Local sea level change scenarios for the end of the 21st century and potential physical impacts in the lower Ria de Aveiro (Portugal)

Sea level change is an important consequence of climate change due to its impact on society and ecosystems. Analyses of tide-gauge data have indicated that the global sea level has risen during the 20th century and several studies predict that the mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century, intensifying coastal hazards worldwide. In Portugal, the Ria de Aveiro is expected to be one of the regions most affected by sea level change.The main aim of this study is to evaluate the potential impacts of the mean sea level change on the hydrodynamics and morphodynamics of the Ria de Aveiro. With this purpose, local mean sea level change was projected for the period 2091-2100 relative to 1980-1999, for different Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These projections revealed an increase in the mean sea level between 0.28 m under scenario B1 and 0.42 m under scenario A2.The results obtained for sea level rise scenario A2 projection were used to force the morphodynamic model MORSYS2D, previously implemented for the Ria de Aveiro. The modelling results were compared with model forecasts for the present sea level. The residual sediment transport and its balance at the lagoon inlet were computed and analysed for both situations. While the residual sediment transport is generally seaward, sediments tend to deposit inside the inlet due to the weak sediment transport at its mouth. The direction of the residual flux will not change with the sea level rise, but sediment fluxes will intensify, and accretion inside the inlet will increase.The rise in mean sea level will also affect the lagoon hydrodynamics. The tidal prism at the lagoon mouth will increase by about 28% in spring tide. In the lower lagoon only a slight increase of the tidal asymmetry is predicted.     

An Exploration of the Interplay between the Measurement Uncertainty and the Number of Samples in Contaminated Land Investigations

In the assessment of potentially contaminated land, the number of samples and the uncertainty of the measurements (including that from sampling) are both important factors in the planning and implementation of an investigation. Both parameters also effect the interpretation of the measurements produced, and the process of making decisions based upon those measurements. However, despite their importance, previously there has been no method for assessing if an investigation is fit‐for‐purpose with respect to both of these parameters. The Whole Site Optimised Contaminated Land Investigation (WSOCLI) method has been developed to address this issue, and to allow the optimisation of an investigation with respect to both the number of samples and the measurement uncertainty, using an economic loss function. This function was developed to calculate an ‘expectation of (financial) loss’, incorporating costs of the investigation itself, subsequent land remediation, and potential consequential costs. To allow the evaluation of the WSOCLI method a computer program ‘OCLISIM’ has been developed to produce sample data from simulated contaminated land investigations. One advantage of such an approach is that as the ‘true’ contaminant concentrations are created by the program, these values are known, which is not the case in a real contaminated land investigation. This enables direct comparisons between functions of the ‘true’ concentrations and functions of the simulated measurements. A second advantage of simulation for this purpose is that the WSOCLI method can be tested on many different patterns and intensities of contamination. The WSOCLI method performed particularly well at high sampling densities producing expectations of financial loss that approximated to the true costs, which were also calculated by the program. WSOCLI was shown to produce notable trends in the relationship between the overall cost (i.e., expectation of loss) and both the number of samples and the measurement uncertainty, which are: (a) low measurement uncertainty was optimal when the decision threshold was between the mean background and the mean hot spot concentrations. (b) When the hot spot mean concentration is equal to or near the decision threshold, then mid‐range measurement uncertainties were optimal. (c) When the decision threshold exceeds the mean of the hot spot, mid‐range measurement uncertainties were optimal. The trends indicate that the uncertainty may continue to rise if the difference between hot spot mean and the decision threshold increases further. (d) In any of the above scenarios, the optimal measurement uncertainty was lower if there is a large geochemical variance (i.e., heterogeneity) within the hot spot. (e) The optimal number of samples for each scenario was indicated by the WSOCLI method, and was between 50 and 100 for the scenarios considered generally; although there was significant noise in the predictions, which needs to be addressed in future work to allow such conclusions to be clearer.     

In Situ Determination of First‐Row Transition Metal,Ga and Ge Abundances in Geological Materials via Medium‐Resolution LA‐ICP‐MS

An in situ, medium‐resolution LA‐ICP‐MS method was developed to measure the abundances of the first‐row transition metals, Ga and Ge in a suite of geological materials, namely the MPI‐DING reference glasses. The analytical protocol established here hinged on maximising the ablation rate of the ultraviolet (UV) laser system and the sensitivity of the ICP‐MS, as well minimising the production of diatomic oxides and argides, which serve as the dominant sources of isobaric interferences. Non‐spectral matrix effects were accounted for by using multiple external calibrators, including NIST SRM 610 and the USGS basaltic glasses BHVO‐2G, BIR‐1G and BCR‐2G, and utilising ⁴³Ca as an internal standard. Analyses of the MPI‐DING reference glasses, which represent geological matrices ranging from basaltic to rhyolitic in composition, included measurements of concentrations as low as < 10⁰ μg g^?1 and as high as > 10⁴ μg g^?1. The new data reported here were found to statistically correlate with the ‘preferred’ reference values for these materials at the 95% confidence level, though with significantly better precision, typically on the order of ≤ 3% (2s_m). This analytical method may be extended to any matrix‐matched geological sample, particularly oceanic basalts, silicate minerals and meteoritic materials.     

Modelling Short‐Scale Variability and Uncertainty During Mineral Resource Estimation Using a Novel Fuzzy Estimation Technique

For mineral resource assessment, techniques based on fuzzy logic are attractive because they are capable of incorporating uncertainty associated with measured variables and can also quantify the uncertainty of the estimated grade, tonnage etc. The fuzzy grade estimation model is independent of the distribution of data, avoiding assumptions and constraints made during advanced geostatistical simulation, e.g., the turning bands method. Initially, fuzzy modelling classifies the data using all the component variables in the data set. We adopt a novel approach by taking into account the spatial irregularity of mineralisation patterns using the Gustafson–Kessel classification algorithm. The uncertainty at the point of estimation was derived through antecedent memberships in the input space (i.e., spatial coordinates) and transformed onto the output space (i.e., grades) through consequent membership at the point of estimation. Rather than probabilistic confidence intervals, this uncertainty was expressed in terms of fuzzy memberships, which indicated the occurrence of mixtures of different mineralogical phases at the point of estimation. Data from different sources (other than grades) could also be utilised during estimation. Application of the proposed technique on a real data set gave results that were comparable to those obtained from a turning bands simulation.     

Origin of resources and trophic pathways in a large SW Atlantic estuary: An evaluation using stable isotopes

The Río de la Plata (34° 36′ S, 55° 58′ W; Argentina and Uruguay) estuary, one of the most important South American estuarine environments, is characterized by weak seasonal freshwater discharge, low tidal amplitude (<1 m), a wide and permanent connection to the sea, and a salt-wedge regime. Using stable isotope analysis, we explored the relative importance of the different sources of primary production in the food web. Our results show that phytoplankton and macrodetritus from terrestrial salt and freshwater marshes both contribute to the food web of the Río de la Plata estuary. On the basis of the sampled species, we identified four trophic levels. The clam Mactra isabelleana, the calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa, and the opossum shrimp Neomysis americana are the primary consumers. The rays Atlantoraja castelnaui and Squatina guggenheim and the shark Galeorhinus galeus are the top predators. The Río de la Plata food web shows an important input of nutrients derived from phytoplankton. Rays, sharks, and predatory gastropods reveal an important contribution of C4 plants (likely Spartina spp.). However, production derived from C3 plants is also important for some species. The fishes Brazilian menhaden, Brevoortia aurea; the stripped weakfish Cynoscion guatucupa; and the whitemouth croaker, Micropogonias furnieri, showed differences in their isotopic signatures as juveniles and adults, indicating different food sources, and they were therefore treated as different components of the food web. Our data suggest that detritus from salt and freshwater marshes is reaching the Río de la Plata estuary and can be an important allocthonous source of energy to this environment.     

Small-scale ductile shear zones as transposed rheologically weak domains: A numerical modeling investigation and practical application

We test the hypothesis that small ductile shear zones are developed from initial rheologically weak domains. We regard weak domains as ellipsoidal inhomogeneities and apply Eshelby's formalism extended for power-law viscous materials to investigate the kinematics and finite strain evolution of the partitioned flow fields in weak domains. We show that, under an imposed bulk flow field, weak domains, regardless of their initial shapes and orientations, deform into zone-like features at relatively small bulk strains and the deformation paths inside weak domains have all characteristics expected in ductile shear zones. We apply our model to the Cap de Creus area Spain, where abundant small ductile shear zones exist. To relate the fabrics inside these shear zones with the regional deformation, we take a multi-scale approach. We assume that the area contained many weak domains which were randomly shaped and oriented initially and were deformed into shear zones eventually in response to the regional flow. We constrain the regional flow field by the fabric patterns across the area and compute numerically the partitioned flow fields in individual weak domains. The latter are related to fabrics inside shear zones. Our model reproduces first-order features of field-observed fabrics. Although the deformation path of each shear zone was close to simple shearing, the deformation of the whole belt was not. Our approach also resolves the strain compatibility problem for a finite-sized shear zone embedded in a far less deformed country rock.     

Comparative phylogeography of African rain forest trees: A review of genetic signatures of vegetation history in the Guineo-Congolian region

The biogeographic history of the African rain forests has been contentious. Phylogeography, the study of the geographic distribution of genetic lineages within species, can highlight the signatures of historical events affecting the demography and distribution of species (i.e. population fragmentation or size changes, range expansion/contraction) and, thereby, the ecosystems they belong to. The accumulation of recent data for African rain forests now enables a first biogeographic synthesis for the region. In this review, we explain which phylogeographic patterns are expected under different scenarios of past demographic change, and we give an overview of the patterns detected in African rain forest trees to discuss whether they support alternative hypotheses regarding the history of the African rain forest cover. The major genetic discontinuities in the region support the role of refugia during climatic oscillations, though not necessarily following the classically proposed scenarios. We identify in particular a genetic split between the North and the South of the Lower Guinean region. Finally we provide some perspectives for future study.     

Provisional Elemental Values for IAEA‐Sewage Sludge by Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) organised a proficiency test (PT), IAEA‐CU‐2010‐02, for the determination of elements in sewage sludge. The PT sample was analysed by semi‐absolute standardless k₀‐instrumental neutron activation analysis (k₀‐INAA). Results for seven elements (As, Co, Cr, Fe, Hg, Se, Zn) were submitted to the IAEA by our laboratory. All of our results were scored ‘acceptable’ by the ‘result evaluation criteria’ adopted by the IAEA. The same analytical methodology produced quantitative results for twenty‐six additional elements. In total, thirty‐six elements were determined with uncertainty varying from 4 to 11%. This paper presents the provisional mass fractions of twenty‐six additional elements (Ag, Al, Br, Ca, Ce, Cl, Dy, Eu, Ga, Hf, I, K, La, Mg, Mn, Na, Rb, Sb, Sc, Sm, Ta, Tb, Th, V, U, W) not reported by the IAEA. The analytical methodology was discussed with important sources of spectral, nuclear and fission‐product interferences. It was shown that the important components of uncertainties were the k₀ factor, Q₀ factor, detector efficiency, mass and counting statistics. The methodology was validated by analysing the IAEA‐S7 reference material.     

An Optimised 1,10‐Phenanthroline Method for the Determination of Ferrous and Ferric Oxides in Silicate Rocks,Soils and Minerals

A precise, accurate and rapid method for the sequential determination of FeO and Fe₂O₃ in rocks, soils and some non‐refractory minerals by 1,10‐phenanthroline spectrophotometry is described. Fe(II) and Fe(III) were leached from the sample (?200 mesh) using a mixture of NH₄HF₂ and H₂SO₄ at 40–80 °C for 10 min on a hot plate. Both Fe(II) and Fe(III) could be conveniently estimated sequentially from the same reaction mixture at the μg g^?1 to percentage level. The method is better than the existing wet chemical methods, including the commonly used Pratt's titrimetric redox method, for Fe(II) and Fe(III) determinations in rock and soil samples in terms of precision, accuracy and rapidity. The throughput of the method was very high; at least forty to fifty samples could be estimated easily in a day. The results obtained compare favourably with those obtained by Pratt's method, as well as for certified/recommended values of a set of eleven certified reference materials having FeO and Fe₂O₃ contents in the range 0.21–14.63% and 0.58–8.48%, respectively. The optimised 1,10 phenanthroline method was found to be accurate to within 0.21% m/m FeO and 0.30% m/m Fe₂O₃ compared with the literature values of the certified reference materials studied.