我国海洋资源环境经济复合系统演化研究 ——基于Logistic模型的实证分析

随着我国各项海洋事业和活动有序推进,实现海洋资源、环境、经济协调可持续,对海洋高质量发展具有重要意义.从资源、环境和经济3个层面构建我国海洋复合系统,运用熵权TOPSIS方法进行测算,通过建立Logistic模型,对我国海洋资源环境经济复合系统演化过程进行拟合分析和趋势预测.得到相关研究结论:海洋资源环境经济复合系统是...     

Modeling of climate change impacts on Lake Burullus,coastal lagoon (Egypt)

Coastal lagoons are particularly vulnerable to climate change, in particular, Sea Level Rise (SLR) due to their shallowness. Lake Burullus provides a variety of socio-economic services as the second largest coastal lagoon in Egypt. Recently, it has experienced significant ecological deterioration. Thus, its ecosystem is fragile in the face of anthropogenic induced changes. The main objective of the current study is to investigate the climate change impacts on characteristics of Lake Burullus. A depth averaged hydro-ecological modeling system, MIKE21, was applied to develop an eco - hydrodynamic model for the lake. The developed model was calibrated and verified for two successive years: July 2011–June 2012 and July 2012–June 2013. The model simulations exhibited good agreement with the measurements during the calibration and verification processes. Six different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were compared, using six different statistical metrics, to determine the most accurate one for the study area. The required meteorological input, including surface air temperature, precipitation, and evaporation were derived from the selected RCM. The meteorological input was extracted for two different years in the 21 ^st century considering one Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Report. Regional SLR projections for the Mediterranean Sea for the selected RCP scenario and the two studied years were obtained. These future climate change estimates were used to modify the validated model of the lake. A sensitivity analysis was applied to assess effect of future climatic conditions and SLR, separately. The results revealed that the lake water depths will increase and it will be warmer and more saline. Significant spatial variability of the studied parameters under climate change forcing is expected. Consequently, climate change is going to restrict the lake's ability to preserve the present-day species. An urgent management plan involving adaptation works, should be implemented to reduce such potential species losses in Egyptian lagoons.     

基于节水视角的中国水资源压力时空演变及影响因素分析

基于水资源节约视角,采用区域水资源规划消耗量占该地区水资源可利用量的比重来测算水资源压力指数,运用趋势分析、探索性数据分析(ESDA)方法对2005-2017年中国31个省市水资源压力指数空间格局演化特征与空间相关性进行分析,并选取8个相关变量,采用地理探测器探究影响水资源压力指数空间分异的因素,结论如下:①研究期内,...     

Mechanism of collision model for bedload transport

The current study introduces a new particle–particle collision model as well as a classical particle–wall collision model to simulate the process of bedload transport. Large eddy simulation and two-way coupling Lagrangian point–particle models also are applied. Flow conditions for all simulations are done based on previous experiments and four comparison cases are studied. The bedload function result obtained using this model agrees with the previous studies, which proves that the model is reasonable and effective in dealing with bedload transport in turbulent flow. Otherwise, failure to consider the particle–particle collision, Basset force, or Saffman lift force in the model lead to underestimating the bedload transport rate.     

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of geopolitical relations among Arctic countries based on news big data

Global warming has caused the Arctic Ocean ice cover to shrink. This endangers the environment but has made traversing the Arctic channel possible. Therefore, the strategic position of the Arctic has been significantly improved. As a near-Arctic country, China has formulated relevant policies that will be directly impacted by changes in the international relations between the eight Arctic countries(regions). A comprehensive and real-time analysis of the various characteristics of the Arctic geog...     

基于街景图像的厦门本岛环境特征对住宅价格的影响研究

住宅价格的空间分异是城市空间资源配置不均衡的外在表现,理解住宅价格的主导影响因素及其空间分异特征对于住区规划及房价调控政策的制定具有重要意义。既有研究较少考虑环境品质对住宅价格的影响和影响因素的作用尺度差异,针对以上问题,本文引入街景图像,在特征价格模型的基础上拓展环境特征,构建多尺度地理加权回归（MGWR）模型,研究环境特征对住宅价格的影响效用,并通过分析其他控制变量的系数空间格局,总结各变量的空间分异特征规律。主要结论为：(1)街景图像测度的环境特征更符合人们对居住环境的真实感知,研究结论可为居住环境品质提升提供更加精细化的设计策略;MGWR模型对变量的空间分异现象具有更接近于真实值的拟合效果,可描述不同变量的作用尺度差异,这有助于为特定地区制定针对性规划策略。(2)厦门本岛住宅价格呈现显著的聚类特征,并沿城市核心发展轴呈“带状”结构分布。(3) 3个环境特征变量对于住宅价格均为显著的正向影响,且作用接近全局尺度,街景绿视率的影响最强,其次是天空开敞度和相对步行指数。(4)总结各变量的系数空间分异规律,发现不同特征地区住宅价格的主导影响因素不同,核心地区主要受交通、教育因素的影响;...     

面向高分遥感影像道路提取的轻量级双注意力和特征补偿残差网络模型

针对高分辨率遥感影像背景复杂,道路提取容易受阴影、建筑物和铁路等背景信息干扰的问题,提出一种带有轻量级双注意力和特征补偿机制的DAFCResUnet模型。该模型在ResUnet的基础上,通过增加轻量级的双注意力和特征补偿模块实现模型在性能和时空复杂度上的平衡。其中,双注意力模块可以增强模型的特征提取能力,特征补偿模块可以融合网络中来自深浅层的道路特征。在DeepGlobe和GF-2道路数据集上的实验结果表明,DAFCResUnet模型的IoU和F1-score可以达到0.6713、0.8033和0.7402、0.8507,模型的整体精度优于U-Net、ResUnet和VNet模型。与U-Net和ResUnet模型相比,DAFCResUnet模型仅增加了少量的计算量和参数量,但IoU和F1-score均有较大幅度的提高;与VNet模型相比,DAFCResUnet模型在计算量和参数量远低于VNet的情况下取得了更高的精度,模型在精度和时空复杂度两方面均有优势。相比其他对比模型,DAFCResUnet模型具有更强的特征提取和抗干扰能力,能更好解决道路上的干扰物、与道路特征相似地物、树荫或阴影...     

向心扩张指数构建及其在郑州都市圈城镇空间扩张中的应用

探究城镇空间扩张的方向性及其时间变化特征,能够反映都市圈发展过程中核心城市与边缘地区空间关联的动态过程,为制定都市圈发展的相关政策提供科学依据。本文从都市圈的核心城市与边缘地区相互关联的视角,借鉴物理学中力的分解原理,构建了同时兼顾扩张强度和方向性的向心扩张指数CEI,并以郑州都市圈为对象,采用2000—2018年30 m分辨率的全球人造不透水面数据产品GAIA,分析了建设用地扩张的总体数量和占比变化、动态度及强度变化、以及空间方向性变化等特征,进一步应用多元逻辑回归模型,揭示了影响城镇空间扩张向心性的关键因素。结果表明：(1)向心扩张指数CEI为揭示都市圈核心城市对边缘地区的辐射带动作用提供方法支撑,能够定量刻画边缘地区朝向核心城市的发展趋势;(2)在郑州都市圈近20年的快速扩张过程中,尽管各区县市的DEI指数和CEI指数随时间而增减波动,但郑州都市圈总体呈现“核心—边缘”发展模式,除个别地级市中心城区及其下辖县以外,多数区县市的向心性显著且随时间增强,郑州市中心城区对于边缘地区具有显著的辐射带动作用;(3)核心城市与边缘地区的人均GDP差异及城镇化率差异是影响边缘地区向心扩张的重要...     

Genesis of Geothermal Fluid in Typical Geothermal Fields in Western Sichuan,China

The hydrogeochemical characteristics of geothermal fluids can reveal the genesis of geothermal systems and act as important references for developing and using geothermal resources.This study presents hydrogeochemical processes and thermal cycle mechanisms of typical geothermal fields in Western Sichuan.Based on the geological conditions in Western Sichuan,29 hot springs in three geothermal fields in the Batang and Litang areas were selected for hydrochemical and isotopic (δD andδ~(18)O) analyses.Furthermore,the temperature of the thermal reservoir was calculated and the upflow cooling process of the hot springs was analyzed.Most of the subterranean hot waters in Batang and Litang are of the HCO_3-Na hydrochemical type.The ion variation in Batang is primarily affected by water-rock interactions.There is a strong positive correlation between Na~+,B~-,and Cl~-in Litang,suggesting that they have the same material source.The Na~+and metaboric acid content is relatively high,which indicates that the groundwater runoff in both areas is relatively long-lasting,with reduced flow velocity;moreover,the metasilicic acid content is relatively high,which supports this conclusion.Both hydrogen and oxygen isotopes plot near the atmospheric precipitation line,indicating that groundwater recharge is functionally obtained from precipitation.The calculated thermal storage temperatures in Batang and Litang were 88–199°C and 96–154°C,respectively.The proportion of cold water mixing in Batang was 64%–67%,while that in Litang was 60%–68%.According to the calculated results,the initial thermal cycle depth of the Batang area (4540–4780 m) was greater than that of the Litang area (3150–3960 m).The enthalpy of the deep parental geothermal fluid in Batang was 1550 J/g with a Cl~-concentration of 37 mg/L,while that in Litang was 2100 J/g with a Cl~-concentration of 48 mg/L.     

印尼贯穿流的诊断计算

利用全球大洋二维的自由表面诊断模型并采用气候态Levitus(2001)温盐资料及COADS风应力资料估算印尼贯穿流及其季节变化。结果表明,南海的Karimata海峡出流量对印尼贯穿流有显著的贡献,印尼贯穿流的平均流量为16.6Sv,流量在6月最大(18.5Sv),4月最小(12.7Sv)。与其它模式结果和观测结果一致的是,Makas-sar海峡流量在7月最大(13.8Sv),1月最小(0.2Sv),其年平均流量为6.7Sv;Karimata海峡是南海南部最大的出水口,年平均流量为2.6Sv,爪哇海水在5—9月之间流入南海,其它月份南海南部水流入爪哇海;Timor海峡是印尼贯穿流最大的出口;Lombok流量的季节变化表现为半年周期。通过模拟计算结果,结合动力计算,获取了Makassar海峡经向速度的垂向结构,结果显示Makassar海峡的经向速度有明显的垂向切变,100m层次的南向速度为30—35cm.s-1。