Expected loss‐based alarm threshold set for earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) seem to have potential as tools for real‐time seismic risk management and mitigation. In fact, although the evacuation of buildings requires warning time not available in many urbanized areas threatened by seismic hazard, they may still be used for the real‐time protection of critical facilities using automatic systems in order to reduce the losses subsequent to a catastrophic event. This is possible due to the real‐time seismology, which consists of methods and procedures for the rapid estimation of earthquake features, as magnitude and location, based on measurements made on the first seconds of the P‐waves. An earthquake engineering application of earthquake early warning (EEW) may be intended as a system able to issue the alarm, if some recorded parameter exceeds a given threshold, to activate risk mitigation actions before the quake strikes at a site of interest. Feasibility analysis and design of such EEWS require the assessment of the expected loss reduction due to the security action and set of the alarm threshold. In this paper a procedure to carry out these tasks in the performance‐based earthquake engineering probabilistic framework is proposed. A merely illustrative example refers to a simple structure assumed to be a classroom. Structural damage and non‐structural collapses are considered; the security action is to shelter occupants below the desks. The cost due to a false alarm is assumed to be related to the interruption of didactic activities. Results show how the comparison of the expected losses, for the alarm‐issuance and non‐issuance cases, allows setting the alarm threshold on a quantitative and consistent basis, and how it may be a tool for the design of engineering applications of EEW. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rapid magnetic susceptibility measurement as a tracer to assess the erosion–deposition process using tillage homogenization and simple proportional models: A case study in northern of Morocco

Soil erosion is a significant threat in the Rif region in northern Morocco. Hence, accurate cartography of the phenomenon, magnitude, and extent of erosion in the area needs a simple, rapid, and economical method such as magnetic susceptibility (MS). The current study aims to: (i) determine the factors influencing the variation of soil MS, (ii) exploit MS to estimate soil loss using two approaches in different homogenous units characterized by the same climatic conditions with different edaphic characteristics (land use, slope, and lithology), and (iii) highlight the potential for using MS as a cheap and rapid tracer of a long term erosion and deposition processes. Mass-specific magnetic susceptibility at low (χ_lf) and high (χ_hf) frequencies were measured for 182 soil samples collected in the study area. A tillage homogenization (T-H) model and a simple proportional model (SPM) were applied on an undisturbed soil profile to predict the eroded soil depths for given cores. The results confirm that χ_lf is influenced by land use, slope, and soil type. Pedogenesis is the main factor affecting soil MS enhancement, indicated by homogenous magnetic mineralogy with a dominance of super-paramagnetic (SP) and stable single domain (SSD) magnetic grains. The study results show that higher soil losses have occurred in almost all the soil samples when applying the T-H model compared to application of the SPM. The SPM underestimates erosion due to its ignorance of the MS of the plow layers after erosion. The current study implies the high efficacy of magnetic susceptibility as the quick, easily measurable, simple, and cost-effective approach that can be used as an alternative technique for evaluating soil redistribution.     

The Advances and Prospects of Research on Earthquake Engineering at IEM

This paper describes briefly the recent advances and acievements of the research projects conducted by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM) in the period of the Ninth Five-Year Plan(1995-2000) with the support of the China Seismological Bureau(CSB),These projects are related with key problems in the field of earthquake engineering.They are:development of the methods for determining earthquake resistant design load level,study on mechanisms of earthquake damage to buildings.development of new technology of base isolation,and study on earthquake damage prediction and seismic losss assessment methods.Through these studies,quite a number of problems have een solved and some of them have een applied in earthquake engineering design and practice.     

2021年、2022年中国大陆地震灾害损失述评

基于2021年、2022年中国5.0级及以上地震目录,结合应急管理部、有关省(自治区、直辖市)地震局的地震灾害评估报告和相关资料,对中国大陆地震灾害情况、主要地震灾害事件及其特点进行了总结和分析。此外,按省份总结了各省地震灾害事件及地震灾害特点。其中,云南省中强震多、强震少,震区房屋抗震能力较高,人员伤亡较小; 四川省中强震少、强震多,次生灾害较为发育,造成严重人员伤亡; 青海省虽然震级高、破坏性强、致灾范围广,但震区地广人稀,房屋抗震设防等级较高,人员伤亡少。最后,结合历史震害统计数据,分析对比近2年中国大陆地震灾害致灾特点。     

上海市防震减灾应急决策信息系统-GPS的应用

为了适应上海经济建设高速发展和超大型城市防震减灾工作的需要,建立城市防震减灾应急决策信息系统已成为必然．本文将地理信息系统（GIS）技术应用于上海市防震减灾应急决策信息系统（宝山试点区）,介绍了此系统各功能模块的结构和作用．此系统由７个功能模块组成,即地震地质基本信息、地震灾害快速评估子系统、地震应急决策信息子系统、信息查询、系统维护管理、帮助和退出等．其核心部分是地震灾害快速评估子系统和地震应急决策信息子系统．本文还介绍了彩红外航片遥感技术在上海市防震减灾应急决策信息系统中的应用．     

云南省乡镇农村地震灾害直接经济损失研究

根据1993-2003年30余次云南省地震的损失评估调查资料,建立了云南省农村乡镇各烈度区房屋建筑物损失与受灾人口的定量关系,初步建立了各烈度区水利设施损失、生命线工程损失与房屋建筑物损失的关系。以云南地区2004年-2005年4次地震为实例,用以上计算方法估算了4次地震的直接经济损失,并与地震现场评估的结果作比较,结果表明,该计算模型实用性强,对一般性地震的模拟误差平均值在30％左右。     

基于人工神经网络的地震经济损失评估

地震经济损失估计是涉及多方面、多级次的复杂指标体系的非线性动力问题。其指标体系的选取以具有代表性、可靠、易获取、易于定量化为原则。应用MATLAB6.5神经网络工具箱,建立了适用于震后经济损失快速评估的三层BP神经网络地震灾害经济评估模型。     

地震灾害产业关联损失评估

对地震产业关联损失的研究现状进行了总结,对标准投入产出表的构成及内在关系进行了介绍,给出了以投入产出表为基础的地震灾害产业关联损失评估方法。     

简易房屋的地震灾害经济损失评估

国家标准《地震现场工作第4部分:灾害直接损失评估》(GB/T18208.4-2005)对现行地震现场灾害损失评估的规定进行了适当调整。云南地区震灾多、损失重,因此,选择以云南为例,有针对性地讨论了调整内容。结合云南的具体情况阐述了简易房屋的概念及其破坏等级的划分;介绍了简易房屋地震灾害损失评估的方法、原理,着重介绍了破坏比、损失比、房屋重置单价和建筑面积等计算参数的获取方法;按国家标准对2005年8月5日会泽5.3级地震中简易房屋的经济损失进行了模拟评估,并分析讨论了引起经济损失值差异的原因。     

地震损失的空间相关性及其对震害损失估计的影响

在地震危险性分析或者地震损失分布评估中,需要考虑地震损失的空间相关性的影响。目前对地震损失空间相关性的研究,主要是基于经验或半经验的方法,没有经过实际地震损失分布的验证。本文基于2011年东日本大地震收集到的55万条建筑物破坏的详细数据得出了基于实际震害的地震损失随距离关系变化的空间相关性衰减规律,给出了一个基于实际数据的拟合公式,并将其应用于最新开发的基于高精度模拟的巨灾风险分析中。利用北京地区多个地震为算例,研究了实现空间相关性模拟的样本精度问题,并且给出了不同空间相关系数对地震损失分布的影响,从而能为未来的防震减灾工作提供更好的地震损失估计结果。