Spatiotemporal estimation of snow depth using point data from snow stakes,digital terrain models,and satellite data

Snow availability in Alpine catchments plays an important role in water resources management. In this paper, we propose a method for an optimal estimation of snow depth (areal extension and thickness) in Alpine systems from point data and satellite observations by using significant explanatory variables deduced from a digital terrain model. It is intended to be a parsimonious approach that may complement physical‐based methodologies. Different techniques (multiple regression, multicriteria analysis, and kriging) are integrated to address the following issues: We identify the explanatory variables that could be helpful on the basis of a critical review of the scientific literature. We study the relationship between ground observations and explanatory variables using a systematic procedure for a complete multiple regression analysis. Multiple regression models are calibrated combining all suggested model structures and explanatory variables. We also propose an evaluation of the models (using indices to analyze the goodness of fit) and select the best approaches (models and variables) on the basis of multicriteria analysis. Estimation of the snow depth is performed with the selected regression models. The residual estimation is improved by applying kriging in cases with spatial correlation. The final estimate is obtained by combining regression and kriging results, and constraining the snow domain in accordance with satellite data. The method is illustrated using the case study of the Sierra Nevada mountain range (Southern Spain). A cross‐validation experiment has confirmed the efficiency of the proposed procedure. Finally, although it is not the scope of this work, the snow depth is used to asses a first estimation of snow water equivalent resources.     

Using raw regional climate model outputs for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

General circulation model outputs are rarely used directly for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology, due to their coarse resolution and inherent bias. Bias correction methods are usually applied to correct the statistical deviations of climate model outputs from the observed data. However, the use of bias correction methods for impact studies is often disputable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs. With the improvement in model resolution and reliability, it is now possible to investigate the direct use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs for impact studies. This study proposes an approach to use RCM simulations directly for quantifying the hydrological impacts of climate change over North America. With this method, a hydrological model (HSAMI) is specifically calibrated using the RCM simulations at the recent past period. The change in hydrological regimes for a future period (2041–2065) over the reference (1971–1995), simulated using bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected simulations, is compared using mean flow, spring high flow, and summer–autumn low flow as indicators. Three RCMs driven by three different general circulation models are used to investigate the uncertainty of hydrological simulations associated with the choice of a bias‐corrected or nonbias‐corrected RCM simulation. The results indicate that the uncertainty envelope is generally watershed and indicator dependent. It is difficult to draw a firm conclusion about whether one method is better than the other. In other words, the bias correction method could bring further uncertainty to future hydrological simulations, in addition to uncertainty related to the choice of a bias correction method. This implies that the nonbias‐corrected results should be provided to end users along with the bias‐corrected ones, along with a detailed explanation of the bias correction procedure. This information would be especially helpful to assist end users in making the most informed decisions.     

An Eocene/Oligocene blueschist‐/greenschist facies P–T loop from the Cycladic Blueschist Unit on Naxos Island,Greece: Deformation‐related re‐equilibration vs. thermal relaxation

Geothermobarometric and geochronological work indicates a complete Eocene/early Oligocene blueschist/greenschist facies metamorphic cycle of the Cycladic Blueschist Unit on Naxos Island in the Aegean Sea region. Using the average pressure–temperature (P–T) method of thermocalc coupled with detailed textural work, we separate an early blueschist facies event at 576 ± 16 to 619 ± 32°C and 15.5 ± 0.5 to 16.3 ± 0.9 kbar from a subsequent greenschist facies overprint at 384 ± 30°C and 3.8 ± 1.1 kbar. Multi‐mineral Rb–Sr isochron dating yields crystallization ages for near peak‐pressure blueschist facies assemblages between 40.5 ± 1.0 and 38.3 ± 0.5 Ma. The greenschist facies overprint commonly did not result in complete resetting of age signatures. Maximum ages for the end of greenschist facies reworking, obtained from disequilibrium patterns, cluster near c. 32 Ma, with one sample showing rejuvenation at c. 27 Ma. We conclude that the high‐P rocks from south Naxos were exhumed to upper mid‐crustal levels in the late Eocene and early Oligocene at rates of 7.4 ± 4.6 km/Ma, completing a full blueschist‐/greenschist facies metamorphic cycle soon after subduction within c. 8 Ma. The greenschist facies overprint of the blueschist facies rocks from south Naxos resulted from rapid exhumation and associated deformation/fluid‐controlled metamorphic re‐equilibration, and is unrelated to the strong high‐T metamorphism associated with the Miocene formation of the Naxos migmatite dome. It follows that the Miocene thermal overprint had no impact on rock textures or Sr isotopic signatures, and that the rocks of south Naxos underwent three metamorphic events, one more than hitherto envisaged.     

Three dimensional numerical simulation of residential building on shrink–swell soils in response to climatic conditions

Shrink–swell soils can cause distresses in buildings, and every year, the economic loss associated with this problem is huge. This paper presents a comprehensive system for simulating the soil–foundation–building system and its response to daily weather conditions. Weather data include rainfall, solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, all of which are readily available from a local weather station or the Internet. These data are used to determine simulation flux boundary conditions. Different methods are proposed to simulate different boundary conditions: bare soil, trees, and vegetation. A coupled hydro‐mechanical stress analysis is used to simulate the volume change of shrink–swell soils due to both mechanical stress and water content variations. Coupled hydro‐mechanical stress‐jointed elements are used to simulate the interaction between the soil and the slab, and general shell elements are used to simulate structural behavior. All the models are combined into one finite element program to predict the entire system's behavior. This paper first described the theory for the simulations. A site in Arlington, Texas, is then selected to demonstrate the application of the proposed system. Simulation results are shown, and a comparison between measured and predicted movements for four footings in Arlington, Texas, over a 2‐year period is presented. Finally, a three‐dimensional simulation is made for a virtual residential building on shrink–swell soils to identify the influence of various factors. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transient seepage analysis in zoned anisotropic soils based on the scaled boundary finite‐element method

The scaled boundary finite‐element method, a semi‐analytical computational scheme primarily developed for dynamic stiffness of unbounded domains, is applied to the analysis of unsteady seepage flow problems. This method is based on the finite‐element technology and gains the advantages of the boundary element method as well. Only boundary of the domain is discretized, no fundamental solution is required and singularity problems can be modeled rigorously. Anisotropic and non‐homogeneous materials satisfying similarity are modeled with no additional efforts. In this study, firstly, formulation of the method for the transient seepage flow problems is derived followed by its solution procedures. The accuracy, simplicity and applicability of the method are demonstrated via four numerical examples of transient seepage flow – three of them are available in the literature. Homogenous, non‐homogenous, isotropic and anisotropic material properties are considered to show the versatility of the technique. Excellent agreement with the finite‐element method is observed. The method out‐performs the finite‐element method in modeling singularity points. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Liquefaction potential evaluations by energy-based method and stress-based method for various ground motions

An energy-based liquefaction potential evaluation method (EBM) previously developed was applied to a uniform sand model shaken by seismic motions recorded at different sites during different magnitude earthquakes. It was also applied to actual liquefaction case histories in Urayasu city during the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku earthquake and in Tanno-cho during the 2003 M8.0 Tokachi-oki earthquake. In all these evaluations, the results were compared with those by the currently used stress-based method (SBM) under exactly the same seismic and geotechnical conditions. It was found that EBM yields similar results with SBM for several ground motions of recent earthquakes but has easier applicability without considering associated parameters. In Urayasu city, the two methods yielded nearly consistent results by using an appropriate coefficient in SBM for the M9.0 earthquake, though both overestimated the actual liquefaction performance, probably because effects of plasticity and aging on in situ liquefaction strength were not taken into account. In Tanno-cho, EBM could evaluate actual liquefaction performance due to a small-acceleration motion during a far-field large magnitude earthquake while SBM could not.     

Estimation of near surface soil moisture in a sloping terrain of a Himalayan watershed using ENVISAT ASAR multi‐incidence angle alternate polarisation data

Soil moisture is one of the important input variables in hydrological and water erosion models. The extraction of information on near surface soil moisture from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is well established mostly for flat terrain and using low incidence angle single polarisation data. The ENVISAT advanced SAR (ASAR) data available in multiple incidence angles and alternate polarisation modes were investigated in this study for soil moisture estimation in sloping terrain. The test site was Sitla Rao watershed in the Lesser Himalayas of northern India. Empirical models were developed to estimate near surface soil moisture in bare agricultural fields using alternate polarisation ASAR data. Both soil moisture and surface roughness field measurements were performed during the satellite passes. Backscatter from medium incidence angle (IS‐4) and vertical‐vertical (VV) polarisation signal is correlated better with volumetric soil moisture content compared to other incidence angles. The model parameters were further improved, and soil moisture estimation was refined by combining medium incidence angle (IS4) vertical‐horizontal polarisation response as another variable along with VV polarisation response. The effect of slope on the radar backscatter was minimized by incorporating local incidence angles derived from an ASTER DEM. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fingerprinting the 8.2 ka event climate response in a coupled climate model

Using results from coupled climate model simulations of the 8.2 ka climate event that produced a cold period over Greenland in agreement with the reconstructed cooling from ice cores, we investigate the typical pattern of climate anomalies (fingerprint) to provide a framework for the interpretation of global proxy data for the 8.2 ka climate event. For this purpose we developed an analysis method that isolates the forced temperature response and provides information on spatial variations in magnitude, timing and duration that characterise the detectable climate event in proxy archives. Our analysis shows that delays in the temperature response to the freshwater forcing are present, mostly in the order of decades (30 a over central Greenland). The North Atlantic Ocean initially cools in response to the freshwater perturbation, followed in certain parts by a warm response. This delay, occurring more than 200 a after the freshwater pulse, hints at an overshoot in the recovery from the freshwater perturbation. The South Atlantic and the Southern Ocean show a warm response reflecting the bipolar seesaw effect. The duration of the simulated event varies for different areas, and the highest probability of recording the event in proxy archives is in the North Atlantic Ocean area north of 40° N. Our results may facilitate the interpretation of proxy archives recording the 8.2 ka event, as they show that timing and duration cannot be assumed to correspond with the timing and duration of the event as recorded in Greenland ice cores. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.