我国5月降水的气候特点和长期变化

从月尺度降水长期预报业务的需要出发，根据中央气象台长期科１６０站月降水资料，分析了中国５月份降水的基本气候特点和长期变化，进一步明确了５月份降水预报业务的工作重点，揭示出某些对５月份降水预报业务有价值的气候现象，其中５月份南北方降水长期变化的阶段性及其反位相振荡现象（ＳＮ现象）对５月份降水长期预报业务具有重要实践意义。     

近百年长江中游旱涝的变化

利用史料和器测雨量记录重建的近百年长江中游区域平均逐年旱涝等级指数序列研究了旱涝变化特征，发现：（１）２０世纪前涝后旱，（２）２２年、５－６年和２－３年的准周期振动，（３）６个交替出现的旱涝阶段。     

用CEOF分析近百年中国东部旱涝的分布及其年际变化特征

通过1850～1991年旱涝百分率的CEOF分析，研究了近百年来中国东部旱涝的分布特征、时空变化特点及年际演变规律。结果表明，我国东部主要有三种旱涝分布类型。第一种类型是以长江流域为中心全国大范围旱或涝，空间位相近似相同，且有10.7年和3.1年周期性变化，振幅强度在1923～1924年间曾发生过增强突变。第二种类型为南北旱涝趋势相反的分布，空间位相自北向南变化显著，且有4.3年周期性变化，振幅强度在1884～1885年间曾有一次减弱突变。第三种类型呈江淮流域与华北和华南旱涝趋势相反的分布，空间位相从南北两个方向向中间或相反方向移动，并有3.4年周期性变化，振幅强度在1911～1912年有过增强突变。     

Autoxidation of N(III), S(IV), and other Species in Frozen Solution – A Possible Pathway for Enhanced Chemical Transformation in Freezing Systems

The chemistry of glycolaldehyde (hydroxyacetaldehyde) relevant to the troposphere has been investigated using UV absorption spectrometry and FTIR absorption spectrometry in an environmental chamber. Quantitative UV absorption spectra have been obtained for the first time. The UV spectrum peaks at 277 nm with a maximum cross section of (5.5± 0.7)×10^–20 cm² molecule^–1. Studies of the ultraviolet photolysis of glycolaldehyde ( = 285 ± 25 nm) indicated that the overall quantum yield is > 0.5 in one bar of air, with the major products being CH₂OH and HCO radicals. Rate coefficients for the reactions of Cl atoms and OH radicals with glycolaldehyde have been determined to be (7.6± 1.5)×10^–11 and (1.1± 0.3)×10^–11 cm³ molecule^–1 s^–1, respectively, in good agreement with the only previous study. The lifetime of glycolaldehyde in the atmosphere is about 1.0 day for reaction with OH, and > 2.5 days for photolysis, although both wet and dry deposition should also be considered in future modeling studies.     

Direct and Indirect pCO2 Measurements in a Wide Range of pCO2 and Salinity Values (The Scheldt Estuary)

Recent improvements in both Infra-red spectroscopy and equilibrator techniqueshave allowed to determine, for the first time, pCO₂using simultaneously and continuously both the direct and indirect methods in an estuary where pCO₂ values range from 500 to 8500 atm and salinity from 0 to 30. Our results show that both methods are in excellent agreement in the wholeestuary (r² = 0.999, n = 1075, p < 0.0001). Thus, the NBS (US National Bureau of Standards) scale, although inadequate for seawater samples, is appropriate for estuarine waters and can be applied with confidence to calculate pCO₂.     

Chironomids as indicators of climate change: a 100‐lake training set from a subarctic region of northern Sweden (Lapland)

Multivariate numerical analyses (DCA, CCA) were used to study the distribution of chironomids from surface sediments of 100 lakes spanning broad ecoclimatic conditions in northern Swedish Lapland. The study sites range from boreal forest to alpine tundra and are located in a region of relatively low human impact. Of the 19 environmental variables measured, ordination by CCA identified mean July air temperature as one of the most significant variables explaining the distribution and the abundance of chironomids. Lossonignition (LOI), maximum lake depth and mean January air temperature also accounted for significant variation in chironomid assemblages. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate mean July air temperature from sedimentary chironomid assemblages using weightedaveraging partial least squares regression (WAPLS). The coefficient of determination was relatively high (r² = 0.65) with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on jack-knifing) of 1.13 °C and maximum bias of 2.1 °C, indicating that chironomids can provide useful quantitative estimates of past changes in mean July air temperature. The paper focuses mainly on the relationship between chironomid composition and July air temperature, but the relationship to LOI and depth are also discussed.     

A study on environmental aridity over northern and southern to Qinling Mountains under climate warming

1 Introduction With progressive researches on global climate change, an integrated study of various disciplines tends to be inevitable. Mr. Moore III, chairman of IGBP, holds that the key to integration is to synthesize scientific findings so as to get new ideas and to chance cognition up to a new high[1]. Micro-study, rather than macro-study focuses on regional change[2-5]. To strengthen the global perspective in the study, "to research on typical regions and to deepen the regional divide…     

Numerical simulations of katabatic jumps in coats land,Antartica

A non-hydrostatic numerical model, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), has been used to investigate the development of katabatic jumps in Coats Land, Antarctica. In the control run with a 5 m s^-1downslope directed initial wind, a katabatic jump develops near the foot of the idealized slope. The jump is manifested as a rapid deceleration of the downslope flow and a change from supercritical to subcritical flow, in a hydraulic sense, i.e., the Froude number (Fr) of the flow changes from Fr > 1 to Fr> 1. Results from sensitivity experiments show that an increase in the upstream flow rate strengthens the jump, while an increase in the downstream inversion-layer depth results in a retreat of the jump. Hydraulic theory and Bernoulli's theorem have been used to explain the surface pressure change across the jump. It is found that hydraulic theory always underestimates the surface pressure change, while Bernoulli's theorem provides a satisfactory estimation. An analysis of the downs balance for the katabatic jump indicates that the important forces are those related to the pressure gradient, advection and, to a lesser extent, the turbulent momentum divergence. The development of katabatic jumps can be divided into two phases. In phase I, the t gradient force is nearly balanced by advection, while in phase II, the pressure gradient force is counterbalanced by turbulent momentum divergence. The upslope pressure gradient force associated with a pool of cold air over the ice shelf facilitates the formation of the katabatic jump.     

The Relative Impact of Regional Scale Land Cover Change and Increasing CO2 over China

A series of 17-yr equilibrium simulations using the NCAR CCM3 (T42 resolution) were performed to investigate the regional scale impacts of land cover change and increasing CO2 over China. Simulations with natural and current land cover at CO2 levels of 280,355, 430, and 505 ppmv were conducted. Results show statistically significant changes in major climate fields (e.g. temperature and surface wind speed) on a 15-yr average following land cover change. We also found increases in the maximum temperature and in the diurnal temperature range due to land cover change. Increases in CO2 affect both the maximum and minimum temperature so that changes in the diurnal range are small. Both land cover change and CO2 change also impact the frequency distribution of precipitation with increasing CO2 tending to lead to more intense precipitation and land cover change leading to less intense precipitation-indeed, the impact of land cover change typically had the opposite effect versus the impacts of CO2. Our results provide support for the inclusion of future land cover change scenarios in long-term transitory climate inodelling experiments of the 21st Century. Our results also support the inclusion of land surface models that can represent future land cover changes resulting from an ecological response to natural climate variability or increasing CO2. Overall, we show that land cover change can have a significant impact on the regional scale climate of China, and that regionally, this impact is of a similar magnitude to increases in CO2 of up to about 430 ppmv. This means that that the impact of land cover change must be accounted for in detection and attribution studies over China.     

Impact assessments and policy responses to sea-level rise in three US states: An exploration of human-dimension uncertainties

Uncertainties in the human dimensions of global change deeply affect the assessment and responses to climate change impacts such as sea-level rise (SLR). This paper explores the uncertainties in the assessment process and in state-level policy and management responses of three US states to SLR. The findings reveal important political, economic, managerial, and social factors that enable or constrain SLR responses; question disasters as policy windows; and uncover new policy opportunities in the history of state coastal policies. Results suggest that a more realistic, and maybe more useful picture of climate change impacts will emerge if assessments take more seriously the locally embedded realities and constraints that affect individual decision-makers’ and communal responses to climate change.