same type, spatial arrangement, shape and size distribution as the analogue model. The successful generation of depositional maps represents a crucial step in the ongoing development of a new technique designed to generate 3D static geological models of sedimentary successions. The maps can be conditioned to match sparse hard data in the form of channel segments interpreted from seismic horizon maps.     

武汉区域气象中心数值预报业务并行计算机系统

对武汉区域气象中心并行计算机系统进行了详细地介绍，分析了并行计算机体系结构、网络和存储系统特点；给出了在并行计算机SP上实现数值预报业务并行化的部分结果；对数值预报模式在串、并行编程环境下的结果进行了分析比较。     

地理信息服务概述

地理信息服务由于其提供的是空间型信息这一特点,已成为信息服务业中的一个重要组成部分。鉴于综合论述地理信息服务的文章或论著并不多见,文中归纳总结了地理信息服务研究的总体框架,包括技术体系、信息框架、服务模式、应用分析及产业分析,并对各部分进行了简要的综合论述。     

地理信息服务的思考与探索

GIS正在从传统意义上的地理信息系统向地理信息服务发生偏转,地理信息服务已成为信息服务业中的一个重要组成部分。文中归纳总结了地理信息服务概念、技术体系、服务模式以及我国地理信息服务发展的差距、对策与建议。