The morphometric and stratigraphic framework for estimates of debris flow incidence in the North Cascades foothills, Washington State, USA

Active debris flow fans in the North Cascade Foothills of Washington State constitute a natural hazard of importance to land managers, private property owners and personal security. In the absence of measurements of the sediment fluxes involved in debris flow events, a morphological-evolutionary systems approach, emphasizing stratigraphy, dating, fan morphology and debris flow basin morphometry, was used. Using the stratigraphic framework and 47 radiocarbon dates, frequency of occurrence and relative magnitudes of debris flow events have been estimated for three spatial scales of debris flow systems: the within-fan site scale (84 observations); the fan meso-scale (six observations) and the lumped fan, regional or macro-scale (one fan average and adjacent lake sediments). In order to characterize the morphometric framework, plots of basin area v. fan area, basin area v. fan gradient and the Melton ruggedness number v. fan gradient for the 12 debris flow basins were compared with those documented for semi-arid and paraglacial fans. Basin area to fan area ratios were generally consistent with the estimated level of debris flow activity during the Holocene as reported below. Terrain analysis of three of the most active debris flow basins revealed the variety of modes of slope failure and sediment production in the region.Micro-scale debris flow event systems indicated a range of recurrence intervals for large debris flows from 106−3645 years. The spatial variation of these rates across the fans was generally consistent with previously mapped hazard zones. At the fan meso-scale, the range of recurrence intervals for large debris flows was 273−1566 years and at the regional scale, the estimated recurrence interval of large debris flows was 874 years (with undetermined error bands) during the past 7290 years. Dated lake sediments from the adjacent Lake Whatcom gave recurrence intervals for large sediment producing events ranging from 481−557 years over the past 3900 years and clearly discernible sedimentation events in the lacustrine sediments had a recurrence interval of 67−78 years over that same period.     

SNOWSHED CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE NOOKSACK RIVER WATERSHED,NORTH CASCADES RANGE,WASHINGTON*

ABSTRACT. Meltwater contributes to watershed hydrology by increasing summer discharge, delaying the peak spring runoff, and decreasing variability in runoff. High‐elevation snowshed meltwater, including glacier‐derived input, provides an estimated 26.9 percent of summer streamflow (ranging annually from 16 to 40 percent) in the Nooksack River Basin above the town of Deming, Washington, in the North Cascades Range. The Nooksack is a major spawning river for salmon and once was important for commercial, recreational, and tribal fishing, and in the past its flow met the demands of both human and aquatic ecosystems. But the river is already legally overallocated, and demand is rising in response to the rapidly growing human population. Variability in snowshed contributions to the watershed is considerable but has increased from an average of 25.2 percent in the 1940s to an average of 30.8 percent in the 1990s. Overall stream discharge shows no significant increase, suggesting that the glaciers are melting, and/or precipitation levels (or other hydrologic factors) are decreasing at about the same rate. If glaciers continue to recede, they may disappear permanently from the Cascades. If that occurs, their summer contribution to surface‐water supplies will cease, and water‐management policies will need drastic revision.     

The remarkable wide range spatial scaling of TRMM precipitation

The advent of space borne precipitation radar has opened up the possibility of studying the variability of global precipitation over huge ranges of scale while avoiding many of the calibration and sparse network problems which plague ground based rain gage and radar networks. We studied 1176 consecutive orbits of attenuation-corrected near surface reflectivity measurements from the TRMM satellite PR instrument. We find that for well-measured statistical moments (orders 0 < q < 2) corresponding to radar reflectivities with dBZ < 57 and probabilities > 10^− 6, that the residuals with respect to a pure scaling (power law) variability are remarkably low: ± 6.4% over the range 20,000 km down to 4.3 km. We argue that higher order moments are biased due to inadequately corrected attenuation effects. When a stochastic three — parameter universal multifractal cascade model is used to model both the reflectivity and the minimum detectable signal of the radar (which was about twice the mean), we find that we can explain the same statistics to within ± 4.6% over the same range. The effective outer scale of the variability was found to be 32,000 ± 2000 km. The fact that this is somewhat larger than the planetary scale (20,000 km) is a consequence of the residual variability of precipitation at the planetary scales. With the help of numerical simulations we were able to estimate the three fundamental parameters as α ≈ 1.5, C₁ = 0.63 ± 0.02 and H = 0.00 ± 0.01 (the multifractal index, the codimension of the mean and the nonconservation parameter respectively). There was no error estimate on α since although α = 1.5 was roughly the optimum value, this conclusion depended on assumptions about the instrument at both low and high reflectivities. The value H = 0 means that the reflectivity can be modeled as a pure multiplicative process, i.e. that the reflectivity is conserved from scale to scale. We show that by extending the model down to the inner “relaxation scale” where the turbulence and rain decouple (in light rain, typically about 40 cm), that even without an explicit threshold, the model gives quite reasonable predictions about the frequency of occurrence of perceptible precipitation rates.While our basic findings (the scaling, outer scale) are almost exactly as predicted twenty years ago on the basis on ground based radar and the theory of anisotropic (stratified) cascades, they are incompatible with classical turbulence approaches which require at least two isotropic turbulence regimes separated by a meso-scale “gap”. They are also incompatible with classical meteorological phenomenology which identifies morphology with mechanism and breaks up the observed range 4 km–20 000 km into several subranges each dominated by different mechanisms. Finally, since the model specifies the variability over huge ranges, it shows promise for resolving long standing problems in rain measurement from both (typically sparse) rain gage networks and radars.     

Oxygen Isotope Geochemistry of the Lassen Volcanic Center, California: Resolving Crustal and Mantle Contributions to Continental Arc Magmatism

This study reports oxygen isotope ratios determined by laserfluorination of mineral separates (mainly plagioclase) frombasaltic andesitic to rhyolitic composition volcanic rocks eruptedfrom the Lassen Volcanic Center (LVC), northern California.Plagioclase separates from nearly all rocks have ¹⁸O values(6·1–8·4) higher than expected for productionof the magmas by partial melting of little evolved basalticlavas erupted in the arc front and back-arc regions of the southernmostCascades during the late Cenozoic. Most LVC magmas must thereforecontain high ¹⁸O crustal material. In this regard, the ¹⁸O valuesof the volcanic rocks show strong spatial patterns, particularlyfor young rhyodacitic rocks that best represent unmodified partialmelts of the continental crust. Rhyodacitic magmas erupted fromvents located within 3·5 km of the inferred center ofthe LVC have consistently lower ¹⁸O values (average 6·3± 0·1) at given SiO₂ contents relative to rockserupted from distal vents (>7·0 km; average 7·1± 0.1). Further, magmas erupted from vents situated attransitional distances have intermediate values and span a largerrange (average 6·8 ± 0·2). Basaltic andesiticto andesitic composition rocks show similar spatial variations,although as a group the ¹⁸O values of these rocks are more variableand extend to higher values than the rhyodacitic rocks. Thesefeatures are interpreted to reflect assimilation of heterogeneouslower continental crust by mafic magmas, followed by mixingor mingling with silicic magmas formed by partial melting ofinitially high ¹⁸O continental crust (9·0) increasinglyhybridized by lower ¹⁸O (6·0) mantle-derived basalticmagmas toward the center of the system. Mixing calculationsusing estimated endmember source ¹⁸O values imply that LVC magmascontain on a molar oxygen basis approximately 42 to 4% isotopicallyheavy continental crust, with proportions declining in a broadlyregular fashion toward the center of the LVC. Conversely, the¹⁸O values of the rhyodacitic rocks suggest that the continentalcrust in the melt generation zones beneath the LVC has beensubstantially modified by intrusion of mantle-derived basalticmagmas, with the degree of hybridization ranging on a molaroxygen basis from approximately 60% at distances up to 12 kmfrom the center of the system to 97% directly beneath the focusregion. These results demonstrate on a relatively small scalethe strong influence that intrusion of mantle-derived maficmagmas can have on modifying the composition of pre-existingcontinental crust in regions of melt production. Given thisresult, similar, but larger-scale, regional trends in magmacompositions may reflect an analogous but more extensive processwherein the continental crust becomes progressively hybridizedbeneath frontal arc localities as a result of protracted intrusionof subduction-related basaltic magmas. KEY WORDS: oxygen isotopes; phenocrysts; continental arc magmatism; Cascades; Lassen     

THE DENDROCLIMATOLOGICAL POTENTIAL OF AN ALPINE SHRUB,CASSIOPE MERTENSIANA,FROM MOUNT RAINIER,WA, USA

The application of dendrochronological techniques to shrubs found in arctic and alpine plant communities is opening previously untapped regions to the exploration of plant‐climate ecological relationships and climate reconstruction. In this pilot study, we present growth (1963–2004), reproduction (1963–2004), and stable carbon isotope ratio (1975–2004) chronologies for Cassiope mertensiana from a subalpine site in Mount Rainier National Park, Washington, USA. Based on simple linear correlation analysis, positive correlations characterize plant growth and previous year mean maximum temperature in April and June, suggesting the influence of temperature on snowpack and, in turn, on growing season length, plant and soil insulation, and nutrient and moisture availability. Plant growth and reproduction are significantly correlated with current year July mean maximum temperature and total precipitation, indicating the importance of a warm and extended growing season for optimal plant development. Using step‐wise multiple linear regression analysis, we developed a preliminary calibration model for July mean maximum temperature (R = 0.63), extending over the 1974–2004 time period. This archive has the potential to elucidate multi‐scale, spatially‐explicit, ecological and climatic information for alpine ecosystems situated along a north‐south transect from the southern Yukon to the Pacific Northwest of the United States.     

Metamorphism and deformation at different structural levels in a strike-slip fault zone, Ross Lake fault, North Cascades, USA

Continental crust is displaced in strike-slip fault zones through lateral and vertical movement that together drive burial and exhumation. Pressure – temperature–deformation ( P–T–d ) histories of orogenic crust exhumed in transcurrent zones record the mechanisms and conditions of these processes. The Skagit Gneiss Complex, a migmatitic unit of the North Cascades, Washington (USA), was metamorphosed at depths of ∼25–30 km in a continental arc under contraction, and is bounded on its eastern side by the long-lived transcurrent Ross Lake fault zone (RLFZ). The P–T–d conditions recorded by rocks on either side of the RLFZ vary along the length of the fault zone, but most typically the fault separates high-grade gneiss and plutons from lower-grade rocks. The Ruby Mt–Elijah Ridge area at the eastern margin of the Skagit Gneiss exposes tectonic contacts between gneiss and overlying rocks; the latter rocks, including slivers of Methow basin deposits, are metamorphosed and record higher-grade metamorphism than in correlative rocks along strike along the RLFZ. In this area, the Skagit Gneiss and overlying units all yield maximum P–T conditions of 8–10 kbar at >650 °C, indicating that slices of basin rocks were buried to similar mid-crustal depths as the gneiss. After exhumation of fault zone rocks to <15 km depth, intrusion of granitoid plutons drove contact metamorphism, resulting in texturally late andalusite–cordierite in garnet schist. In the Elijah Ridge area of the RLFZ, an overlapping step-over or series of step-overs that evolved through time may have facilitated burial and exhumation of a deep slice of the Methow basin, indicating that strike-slip faults can have major vertical displacement (tens of kilometres) that is significant during the crustal thickening and exhumation stages of orogeny.     

High-pressure metamorphism in the Western Cordillera of North America

The Skagit Gneiss, a major component of the crystalline core of the North Cascades, was metamorphosed during a mid-Cretaceous(?) to early Tertiary high-P event driven by the collision of the Insular and Intermontane superterranes. Maximum pressures recorded by metapelitic rocks are 8–10 kbar at 650–725° C. High pressures are also indicated by coexisting staurolite and hornblende in amphibolites in the Skagit Gneiss and adjacent Cascade River Schist. Mineral reactions continued during nearly isothermal decompression from 8–10 kbar to c. 3–5 kbar. Early high-P minerals (e.g. kyanite) are present as armoured relics in garnet in gneisses that contain sillimanite and cordierite in the groundmass. Skeletal relics of kyanite are also present in the groundmass of lower-grade, staurolite-bearing schists that contain texturally later cordierite. This matrix kyanite may have been preserved as a result of rapid uplift following initial decompression at high temperature. These results represent a revision of the metamorphic history of the Skagit Gneiss, which was formerly thought to have experienced only relatively low-P Barrovian metamorphism. Qualitative estimates of metamorphic conditions based on stable matrix mineral assemblages result in an underestimation of maximum pressures because mineral reactions continued during decompression. Geobarometric results for the Skagit Gneiss are interpreted as evidence for major crustal thickening in the North Cascades. Recognition that pressures of c. 9 kbar were attained supports a contractional model for North Cascades orogenesis and requires that tectonic syntheses account for the burial of the Skagit Gneiss protoliths to a depth of c. 25–30 km.     

Hydrogeologic controls on streamflow sensitivity to climate variation

Climate models project warmer temperatures for the north‐west USA, which will result in reduced snowpacks and decreased summer streamflow. This paper examines how groundwater, snowmelt, and regional climate patterns control discharge at multiple time scales, using historical records from two watersheds with contrasting geological properties and drainage efficiencies. In the groundwater‐dominated watershed, aquifer storage and the associated slow summer recession are responsible for sustaining discharge even when the seasonal or annual water balance is negative, while in the runoff‐dominated watershed subsurface storage is exhausted every summer. There is a significant 1 year cross‐correlation between precipitation and discharge in the groundwater‐dominated watershed (r = 0·52), but climatic factors override geology in controlling the inter‐annual variability of streamflow. Warmer winters and earlier snowmelt over the past 60 years have shifted the hydrograph, resulting in summer recessions lasting 17 days longer, August discharges declining 15%, and autumn minimum discharges declining 11%. The slow recession of groundwater‐dominated streams makes them more sensitive than runoff‐dominated streams to changes in snowmelt amount and timing. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Metamorphism of the deepest exposed arc rocks in the Cretaceous to Paleogene Cascades belt, Washington: evidence for large-scale vertical motion in a continental arc

The Swakane Gneiss and the overlying Napeequa Complex in the North Cascade range, Washington, were metamorphosed and deformed during development of a Cretaceous‐Paleogene continental arc, and are among the structurally deepest exposed rocks within the Cordilleran arcs of North America. Peak metamorphic conditions in both the Swakane Gneiss and Napeequa Complex were c. 640–750 °C, 9–12 kbar. Clockwise paths and widespread evidence for high‐P metamorphism in meta‐supracrustal rocks (burial to >40 km) document major vertical tectonic motion during arc construction and unroofing. These and other moderately high‐pressure rocks in the North Cascades‐Coast Mountains experienced a dramatically different tectonometamorphic history than metamorphic rocks within other Cordilleran arcs. The exhumed arc complexes of the Sierra Nevada and Peninsular Ranges are dominated by relatively low‐P metamorphic and plutonic rocks (typically <6 kbar). There is no evidence that the northern Cordillera was thickened to a greater degree than these other belts, suggesting that the greater magnitude of vertical motion in the Cascades may have been related to exhumation mechanisms: Eocene extension in the northern Cordillera vs. erosional unroofing in the central and southern Cordillera.