Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow / Détection de tendance dans des séries de débit fluvial: 1. Débit maximum annuel

Abstract

Results of a study on change detection in hydrological time series of annual maximum river flow are presented. Out of more than a thousand long time series made available by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in Koblenz, Germany, a worldwide data set consisting of 195 long series of daily mean flow records was selected, based on such criteria as length of series, currency, lack of gaps and missing values, adequate geographical distribution, and priority to smaller catchments. The analysis of annual maximum flows does not support the hypothesis of ubiquitous growth of high flows. Although 27 cases of strong, statistically significant increase were identified by the Mann-Kendall test, there are 31 decreases as well, and most (137) time series do not show any significant changes (at the 10% level). Caution is advised in interpreting these results as flooding is a complex phenomenon, caused by a number of factors that can be associated with local, regional, and hemispheric climatic processes. Moreover, river flow has strong natural variability and exhibits long-term persistence which can confound the results of trend and significance tests.     

Catastrophic fragmentation and formation of families: Preliminary results from a new numerical model

Preliminary results of an improved version of the semiempirical model for catastrophic break up processes developed by Paolicchi et al., (1989) are presented. Among the several changes with respect to the old version, the most important seem to be related to the new treatment of gravitational effects, including self-compression and reaccumulation of fragments. In particular, the new model is able to analyze processes involving both cm-sized objects, like those studied by means of laboratory experiments, as well as much larger bodies, for which self-gravitational effects are dominant; moreover, in this latter case the model seems in principle adequate to describe with the same physics very different phenomena, like the formation of plausible asteroid families and the creation of single, rapidly spinning, objects. This fact, if confirmed by refined analyses, may be of high importance for our general understanding of asteroid collisional evolution.     

Fundamentally distinct outcomes of asteroid collisional evolution and catastrophic disruption

The outcomes of asteroid collisional evolution are presently unclear: are most asteroids larger than 1 km size gravitational aggregates reaccreted from fragments of a parent body that was collisionally disrupted, while much smaller asteroids are collisional shards that were never completely disrupted? The 16 km mean diameter S-type asteroid 433 Eros, visited by the NEAR mission, has surface geology consistent with being a fractured shard. A ubiquitous fabric of linear structural features is found on the surface of Eros and probably indicates a globally consolidated structure beneath its regolith cover. Despite the differences in absolute scale and in lighting conditions for NEAR and Hayabusa, similar features should have been found on 25143 Itokawa if present. This much smaller, 320 m diameter S-asteroid was visited by the Hayabusa spacecraft. Comparative analyses of Itokawa and Eros geology reveal fundamental differences, and interpretation of Eros geology is illuminated by comparison with Itokawa. Itokawa lacks a global lineament fabric, and its blocks, craters, and regolith may be inconsistent with formation and evolution as a fractured shard, unlike Eros. An object as small as Itokawa can form as a rubble pile, while much larger Eros formed as a fractured shard. Itokawa is not a scaled-down Eros, but formed by catastrophic disruption and reaccumulation.     

Effects of commercial timber harvesting on streamflow regimes in the Plynlimon catchments,mid‐Wales

This paper presents the first large‐scale British study of the impacts of commercial forest cutting on stream‐flow regimes. The 70% forested headwaters of the River Severn are part of the intensively instrumented long‐term Plynlimon catchment study into the impact of land use on stream flow. The forest area, comprising predominantly Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis), was planted mainly in the 1930s and 1940s. Harvesting commenced in the mid‐1980s and over the study period about half the forest has been felled. Changes in annual water yield and extreme flows were studied in four nested catchments ranging in area from about 1 to 10 km² and compared with an adjacent benchmark grassland catchment. As expected from earlier process studies the cutting of the forest increased total annual flows. Less expected was the clear evidence that the felling augmented low flows. This informs a long‐standing debate whether upland forestry increases or reduces baseflows. A particularly notable result was the lack of impact of the harvesting on storm peak flows. This may result from the application of forest management guidelines designed to reduce soil damage and erosion during the harvesting, and indicates that the forest itself has a limited impact on flooding. These findings are timely because British forest expansion peaked in the 30 years following the Second World War, and large areas of these woodlands are now approaching economic maturity and will be harvested in the next two decades. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall

Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks.     

Geotechnical Hazards Associated with Desert Environment

The aridity of the Arabian Peninsula's deserts ranges between arid to hyperarid with hot dry climate, scarce precipitation and sparse vegetation. These harsh environmental conditions enhance some geomorphologic processes more than others, cause specific geotechnical problems, and increase desertification.From west to east, the general physiography of Saudi Arabia shows the Red Sea coastal plains and the escarpment foothills called Tihama followed by the Arabian Shield mountains, the Arabian Shelf plateau and finally the Arabian Gulf coastal plains. Sand moves by wind either as drifting sand or migrating dunes in four major sand seas, over the Arabian Shelf, and in the inter-mountain valleys, in the Arabian Shield causing problems of erosion and deposition. Human activities in the deserts may cause more instability to the sand bodies, enlarging the magnitude of the problem. Fine silty soil particles also move by wind, depositing loess mainly in selected areas downwind in the Tihama. These loess deposits subside and may form earth fissures by the process of hydrocompaction upon wetting. The addition of water can be either natural through storms or man-made through human agricultural or civil activities. Extensive sabkhas exist along the coastal plains of both the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf. The sabkha soil may also heave by salt re-crystallization or collapse by wetting. The shallow groundwater brines present in sabkhas also attack and corrode civil structures. Urbanization and excessive groundwater pumping may also deplete the fresh groundwater resources and may cause subsidence, ground fissuring and surface faulting as observed in some locations in the Arabian Shield. Although the average annual precipitation is very low, rain usually falls in the form of torrential storms, collected by dry valley basins and causing floods to unprotected downstream areas on the coastal plains of the Red Sea.The desert environment, being a fragile echo system, needs to be treated with care. Intercommunications between different national and international agencies and education of the layman should help to keep the system balanced and reduce the resulting environmental hazards. In addition, any suggested remedial measures should be planned with nature and engineered with natural materials.     

Flood Management in India

In this paper, flood problems in India, regional variabilityof the problem, present status of the ongoing management measures, their effectiveness and futureneeds in flood management are covered. Flood problems in India are presented by four zonesof flooding, viz. (a) Brahmaputra River Basin, (b) Ganga River Basin, (c) North-WestRivers Basin, and (d) Central India and Deccan Rivers Basin. Some special problems,related to floods like dam break flow, and water logging in Tal areas, are also mentioned.Progress of various flood management measures, both structural and non-structural, arediscussed. In addition, future needs to achieve efficient and successful flood managementmeasures in India are also pointed out.     

河南省内黄县河流地质考古研究

河流地质考古学是基于地层研究河流和考古遗址之间关系的学科。近年来我们在河南省内黄县开展的河流地质考古研究揭示了黄河复杂的演化历史,在此基础上进一步探讨了古代人类活动与周围环境的相互作用。本文主要介绍了2010~2016年我们在河南省内黄县3个全新世遗址（岸上、三杨庄和大张龙村）的地质考古工作中所取得的成果。研究区域内遗址的地层记录表明,许多考古遗址被深埋于地下,并可能影响了3000 a B.P.以来的河流沉积过程。我们在岸上遗址发掘了A、B、C、D共4处青铜时代的沟渠遗迹,这些沟渠的堆筑可能影响了后期的沉积过程并导致了遗址周边微地貌的改变;在三杨庄遗址识别出了多层不同时期的人为古土壤,包括新石器晚期、战国时期、汉代和唐代;在大张龙村发现了北宋时期黄河泛滥沉积物,其沉积过程可能受周边村落遗址的影响。根据测得的14C年代和沉积层厚度,本研究进一步对这3处遗址的沉积速率进行了估算,并与前人对华北平原沉积速率的相关研究进行了对比。结果表明,这3处遗址所显示的沉积速率自3000 a B.P.开始显著增加,与对早期历史时期黄河河道沉积速率的估算结果相吻合。因此,基于遗址的地质考古研究能够为探索人与环境的互动关系提供大量信息。未来的工作中,我们需要开展更多基于考古遗址的河流地质考古研究,以深入探讨华北平原的自然沉积过程与文明演进过程之间的关系。

     

Urban steeplands in the tropics: an environment of accelerated erosion

The developing countries at present have a high urban growth rate that is likely to continue for at least another quarter-century. In addition, many of these urban centres are located in the Neogene plate boundary zones and are subject to multiple earthquake and volcanic hazards. Slope failures and accelerated surface and channel erosion are particularly severe in cities near active plate margins, and in areas affected also by tropical cyclones. We discuss two extreme cases: Singapore and Kingston (Jamaica). Singapore is located in a stable environment and the urbanization related problems of flood and slope instability have been reduced by proper building and drainage practices at a considerable cost. In Kingston, the external disturbances are repetitive, large-scale, and very difficult to control. The fast-growing cities in the tropics need to be carefully monitored, especially when located in an unstable physical environment. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.