USGCRP土地覆被研究的最新动向

本文根据美国全球变化研究委员会提出的“美国全球变化研究计划”（ＵＳＧＣＲＰ）,概要介绍了土地覆被研究的目标、内容和设想。由于美国在这一领域研究中的领先地位,因此本文基本反映了国际上的最新趋势。     

塔里木河下游垦区土地利用/覆盖动态变化过程分析

在分析和解译1977、1987和1999年三个时相的MSS,TM和ETM 遥感影像基础上,得到塔里木河下游垦区22年来土地利用/覆盖的动态变化信息,并对其数量变化特征、重心移动和主要变化类型进行了研究。结果表明:塔里木河下游垦区的水体、高覆盖草地、林地和中覆盖草地的面积锐减,主要转变为沙地和盐碱地;水体、耕地、林地、沼泽、草地和居民点的重心不断向塔里木河上游方向移动,这与垦区的人口和经济的重心移动方向是一致的,而沙地和盐碱地的重心则向相反的方向移动;林地-中覆盖草地-低覆盖草地-沙地/盐碱地转变的规律非常明显;中上游来水量减少和下游垦区的土地开发利用是导致土地退化和草场沙化的主要原因。     

Rural Development and Social Exclusion: A case study of sustainability and distributive issues in Brazil

Rural modernisation based on the concept of the Green Revolution has changed the social and ecological landscape in Brazil, particularly since the late 1960s. The expansion of extensive cattle ranching and mechanised agriculture have been major driving forces in this transformation process. In the Midwest, one of the last frontier regions in Brazil, extensive savanna land has recently been cleared for cash-crop production and pastureland. After the displacement of indigenous people during early confrontations with Portuguese explorers in the eighteenth century, we are now witnessing the dispossession of traditional small-scale farmers who had settled in the region two centuries ago. Rural communities have remained marginalised and powerless in the face of pressure and impact from recent development of agribusiness and cattle ranching. The agricultural activity of the smallholders is subsistence-oriented with little market integration, and their production system (shifting cultivation) is based on local knowledge, which seems to be well adapted to the savanna environment. The system is no longer sustainable. Due to capitalist expansion and prevailing conditions of unsecured land tenure, lack of access to basic assets, and high population pressure on scarce resources, the peasants have had to intensify production. This research focuses on the consequences of recent social, economic and environmental change in traditional rural communities.     

近20a西喀喇昆仑地区吉尔吉特河流域冰川面积变化及其对气候变化的响应

冰川被誉为“固态水库”,对区域生态环境和发展至关重要。喀喇昆仑山地区的冰川出现了退缩停滞乃至前进的现象,被称为“喀喇昆仑异常”。为探明西喀喇昆仑地区吉尔吉特河(Gilgit River)流域的冰川面积变化及其影响因素,本文基于1993、2000、2016年三个时期的多景LandsatTM/ETM+/OLI遥感数据,通过目视解译法提取三期冰川边界。结果表明:(1)1993—2016年,吉尔吉特河流域冰川面积共萎缩了45.82±9.07km^2,约占1993年冰川总面积的4.07±0.80%。其中,1993—2000年冰川面积的年均萎缩率为0.19±0.02%,2000—2016年冰川面积的年均萎缩率为0.17±0.03%,即近15a来研究区冰川面积萎缩呈微弱的减缓趋势。(2)1993—2016年研究区内共有12条冰川发生过前进现象,其中G073768E36822N(冰川编码)冰川发生了较为快速的前进,在1996—1999年末端前进了477m,前进速率为159m·a^-1。(3)近40a来,吉尔吉特河流域的气温呈持续上升趋势,降水呈先减少后增加趋势。气温升高是研究区冰川退缩的主要原因,降水的增加缓解了因升温而导致的冰川面积萎缩。     

土地利用变化研究中的GIS空间分析方法及其应用

土地利用变化研究尤其是空间变化研究 ,离不开 GIS的空间分析方法。该方法的数据基础主要是矢量格式的土地利用图件和遥感解译制图成果 ;模型基础包括 GIS的时空数据模型、属性数据模型和提取土地利用变化特征的原理模型 ;而数据处理过程则涉及GIS系统的数据转换功能、编辑功能、空间分析功能、数据库操作功能、空间统计分析功能以及图形显示功能等。本文结合北京市土地利用变化的实例分析 ,从上述三方面详细阐述了 GIS的空间分析方法及其在土地利用变化研究中的应用。     

Remotely sensing the spatial and temporal land cover changes in Eastern Mau forest reserve and Lake Nakuru drainage basin,Kenya

This study aimed at characterizing land cover dynamics for four decades in Eastern Mau forest and Lake Nakuru basin, Kenya. The specific objectives were to: (i) identify and map the major land cover types in 1973, 1985, 2000 and 2011; (ii) detect and determine the magnitude, rates and nature of the land cover changes that had occurred between these dates, and; (iii) establish the spatial and temporal distribution of these changes. Land cover types were discriminated through partitioning, hybrid classification and spatial reclassification of multi-temporal Landsat imagery. The land cover products were then validated and overlaid in post-classification comparison to detect the changes between 1973 and 2011. The accuracies of the land cover maps for 1973, 1985, 2000 and 2011 were 88%, 95%, 80% and 89% respectively. Six land cover classes, namely forests-shrublands, grasslands, croplands, built-up lands, bare lands and water bodies, were mapped. Forests-shrublands dominated in 1973, 1985 and 2000 covering about 1067 km², 893 km² and 797 km² respectively, but were surpassed by croplands (953 km²) in 2011. Bare lands occupied the least area that varied between 2 km² and 7 km² during this period. Overall, forests-shrublands and grasslands decreased by 428 km² and 258 km² at the annual average rates of 1% each, whereas croplands and built-up lands expanded by 660 km² and 24 km² at the annual rates of 6% and 16% respectively. The key hotspots of these changes were distributed in all directions of the study area, but at different times. Therefore, policies that integrate restoration and conservation of natural ecosystems with enhancement of agricultural productivity are strongly recommended. This will ensure environmental sustainability and socio-economic well-being in the area. Future research needs to assess the impacts of the land cover changes on ecosystem services and to project the future patterns of land cover changes.     

What are the transitions of woodlands at the landscape level? Change trajectories of forest,non-forest and reclamation woody vegetation elements in a mining landscape in North-western Czech Republic

This study answers the following research questions: 1) What are the change trajectories of woody vegetation elements at the landscape level? 2) What are the differences in change trajectories amongst the various categories of forest, non-forest and reclamation woody vegetation? 3) How do the change trajectories differ in mining and non-mining landscapes? The study area, measuring 209.6 km², is located in the north-western part of the Czech Republic and may be broken down into 76.8 km² of mining landscape and 132.8 km² of non-mining landscape. Brown coal mining began in this region during the second half of the 18th century and led to the radical transformation of the landscape, including woodlands, during the second half of the 20th century. The source data for this study was obtained from the original stable cadastre maps (1842) and the landscape field mapping performed in 2010. The various woody vegetation elements (forest, non-forest, and reclamation woody plants) and land use/cover (LULC) categories were identified. The GIS symmetrical difference tool was subsequently used to perform an overlay analysis for the individual woody vegetation elements in order to study the change trajectories and to obtain information about the woodlands that have remained unchanged (continuous), the ones that have disappeared (extinct), and the ones that have newly appeared in the landscape (recent). In the case of the non-mining landscape, the total proportion of woodlands has increased (from 17 to 32%), but there has been a decline in the overall volume of forest woody plants found in these areas (from 93 to 74%). As far as the mining landscape is concerned, there has also been an increase in the area covered by woodlands (from 10 to 20%), however, the proportion of forest woody plants has decreased to a much greater extent (from 90 to 31%). From the perspective of extinct woody vegetation, 23.3% of all types of woodlands in the mining landscape may be classified as such, as compared to 10.8% in the non-mining landscape. The primary causes of this decline are mining activities and newly built-up areas. More continuous woody vegetation may be found in the non-mining landscape (42.1%) as compared to the mining landscape (15.4%). Recent woody vegetation, which has primarily replaced grasslands and partially arable land, prevails in both the mining (61.3%) as well as the non-mining (47.1%) landscapes. Different categories of woodlands (forest, non-forest, and reclamation woody vegetation elements) exhibit various change dynamics due to their different structure and the functions they serve. At the most basic level, there has been an overall increase in the occurrence of woodlands in the studied areas. However, once GIS spatial analysis is applied it is possible to see more complex processes in the development of woodland areas as characterised by gains and losses, and it is possible to identify mining and agricultural extensification as the two most significant factors behind the historical changes. Mining leads to a direct decrease in the area of woodlands; conversely, the spontaneous succession of vegetation resulting from agricultural extensification and forest reclamation facilitates woodland recovery. Forest reclamation and reforestation are essential on order to ensure the time continuity of woodlands in both types of landscape, i.e. mining and non-mining. The study presented in this paper proves that it is relevant to analyse the changes occurring in different woodland categories separately. The same methodology may be applied when studying the change dynamics of other important landscape elements, such as wood pastures and wetlands.     

Assessment of the image misregistration effects on object-based change detection

High-spatial resolution remote sensing imagery provides unique opportunities for detailed characterization and monitoring of landscape dynamics. To better handle such data sets, change detection using the object-based paradigm, i.e., object-based change detection (OBCD), have demonstrated improved performances over the classic pixel-based paradigm. However, image registration remains a critical pre-process, with new challenges arising, because objects in OBCD are of various sizes and shapes. In this study, we quantified the effects of misregistration on OBCD using high-spatial resolution SPOT 5 imagery (5 m) for three types of landscapes dominated by urban, suburban and rural features, representing diverse geographic objects. The experiments were conducted in four steps: (i) Images were purposely shifted to simulate the misregistration effect. (ii) Image differencing change detection was employed to generate difference images with all the image-objects projected to a feature space consisting of both spectral and texture variables. (iii) The changes were extracted using the Mahalanobis distance and a change ratio. (iv) The results were compared to the ‘real’ changes from the image pairs that contained no purposely introduced registration error. A pixel-based change detection method using similar steps was also developed for comparisons. Results indicate that misregistration had a relatively low impact on object size and shape for most areas. When the landscape is comprised of small mean object sizes (e.g., in urban and suburban areas), the mean size of ‘change’ objects was smaller than the mean of all objects and their size discrepancy became larger with the decrease in object size. Compared to the results using the pixel-based paradigm, OBCD was less sensitive to the misregistration effect, and the sensitivity further decreased with an increase in local mean object size. However, high-spatial resolution images typically have higher spectral variability within neighboring pixels than the relatively low resolution datasets. As a result, accurate image registration remains crucial to change detection even if an object-based approach is used.     

新疆塔里木盆地环境变迁与人类文明兴衰初探——以克里雅河地区为例

本文以新疆克里雅河为重点研究,分析了塔里木盆地的环境变迁及其与人类文明兴衰的相关关系,并展示了未来的环境变化。盆地和沙漠的形成与青藏高原的隆起息息相关,第四纪的三次冰期和间冰期的发生,决定了高原和盆地环境变化的序列。其中,中更新世的高原隆升对现代地貌和环境有决定性意义,使沙漠和黄土形成,气候环境总体向旱化方向发展;全新世以来的环境变化或划分出早、中,晚三个不同的干湿期变化。历史时期,人类活动所引起的环境变化与塔里木盆地古丝绸南路文明兴衰紧密相连;近代人类正面临沙漠化扩展,气候变暖的严重挑战。     

北半球冬季110°—120°E垂直经向环流的年际变化及其与中国东部同期降水的关系

利用NCEP／NCAR再分析月平均风场资料和中国东部120个站的降水资料,分析了1951--2010年北半球冬季110°-120°E经向环流的气候特征,定义了北半球冬季110°-120°E低纬Hadley环流和中高纬气流强度指数,并分析了其强度的长期变化趋势以及对中国东部同期降水的影响。结果表明：（1）北半球冬季110°-120°E经向环流主要包括低纬Hadley环流和中高纬度从高层到低层较-致的偏北下沉气流。（2）北半球冬季110°-120°EHadley环流和中高纬气流强度有明显的年际和年代际变化,二者在长期变化趋势上表现-致,即在1990年以前呈约20a的振荡周期,且波动更大,而在1990年以后呈约10a的振荡周期,波动相对较小。（3）北半球冬季110°-120°E经向环流强度指数对中国东部同期降水的年际变率具有较高的解释率,二者在统计上呈显著的负相关关系。北半球冬季110°-120°EHadley环流强度和中国东部同期降水相关程度大值区集中在江南、华南及江淮地区,中高纬气流强度和中国东部同期降水相关程度大值区集中在西北、江淮及江南地区。（4）东亚地区冬季经向环流异常的显著差异主要表现在中高纬度反向的异常气流和中低纬度反向异常环流圈的变化。强（弱）经向风年,北半球中高纬度从高层到低层为异常的偏北（南）气流,中低纬度对流层存在顺时针（逆时针）方向闭合的异常经向环流,对应中国东部降水显著减少（增多）。