Understanding climate coping as a basis for strategic climate change adaptation – The case of Queenstown-Lake Wanaka,New Zealand

Weather conditions that influence natural resource-based tourist destinations are likely to be affected by climate change, but our understanding of how businesses and destinations manage for present and future conditions is limited. In this study we report on the relationships between weather and tourism activities in the Queenstown-Lake Wanaka region, South Island, New Zealand. Key stakeholder interviews and a workshop form the empirical basis of this paper. Coping range application ideas derived from ecological management literature are used to develop a framework to understand and inform thinking and strategies around how tourism businesses and destinations are currently responding to the weather and perhaps could in future respond to climate change. Results show that within a destination individual businesses have widely varying relationships with the weather, with each type of activity operating within its own coping range to particular environmental gradients, for example temperature. Coping, which can be observed outside the ‘ideal’ range of a particular environmental gradient, requires business adjustments so as to cope with increasingly marginal conditions, up to a Critical Stop Point – the ultimate threshold. The data suggest that increased need for adjustments impacts on business viability, and more planned adaptation measures would be necessary to increase viability under increasingly detrimental climatic conditions. Discussion at a destination level workshop indicates that at and beyond thresholds, keystone industry and destination level strategic adaptation planning is required to ensure the viability of the destination as a whole.     

Differentiating capacities as a means to sustainable climate change adaptation

There are two forms of capacity to adapt to global change: those associated with fundamental human development goals (generic capacity), and those necessary for managing and reducing specific climatic threats (specific). We argue that these two domains of capacity must be addressed explicitly, simultaneously and iteratively if climate change adaptation and sustainable development goals are to be attained. We propose a simple heuristic to understand the four main ways these two capacities interact, leading to more or less desirable outcomes. Drawing from three case studies of agricultural adaptation to climatic risk (Phoenix, AZ; Northeast Brazil; Chiapas, Mexico) we argue that the institutional context of adaptation can implicitly or explicitly undermine one form of capacity with repercussions for the development of the other. A better and more strategic balance of generic and specific capacities is needed if the promised synergies between sustainable development and adaptation are to be achieved.     

Numerical study of the 3D failure envelope of a single pile in sand

The paper presents a comprehensive study of the failure envelope (or capacity diagram) of a single elastic pile in sand. The behavior of a pile subjected to different load combinations is simulated using a large number of finite element numerical calculations. The sand is modeled using a constitutive law based on hypoplasticity. In order to find the failure envelope in the three-dimensional space (i.e. horizontal force H, bending moment M and vertical force V), the radial displacement method and swipe tests are numerically performed. It is found that with increasing vertical load the horizontal bearing capacity of the pile decreases. Furthermore, the presence of bending moment on the pile head significantly influences the horizontal bearing capacity and the capacity diagram in the H–M plane manifests an inclined elliptical shape. An analytical equation providing good agreement with the 3D numerical results is finally proposed. The formula is useful for design purposes and the development of simplified modeling numerical strategies such as macro-element.     

Towards identifying sources of subsurface flow: A comparison of components identified by a physically based runoff model and those determined by chemical mixing techniques

A physically-based semidistributed model, TOPMODEL, is applied to a 340 hectare spruce forested catchment in mid-Wales. the model is calibrated to runoff and the subsurface flow is divided into components of flow identified by depth of origin. in addition, chemical mixing techniques are used to provide a hydrograph separation between acidic soil waters and well buffered deep waters. the short-term variations in the components of flow identified by these two approaches compare well.     

GEOCAB Portal: A gateway for discovering and accessing capacity building resources in Earth Observation

The discovery of and access to capacity building resources are often essential to conduct environmental projects based on Earth Observation (EO) resources, whether they are Earth Observation products, methodological tools, techniques, organizations that impart training in these techniques or even projects that have shown practical achievements. Recognizing this opportunity and need, the European Commission through two FP7 projects jointly with the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) teamed up with the Committee on Earth observation Satellites (CEOS). The Global Earth Observation CApacity Building (GEOCAB) portal aims at compiling all current capacity building efforts on the use of EO data for societal benefits into an easily updateable and user-friendly portal. GEOCAB offers a faceted search to improve user discovery experience with a fully interactive world map with all inventoried projects and activities. This paper focuses on the conceptual framework used to implement the underlying platform. An ISO19115 metadata model associated with a terminological repository are the core elements that provide a semantic search application and an interoperable discovery service. The organization and the contribution of different user communities to ensure the management and the update of the content of GEOCAB are addressed.     

建设韧性城乡的技术途径

中国地震多发、灾害严重,迫切需要提升抗震能力,实现韧性城乡的建设。本文围绕建设韧性城乡的技术途径,梳理了工程抗震技术发展的历史沿革,阐述了韧性城乡的提出背景。基于震害类比、实验验证和理论分析,总结提炼工程结构抗震能力“散”、“脆、”偏、“单”评估法,指出应以“整而不散”、“延而不脆”、“匀而不偏”、“冗而不单”的传统抗震技术及隔震与消能减震新技术作为实现韧性城乡的技术途径。     

Behavior of drag anchor in clay with linearly increasing shear strength under unidirectional and combined loading

Drag anchor is a widely used economical anchor option for offshore floating structures. The anchor behavior under unidirectional loading and combined loading is important for anchor selection. The anchor behavior under combined loading, characterized by the yield envelope, can also be used for the prediction of anchor installation, which is still an issue in anchor design. However, most existing studies on anchor capacity are for plate anchors which focused only on the anchor pullout capacity in soil with uniform shear strength. The behavior of drag anchor under unidirectional and combined loading in soil with linearly increasing shear strength profile is seldom investigated. The current 2D finite element studies investigate the anchor behavior for a horizontal anchor fluke in clay with linearly increasing shear strength under unidirectional vertical, horizontal and rotational loadings first. Then based on the results of anchor unidirectional loading behavior, the yield envelopes for anchor under combined loading for both shallow and deep embedded flukes are studied. The effect of anchor embedment depth, soil non- homogeneity, soil overburden pressure and the soil/anchor interface breakaway conditions are studied to provide insight for drag anchor design.     

Evaluation of the real-time TRMM-based multi-satellite precipitation analysis for an operational flood prediction system in Nzoia Basin,Lake Victoria,Africa

Many researchers seek to take advantage of the recently available and virtually uninterrupted supply of satellite-based rainfall information as an alternative and supplement to the ground-based observations in order to implement a cost-effective flood prediction in many under-gauged regions around the world. Recently, NASA Applied Science Program has partnered with USAID and African-RCMRD to implement an operational water-hazard warning system, SERVIR-Africa. The ultimate goal of the project is to build up disaster management capacity in East Africa by providing local governmental officials and international aid organizations a practical decision-support tool in order to better assess emerging flood impacts and to quantify spatial extent of flood risk, as well as to respond to such flood emergencies more expediently. The objective of this article is to evaluate the applicability of integrating NASA’s standard satellite precipitation product with a flood prediction model for disaster management in Nzoia, sub-basin of Lake Victoria, Africa. This research first evaluated the TMPA real-time rainfall data against gauged rainfall data from the year 2002 through 2006. Then, the gridded Xinanjiang Model was calibrated to Nzoia basin for period of 1985–2006. Benchmark streamflow simulations were produced with the calibrated hydrological model using the rain gauge and observed streamflow data. Afterward, continuous discharge predictions forced by TMPA 3B42RT real-time data from 2002 through 2006 were simulated, and acceptable results were obtained in comparison with the benchmark performance according to the designated statistic indices such as bias ratio (20%) and NSCE (0.67). Moreover, it is identified that the flood prediction results were improved with systematically bias-corrected TMPA rainfall data with less bias (3.6%) and higher NSCE (0.71). Although the results justify to suggest to us that TMPA real-time data can be acceptably used to drive hydrological models for flood prediction purpose in Nzoia basin, continuous progress in space-borne rainfall estimation technology toward higher accuracy and higher spatial resolution is highly appreciated. Finally, it is also highly recommended that to increase flood forecasting lead time, more reliable and more accurate short- or medium-range quantitative precipitation forecasts is a must.     

Everyday Adaptation: Theorizing climate change adaptation in daily life

Climate science to date demonstrates that natural and human systems must urgently adapt. Adaptation refers to changes in societies and ecological systems as they respond to both actual and anticipated impacts of the changing climate. While adaptation is not limited to the level of planning and policy, existing adaptation practice privileges institutional action. We argue that the definition of adaptation should be broadened to include the small, incremental changes made in our daily lives to accommodate the shifting ecologies in which we live. Drawing on critical adaptation research and our own ethnographic fieldwork in the Global South, we define everyday adaptation as the shifted ways a person works, eats, lives and thinks in response to climate realities, rather than the hardening of coastlines or the relocation of vulnerable structures. We integrate and build on existing scholarship on adaptation and the everyday to theorize the logics of everyday, hyperlocal adaptation. This hyperlocal scale is a critical component of any definition of adaptation and a useful lens for studying the way much of the global population adapts and will continue to adapt their lives to climate change. We offer two theoretical components of adaptation revealed by the everyday - adaptation labor and value adaptation – as lenses to see changes in everyday action. Through considering hyperlocal action, we then identify and explore four logics of everyday adaptation actions: lifestyle stability, socio-ecological reactivity, livelihood flexibility, and community capacity. Everyday adaptations are limited by individuals’ capacity to adapt and thereby determine the longevity, livability, and quality of life of places on the frontlines of climate change. We argue for understanding the aggregate effects of everyday adaptation in order to better align the actions of those living with climate change in their everyday lives and the large-scale adaptation projects aiming to protect them.     

Optimization and capacity expansion of a water distribution system

This paper develops an iterative procedure for capacity expansion studies for water distribution systems. We propose a methodology to analyze an existing water distribution system and identify the potential bottlenecks in the system. Based on the results, capacity expansion alternatives are proposed and evaluated for improving the efficiency of water supply. The methodology includes a network flow based optimization model, four evaluation indices, and a series of evaluation steps. We first use a directed graph to configure the water distribution system into a network. The network flow based model optimizes the water distribution in the system so that different expansion alternatives can be evaluated on a comparable basis. This model lends itself to linear programming (LP) and can be easily solved by a standard LP code. The results from the evaluation tool help to identify the bottlenecks in the water distribution system and provide capacity expansion alternatives. A useful complementary tool for decision making is composed of a series of evaluation steps with the bottleneck findings, capacity expansion alternatives, and the evaluation of results. We apply the proposed methodology to the Tou-Qian River Basin, located in the northern region of Taiwan, to demonstrate its applicability in optimization and capacity expansion studies.