南太平洋副热带偶极子模式模拟评估

为研究模式模拟南太平洋副热带偶极子的能力,本文利用CMIP5(CoupledModel IntercomparisonProjectPhase5)模式的模拟数据评估了15种模式模拟南太平洋副热带偶极子(South Pacific Subtropical Dipole, SPSD)时空分布的效果,并予以评分。结果表明:其中10种模式可以模拟出完整的SPSD生成发展过程,且SPSD的主要区域与观测较为接近,但其余5种模式在模拟强度、位置与观测有较大出入;所有模式在模拟SPSD生成阶段时比观测提前一个月出现偶极模态,1/4的模式海表面温度(sea surface temperature, SST)偶极异常可以追溯到6个月之前;潜热通量与SST的时空分布显示,潜热通量是影响偶极模态生成发展的主要因素。模态的变化主要受大气环流的调制,在模态发展最强时部分模式的正极上方有正潜热通量异常,即海洋向大气传递热量。分析显示模式模拟海气耦合过程中的SST模拟强度较观测偏强,气压方面与观测较为接近。     

基于CMIP6多模式集合的未来中国风功率预估

实现我国2060年“碳中和”目标,需要大力发展包括风能在内的清洁能源,然而气候变化给未来风资源利用带来较大的不确定性。本文利用人工神经网络(Artificial Neural Network,ANN)算法对16个CMIP6气候模式风速数据进行逐一订正,在此基础上预估21世纪30、60年代以及21世纪末这3个不同年代在低(SSP1-2.6)和高(SSP5-8.5)排放情景下中国风功率较当代的变化。结果表明,ANN算法使CMIP6气候模式均方根误差平均降低(39.93％±9.57％),并使多模式集合平均与观测的相关系数从0.56增加到0.83,更好地再现了中国当代风速的空间分布和季节变化。在此基础上,预估的21世纪60年代(2050—2064年)风功率密度在两种情景下分别减少了(1.01±0.94) W·m^-2(2.62％±2.27％)和(1.11±1.45) W·m^-2(1.90％±2.51％)。时间上,春季作为风能密度最大的季节,两种排放情景下风功率分别减少了(1.16±1.14) W·m^-2和(1.43±1.58) W·m^-2。空间上,中国东南部风功率密度在SSP1-2.6情景下降(0.56±0.53) W·m^-2,而SSP5-8.5情景下上升(0.40±0.29) W·m^-2。近期(2025—2039年)全国平均风功率密度在两种情景下分别减少了(0.52±0.83) W·m^-2和(0.54±1.02) W·m^-2,而长期(2085—2099年)风功率密度分别减小了(0.98±1.17) W·m^-2和(1.83±1.17) W·m^-2。利用极度梯度提升(XGB)算法订正CMIP6数据的预估变化量级偏小但趋势一致,表明随着全球变暖幅度的增加,我国风功率降低的趋势将更加显著。     

Sr对6A02铝合金组织和性能的影响

通过电磁感应炉制备了含锶6A02铝合金,对制备的试样采用OM、XRD、硬度测试、拉伸测试,研究Sr含量对6A02铝合金组织和性能的影响。结果表明Sr元素的加入可以细化合金的铸态组织,改变组织形貌。当Sr含量为0.5%时,细化效果最好,合金其力学性能最优。随着Sr含量的增加,6A02铝合金出现新相Al_4Sr,随着组织中Al_4Sr相增多,Mg_2Si相的析出减少,减弱了对合金的强化效果,合金的力学性能呈下降趋势。     

利用Access97和VB6的ADO开发工程勘察数据库

根据开发工程勘察数据库的经历,介绍了利用YB6的ADO和Access97开发工程勘察数据库的步骤、方法和技巧,以及开发过程中可能遇到的问题和解决办法。     

浅水不规则波浪中油轮运动研究

本文对一般油轮在浅水不规则波浪中六自由度运动进行了试验分析,并对其碰底情况做了研究。试验时对有流情况下不同波高、不同装载的条件进行了分析比较。模型的六自由度运动是用非接触式六自由度运动测量与分析方法求得。该方法应用位置测量仪（ＰＳＤ）对安置在模型上的红外线发光源（ＬＥＤ）进行测量,然后所编制的软件计算出模型的六个自由度运动情况。     

Change of tropical cyclone heat potential in response to global warming

Tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) in the ocean can affect tropical cyclone intensity and intensification. In this paper, TCHP change under global warming is presented based on 35 models from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5). As the upper ocean warms up, the TCHP of the global ocean is projected to increase by 140.6% in the 21st century under the RCP4.5 (+4.5 W m^-2 Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario. The increase is particularly significant in the western Pacific, northwestern Indian and western tropical Atlantic oceans. The increase of TCHP results from the ocean temperature warming above the depth of the 26°C isotherm (D26), the deepening of D26, and the horizontal area expansion of SST above 26°C. Their contributions are 69.4%, 22.5% and 8.1%, respectively. Further, a suite of numerical experiments with an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) is conducted to investigate the relative importance of wind stress and buoyancy forcing to the TCHP change under global warming. Results show that sea surface warming is the dominant forcing for the TCHP change, while wind stress and sea surface salinity change are secondary.     

Long-term Regional Dynamic Sea Level Changes from CMIP6 Projections

Anthropogenic climate forcing will cause the global mean sea level to rise over the 21st century.However,regional sea level is expected to vary across ocean basins,superimposed by the influence of natural internal climate variability.Here,we address the detection of dynamic sea level(DSL)changes by combining the perspectives of a single and a multimodel ensemble approach(the 50-member CanESM5 and a 27-model ensemble,respectively,all retrieved from the CMIP6 archive),under three CMIP6 projected scenarios:SSP1-2.6,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5.The ensemble analysis takes into account four key metrics:signal(S),noise(N),S/N ratio,and time of emergence(ToE).The results from both sets of ensembles agree in the fact that regions with higher S/N(associated with smaller uncertainties)also reflect earlier ToEs.The DSL signal is projected to emerge in the Southern Ocean,Southeast Pacific,Northwest Atlantic,and the Arctic.Results common for both sets of ensemble simulations show that while S progressively increases with increased projected emissions,N,in turn,does not vary substantially among the SSPs,suggesting that uncertainty arising from internal climate variability has little dependence on changes in the magnitude of external forcing.Projected changes are greater and quite similar for the scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 and considerably smaller for the SSP1-2.6,highlighting the importance of public policies towards lower emission scenarios and of keeping emissions below a certain threshold.     

6-DMAP诱导太平洋牡蛎三倍体——4.四倍体现象的研究

１９９６～１９９７年,在进行６－二甲基氨基嘌呤（６－ＤＭＡＰ）诱导太平洋牡蛎产生三倍体的实验过程中,发现一定数量的四倍体。解剖法获取精卵,人工授精。染色体倍性鉴别采用染色体计数法。（１）三因素四水平Ｌ１６（４５）正交设计。试验平行重复２次。最高四倍体诱导率为４０．０±０．０％。太平洋牡蛎四倍体各诱导因素的最优水平组合：当精卵混合２０ｍｉｎ时,将受精卵浸泡在含６－ＤＭＡＰ４５０μｍｏｌＬ－１的海水中１０ｍｉｎ;决定四倍体产生的三因素的主次顺序：６－ＤＭＡＰ浓度→诱导时机→诱导持续时间。（２）三因素三水平Ｌ９（３４）正交设计。试验平行重复３次。最高四倍体诱导率为９．６±４．９％。诱导太平洋牡蛎四倍体各因素的最优水平组合：当５０％受精卵出现第一极体时,将受精卵浸泡在含６－ＤＭＡＰ４５０μｍｏｌＬ－１的海水中１５ｍｉｎ;决定四倍体产生的三因素的主次顺序：诱导时机→６－ＤＭＡＰ浓度→诱导持续时间。