CMIP5全球气候模式对上海极端气温和降水的情景预估

基于国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,以下简称CMIP5)28个模式的数值模拟结果和1981~2010年华东和上海气温和降水观测数据,评估了该28个气候模式对华东和上海气温和降水的模拟能力,并预估了RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5)情景下上海2021~2030年极端气温和降水气候的变化趋势和不确定性。结果表明:与观测值相比,模式对华东和上海年平均气温的模拟大多均值偏高、方差偏低;对年总降水量的模拟大多均值偏高,但方差以华东偏高、上海偏低为主;26个模式的气温变化趋势和12个模式的降水变化趋势与观测值相同。选出8个模式的预估结果表明:与2001~2010年相比,2021~2030年上海冬天极端低温的出现日数(冷夜日数)呈减少趋势,不确定性最小;夏天暖夜日数呈增加的趋势,不确定性较小;其他极端气温事件的变化趋势则存在较大的不确定性,冷夜指标的不确定性最大。强降水发生日数和强降水的强度都呈现增加的趋势,且不确定性较小。     

基于CMIP5资料的云南及周边地区未来50年气候预估

利用CRU(Climatic Research Unit)高分辨率观测数据及云南省124站资料,检验了参与IPCC AR5(政府间气候变化专门委员会第5次评估报告)的7个全球海气耦合模式(Coupled Model Intercomparison Program 5,CMIP5)及模式集合平均对云南及周边地区气温和降水的模拟性能,同时进行该区域不同温室气体排放量情景下2006~2055年的气候预估。结果表明:全球海气耦合模式对该区域气温和降水气候场空间分布、气温的线性趋势和春、夏季降水的年代际振荡特征具有一定的模拟能力,且模式集合能力优于单一模式,气温模拟优于降水模拟,但春、夏季的降水好于其他季节,使得全年的总降水好于秋、冬两季。对未来情景预估表明,研究区域未来50年气温呈现显著的线性上升趋势,降水量保持年代际振荡特征并有所增加,2020年之前我国云南及其南部区域将经历相对的干旱时期。     

CMIP5模式对中国东北气候模拟能力的评估

利用CN05观测资料和参与IPCC第五次评估报告的45个全球气候系统模式的模拟结果,分析了新一代全球气候模式对中国东北三省(1961~2005年)气温和降水的模拟能力。结果表明:1)绝大多数模式都能较好地模拟出研究区内显著增温的趋势,对气温的年际变化模拟能力则相对有限;2)所有模式均能很好地再现气温气候态的空间分布特征,且多模式集合模拟结果优于绝大多数单个模式,空间相关系数达到了0.96;3)对于降水的模拟结果,模式间差异较大,多模式集合能较好地再现其空间分布规律(空间相关系数为0.86),对降水年际变化及线性变化趋势的模拟能力则较差。总体来说,多模式集合对东北气候的时空变化特征具有一定的模拟能力,且对气温模拟效果优于降水,对空间分布的模拟能力优于时间变化。     

CMIP5多模式对阿留申低压气候特征的模拟检验与预估

利用观测的海温资料和海平面气压资料,检验了CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5,CMIP5)多模式对阿留申低压(Aleutian Low,AL)特征指数的时空分布和变化的模拟能力;从AL周期及变化趋势等方面,分析了CMIP5模式预估的未来AL的变化特征。结果表明,CMIP5模式及其集合平均能够很好地模拟AL的环流结构,对AL的气候态有着较强的模拟能力,尤其是模式对于东太平洋海表温度的模拟能力直接影响其对于AL的模拟效果。模式的集合平均对变率强度的模拟偏强,且对于变率的模拟效果逊于对气候态的模拟。22个模式中的16个模式能模拟出AL强度指数的年代际变化周期,对年代际周期有着较好的刻画能力。Historical试验下对于AL的变化趋势存在着较大的不确定性,而相对于两种不同排放情景,随着排放的增加,AL更加偏北,强度增强,年际、年代际周期变得更加显著。在两种排放情景下模式的集合平均以及多数模式模拟出AL有着向北和增强的趋势。     

Remote sensing of aerosols over the Solar Village, Saudi Arabia

Aerosol optical properties over Solar Village, Saudi Arabia have been studied using ground-based remote sensing observations through the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). Our analysis covered 8 recorded years of aerosol measurements, starting from February 1999 through January 2007. The seasonal mean values of aerosol optical thickness (AOT), the Ångström wavelength exponent α and the surface wind speed (V), exhibit a one year cyclical pattern. Seasonal variations are clearly found in the shape and magnitude of the volume size distribution (VSD) of the coarse size mode due to dust emission. The Spring is characterized by dusty aerosols as the modal value of the exponent α was low ~ 0.25 while that of AOT was high ~ 0.3. The modal value of wind speed was the highest ~ 3.6 m/s in spring. The increase in wind speed is responsible for increasing the concentration of dust particles during Spring. Spring of 2003 has the highest mean values of AOT, V and VSD and the lowest mean value for the exponent α. The seasonal mean values of the exponent α are anticorrelated with those of the wind speed (r = − 0.63). The annual mean values of the exponent α are well correlated (r = 0.77) with those of the difference between the maximum and minimum values of temperature ΔT. They are anticorrelated (r = − 0.74) with the annual mean values of the relative humidity. Large aerosol particles and high relative humidity increase the radiative forcing. This results in reduction of the values of the temperature difference ΔT.     

断陷盆地中断裂作用与油气的关系

断陷盆地（以黄骅坳陷为例）中广泛的断裂作用不但控制了生油凹陷的形成，而且对油气的运移和富集具有重要影响．断层的三元结构和断裂带的多元结构模型，更能合理地解释断裂作用与油气的相互关系．岩石物性参数分析表明断裂带具有双重性，即对油气的横向封堵和侧向导流．在此基础上，本文探讨了不同时代断层的断裂带对油气的封堵能力．最后通过断层剖面特征和空间配置关系的归纳研究，尝试性地对断层控制的油气藏作了形态分类．     

莼菜( Brasenia schreberi )冬芽对 Cr6+污染的抗性反应

研究了Cr6 +污染对莼菜冬芽外部形态及过氧化物酶、硝酸还原酶活性、叶绿素、O-·2 、MDA的含量等生理指标的影响 .结果显示 :Cr6 +对莼菜毒害机制在于抑制酶活性和损害细胞膜系统 .在培养第三天时叶绿素的含量随着Cr6 +浓度的增加而降低 ;过氧化物酶的活性在 10mg/L中最高 ;硝酸还原酶活性除在 5mg/L中的略微升高外 ,在 10 - 4 0mg/L之间随着Cr6 +培养浓度的升高而降低 ;O-·2 的含量在 5mg/L中的最高 ,在 10mg/L中略高于对照 ,在随后培养中随浓度的升高而降低 ,MDA的含量变化趋势和O-·2 相似     

Controls on englacial sediment deposition during the November 1996 jökulhlaup,Skeiđarárjökull,Iceland

This paper presents sedimentary evidence for rapid englacial debris entrainment during jökulhlaups. Previous studies of jökulhlaup sedimentology have focused predominantly on proglacial impact, rather than depositional processes within glaciers. However, observations of supraglacial floodwater outbursts suggest that englacial sediment emplacement is possible during jökulhlaups. The November 1996 jökulhlaup from Skei?arárjökull, Iceland presented one of the first opportunities to examine englacial flood deposits in relation to former supraglacial outlets. Using observations from Skei?arárjökull, this paper identifies and explains controls on the deposition of englacial flood sediments and presents a qualitative model for englacial jökulhlaup deposition. Englacial jökulhlaup deposits were contained within complex networks of upglacier‐dipping fractures. Simultaneous englacial deposition of fines and boulder‐sized sediment demonstrates that englacial fracture discharge had a high transport capacity. Fracture geometry was an important control on the architecture of englacial jökulhlaup deposits. The occurrence of pervasively frozen flood deposits within Skei?arárjökull is attributed to freeze‐on by glaciohydraulic supercooling. Floodwater, flowing subglacially or through upglacier‐dipping fractures, would have supercooled as it was raised to the surface faster than its pressure‐melting point could increase as glaciostatic pressure decreased. Evidence for floodwater contact with the glacier bed is supported by the ubiquitous occurrence of sheared diamict rip‐ups and intra‐clasts of basal ice within jökulhlaup fractures, deposited englacially some 200–350 m above the bed of Skei?arárjökull. Evidence for fluidal supercooled sediment accretion is apparent within stratified sands, deposited englacially at exceptionally high angles of rest in the absence of post‐depositional disturbance. Such primary sediment structures cannot be explained unless sediment is progressively accreted to opposing fracture walls. Ice retreat from areas of former supraglacial outbursts revealed distinct ridges characterized by localized upwellings of sediment‐rich floodwater. These deposits are an important addition to current models of englacial sedimentation and demonstrate the potential for post‐jökulhlaup landform development. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

靖安油田延长组长6段低孔低渗透储层特征及评价

靖安油田延长组长6段储层为湖相三角洲前缘砂体，长6期是三角洲建设的高峰期，发育三角洲水下分流河道与河口砂坝砂体及远坝微相。孔隙空间主要是原生孔隙及由次生原因形成的孔隙和裂缝。研究表明：孔隙的形成和演化受成岩作用的控制。主要成岩作用有机械压实作用，胶结作用和溶蚀作用。压实作用，胶结作用不利于孔隙的演化，而溶蚀作用有利于次生孔隙的形成。从而使某些砂岩段在低孔低渗储层中形成较发育的次生溶蚀孔隙的成岩微裂缝，并成为有效孔隙，通过综合评价认为，水下分流河道和河口砂坝微相为本区最好的储集层。