基于最大似然法的亚洲地震人口损失预测

亚洲是全球地震活动,特别是浅源地震活动最活跃的地区之一,由于亚洲大多数国家属于发展中国家,抗御地震的能力偏低,导致地震灾害十分严重。本文采用最大似然法,据亚洲9个国家历史上因各次地震死亡的人口资料,计算得到了各国不同时期因地震造成不同死亡度的概率曲线;另外,由各国每10年的人口统计资料,拟合得到各国人口的增长曲线。将历史上因各次强震的死亡人数归一到2010年人口的死亡数字,并以此数据给出了各国在考虑了人口增长情况下的因震人口损失预测结果。     

Spatial variability of throughfall and stemflow in an exotic pine plantation of subtropical coastal Australia

Large‐scale exotic pine plantations have been developed for timber production in subtropical Australia. Few studies investigate the spatial variability of both throughfall and stemflow in such managed pine plantations despite their acknowledged effects on the heterogeneity of hydrological and biochemical processes of forested ecosystems. To examine the spatial variability of rainfall under a 12‐year‐old pine plantation in a subtropical coastal area of Australia, we observed gross rainfall, throughfall and stemflow over a 1‐year period. Our results show that the spatial variability of gross rainfall within a 50 m × 50 m plot is minimal. Throughfall is significantly different among three tree zones (midway between rows, west and east side of trunks), particularly for rainfall <50 mm, with the highest throughfall on the east side of the tree trunks (sum = 85% of gross rainfall) and the lowest in the midway between tree rows (sum = 68% of gross rainfall). These spatial patterns persist among 84% of recorded rainfall events. Spatial variability and time stability of throughfall are better explained by canopy interception of the inclined rainfall resulting from the prevailing easterly wind direction throughout the experiment. The annual stemflow is different among individual sample trees, which is mainly ascribed to the difference in tree size (e.g. projected canopy area and stem diameter). The outcomes of this study would help future investigators better design appropriate sampling strategies in these pine plantations under similar climate conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrodynamic characteristics of rill flow on steep slopes

Rill erosion is a dominant sediment source on sloping lands. However, the amount of soil loss from rills on steep slopes is vastly more than that on gentle slopes because of differences in rill shape and hydraulic patterns. The aims of this paper are to determine the hydrodynamic characteristics of rills and the friction coefficients in steep slope conditions and to propose modifications of some hydraulic parameters used in soil loss prediction models. A series of inflow experiments was conducted on loess slopes. The results show that the geometric and hydraulic properties of rill on the steep loess slopes, which are characterized by the mean width of cross sections, mean velocity and mean depth of flow, are related to discharge and slope gradient in power functions. However, the related exponents to discharge are 0.26, 0.48 and 0.26, respectively, which are different from the exponents derived in previous studies, which were conducted on gentle slopes. The Manning roughness coefficient ranged from 0.035 to 0.071, with an average of 0.0536, and the Darcy–Weisbach friction coefficients varied from 0.4 to 1.9. The roughness coefficients are closely related to the Reynolds numbers and flow volumes; however, the correlations vary with slope gradient. The roughness coefficients are directly proportional to the Reynolds number and the flow volume on steep slopes, in contrast with the roughness coefficients found on gentle slopes, which decrease as the Reynolds number and flow volume increase. This difference is caused by the interactions among the hydraulics of the flow, the shape of the rills and the sediment concentrations on steep slopes. The results indicate that parameters used in models to predict rill erosion have to be modified according to slope gradient. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

云南地震应急快速评估模型本地化集成研究

通过评估模型库建立,对策建议模板设计,利用COM技术将模型库与GIS系统进行无缝集成,研发了云南地震应急快速评估软件系统,实现震后地震影响场速判,人员伤亡、经济损失评估、专题图输出、对策建议生成等功能。经过2012~2014年云南6次5.0级以上破坏性地震检验,系统评估结果满足灾情速判和应急辅助决策需求。     

新疆不同区域牧业雪灾损失时频变化特征

选用新疆1952-2013年75个县707条雪灾害资料, 采用灰色关联评估模型以县为单位将新疆分为特重雪灾区、 重雪灾区、 一般雪灾区、 小雪灾区. 用气候趋势系数与五阶函数分析各雪灾区牲畜死亡数额的长期变化趋势, 并用morlet小波分析其振荡周期. 结果表明: 全疆及各雪灾区牲畜死亡数额基本都存在23 a左右的长周期, 14～17 a中周期, 10 a左右的小周期, 另外, 还存在5～7 a的小波动, 各区周期振荡的强弱及时间范围不同. 全疆及特重雪灾区牲畜死亡数额长期以来有减少趋势; 而重雪灾区和一般雪灾区牲畜死亡数额长期以来有微弱的增加趋势. 特重雪灾区牲畜死亡数额长期变化趋势决定了新疆雪灾牲畜死亡数额的长期变化趋势, 全疆平均每年因雪灾牲畜死亡数额以0.4%的速率递减, 特重雪灾区每年按上一年度总额1.4%的速率递减. 由于20世纪80年代开始, 新疆有计划、 大规模推行牧民定居工程, 从而大大提高了新疆牧业抗御自然灾害的能力, 以及冬春气温升高的缘故, 使得全疆及各雪灾区牲畜死亡数额大大减少. 因为各牧业区实施牧民定居工程开始的时间不同, 使全疆各雪灾区牲畜死亡数额高值期(年代际与年际尺度振荡的活跃期)进入低值期(少发时期)的临界时间存在差异.     

隧道工程因素对地下水环境影响研究

隧道对地下水环境影响科学评价一直是隧道工程界难以回避又备受困扰的技术难题之一,掌握工程因素对地下水资源流失量及水位变化的影响规律是开展地下水环境影响评价的理论基础。以350 km/h高速铁路双线隧道V级围岩“半包”防水复合式衬砌为计算原型,通过隧道瞬态渗流模型分析了地下水资源流失量及水位变化随时间的变化规律。进一步研究了工程因素中水位埋深、施工方法、施工时间、喷射混凝土厚度、喷射混凝土抗渗性能、喷射混凝土开裂渗漏、地层注浆加固方式、地层注浆加固范围、注浆体抗渗性能及隔断墙对地下水资源流失量及水位变化的影响规律。根据工程因素的影响规律,探讨了施工期及运营期地下水环境保护的控制方法和技术措施。     

Stellar dynamo driven wind braking versus disc coupling

Star‐disc coupling is considered in numerical models where the stellar field is not an imposed perfect dipole, but instead a more irregular self‐adjusting dynamo‐generated field. Using axisymmetric simulations of the hydromagnetic mean‐field equations, it is shown that the resulting stellar field configuration is more complex, but significantly better suited for driving a stellar wind. In agreement with recent findings by a number of people, star‐disc coupling is less efficient in braking the star than previously thought. Moreover, stellar wind braking becomes equally important. In contrast to a perfect stellar dipole field, dynamo‐generated stellar fields favor field‐aligned accretion with considerably higher velocity at low latitudes, where the field is weaker and originating in the disc. Accretion is no longer nearly periodic (as it is in the case of a stellar dipole), but it is more irregular and episodic. (© 2006 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

三管并行盾构隧道近接施工纵向效应离心模型试验研究

结合上海轨道交通9号线R413标段三管并行盾构隧道下穿沪杭铁路段工程,通过模拟盾构隧道的地层损失的方法,进行了离心模型试验,研究了设置地层加固和不设置地层加固情况下三管并行盾构隧道近接施工时的衬砌内力纵向效应规律。试验结果表明,中间隧道施工时,受其影响左右隧道拱腰位置弯矩和轴力均出现较大变化,设置地层加固可以有效减小纵向效应的影响,但仍需注意在施工中加强盾构壁后注浆,设置纵向钢架以减小近接施工纵向效应对管片尤其是接头处的影响。     

预应力锚索预应力损失研究

分析了岩土锚索预应力损失的主要因素,建立了锚索预应力损失随时间变化模型,在此基础上,较精确地推算了锚索预应力损失情况及最终损失量,并为锚索预应力计算提供理论依据。通过对襄-十高速公路锚索预应力模拟计算,较好地印证了锚索预应力损失模型的合理性。     

Transmission losses in rills on dryland hillslopes

Transmission losses through the beds of hillslope rills were studied at two sites in the semi‐arid south‐western United States. At one site the rills were sand‐bedded and at the other they were gravel‐bedded. Transmission losses in the sand‐bedded rills are about 66% higher than those in the gravel‐bedded rills. The former show evidence of increasing transmission loss with increasing depth of flow, whereas the latter do not. In both cases, transmission losses in the rills are about an order of magnitude greater than infiltration losses in adjacent interrill areas. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.