THE ANALYSIS OF MECHANISM OF IMPACT OF AEROSOLS ON EAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON INDEX AND ONSET

RegCM4.3, a high-resolution regional climate model, which includes five kinds of aerosols(dust, sea salt,sulfate, black carbon and organic carbon), is employed to simulate the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) from 1995 to 2010 and the simulation data are used to study the possible impact of natural and anthropogenic aerosols on EASM.The results show that the regional climate model can well simulate the EASM and the spatial and temporal distribution of aerosols. The EASM index is reduced by about 5% by the natural and anthropogenic aerosols and the monsoon onset time is also delayed by about a pentad except for Southeast China. The aerosols heat the middle atmosphere through absorbing solar radiation and the air column expands in Southeast China and its offshore areas. As a result, the geopotential height decreases and a cyclonic circulation anomaly is generated in the lower atmosphere. Northerly wind located in the west of cyclonic circulation weakens the low-level southerly wind in the EASM region. Negative surface radiative forcing due to aerosols causes downward motion and an indirect meridional circulation is formed with the low-level northerly wind and high-level southerly wind anomaly in the north of 25° N in the monsoon area, which weakens the vertical circulation of EASM. The summer precipitation of the monsoon region is significantly reduced,especially in North and Southwest China where the value of moisture flux divergence increases.     

IAP GCM模式大气背景环流在厄尔尼诺年的异常

本文分析了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气环流模式(IAP GCM)模式大气5～9月平均环流(本文称为背景环流)。结果表明;厄尔尼诺年一系列重要系统(南方涛动、瓦克环流、哈德莱环流、西太平洋副热带高压和热带辐合带)及大范围降水均发生明显异常;北半球西太平洋热带、副热带是环流异常的主要区域。它们与观测资料的分析结果基本一致,从而论证了该模式在低纬环流研究中的应用前景。     

金矿床定年方法进展及中国金矿床成矿时代

本文汇集和讨论了夹皮沟、辽宁、冀东、张家口、小秦岭、胶东、湘西、粤西－海南、滇西、北疆和台湾等我国主要金矿化集中区某些典型矿床的成矿年龄．在此基础上讨论了金矿床蚀变矿物、流体包裹体、石英、水热锆石、裂变径迹和矿石矿物同位素年龄测定新方法及热释发光技术在金矿床定年中的进展。普通铅模式年龄的定年意义是很有限的，但异常铅模式研究可用来示踪金矿化历史。＂成矿物质来源年龄老，矿床定位年龄新＂，即成矿作用具有明显继承性是中国金矿床最突出的特征。     

融合海域多源重力数据的正则化点质量方法

泰勒级数展开是实施位场向下延拓解算的主要方法之一。该方法的有效性主要取决于位场延拓参量各阶垂向（或径向）偏导数的求取精度及其可靠性。为了避免使用封闭解析核函数在球边界面出现奇异性带来的不确定性问题,依据各类重力观测经滤波处理后均表现为一类有限频谱带宽信号的特点,提出将地球外部重力异常泊松积分式的核函数表示为球谐级数展开式,并将其截断为与重力观测值频谱范围相一致的带限求和式,进而通过直接求导方法,推导得到一组与带限核函数相对应的重力异常高阶径向导数带限计算公式,同时对该组公式进行了实用性改化,并将其应用于重力异常向下延拓泰勒级数展开式计算。使用超高阶地球位模型EGM2008设计两个阶段的数值计算检验方案,分别对重力异常高阶径向偏导数带限模型及其泰勒级数展开向下延拓模型的计算精度进行了检核评估,表明新模型具有良好的可靠性和有效性,在解算稳定性和计算精度两个方面都优于其他同类模型。

     

遥感信息与作物生长模型的耦合应用研究进展

卫星遥感技术具有快速、宏观、准确、客观、及时、动态等特点,在大范围作物长势监测和产量预测等方面具有得天独厚的优势。但遥感监测常常受卫星遥感数据空间分辨率、时间分辨率等因素的影响,且遥感信息大多反映的是瞬间物理状况。作物生长模型是对作物生长、发育、产量形成过程中的一系列生理生化过程进行数学描述,是一种面向过程、机理性的动态模型。但是,当作物模拟从单点研究发展到区域应用时,由于随空间尺度的增大导致模型中一些宏观资料的获取和参数的区域化方面存在很多困难。
遥感信息与作物生长模型的耦合应用可以解决作物长势监测和产量预测等一系列农业问题,越来越受到相关研究人员的关注,已经逐渐成为一个重要的研究领域。因此,随着作物模型和遥感技术的迅速发展,如何将两者结合,进行互补性的研究是很有意义的。在查阅了相关资料的基础上,综述了遥感信息与作物生长模型的耦合应用以及发展历程,分别阐述了两种遥感数据与作物生长模型的结合方法——强迫法和同化法,总结了两类方法的应用情况。最后提出了该领域存在的问题,以及进一步解决的研究方向。     

Assessment of 2DH and pseudo‐3D modelling platforms in a large saline aquatic system: Lake Urmia,Iran

The main objective of this paper is to provide comparative quantitative examinations on the capabilities of two‐dimensional horizontal and pseudo‐three‐dimensional (3D) modelling approaches for simulating spatial and temporal variability of the flow and salinity in Lake Urmia, Iran. The water quality in the lake has been an environmentally important subject partly because this shallow hypersaline aquatic ecosystem is considered to be one of the largest natural habitats of a unique multicellular organism, Artemia urmiana. This brine shrimp is the major food source for many of the protected and rare shorebirds that visit the lake. A. urmiana can grow and survive in certain ranges of salinity, and their disappearance could lead to an alteration of existing equilibria. The lake has also experienced considerable man‐made changes during the past three decades. A newly built crossing embankment almost divided the lake into two northern and southern halves. A relatively small opening of 1.25 km in the new embankment provides water connections between the two halves. As a result, the flow and salinity regimes have been significantly changed. This might have had adverse serious impacts on the lake ecosystem. In the current study, the two‐dimensional horizontal hydrodynamic model has been found to provide reasonable predictions for the flow regime in the lake, whereas its salinity predictions have not been consistent with the field observations. The pseudo‐3D model has produced results fairly close to the salinity measurements and its temporal and spatial variations. The pseudo‐3D model has been used for evaluating the embankment effects on the lake hydrodynamics and on the salinity conditions. The effectiveness of introducing a different number or length of openings in the embankment for restoring the pre‐embankment conditions has also been examined. These remedy options have been found not to offer substantial improvements to the lake's existing ecosystem. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1) I. A. H. S. / A. I. H. S.

Abstract

A simple method is used to study the response of runoff in the Sahel to climate change. The statistical characteristics of rainfall are calculated over the western part of the Sahel for the period 1961–1990, using the BADOPLU network. Daily rainfall is simulated using a Markov process with Weibull distribution for rainfall depths. Runoff is modelled using a conceptual SCS model and the curve numbers are calculated for West Africa. Climate change is provided by simulations using the Arpège GCM (Scenario A1B), and a perturbation method is used on the parameters which describe the rainfall. Changes in rainfall are assumed to occur through increases in frequency, not intensity. Using Arpège, runoff is mainly found to increase, in depth and in number of events, by the end of the 21st century. Changes in evaporation and land use are not included in the analysis. The impact of this 21st century potential climate change (rainfall) on the runoff is found to be of the same magnitude as the impact of changes in land use.     

海洋环境因子对澳洲鲐亲体补充量关系的影响——基于贝叶斯模型平均法的研究

澳洲鲐（Scomber australasicus）是西北太平洋重要的中上层经济鱼类,生命周期相对较短,资源量受补充量影响明显,了解澳洲鲐太平洋群系补充量状况对掌握其资源量及确保其可持续利用具有重要的意义。本文利用产卵场1（30°~32°N,130°~132°E）海表面温度（sea surface temperature,SST1）、产卵场2（34°~35°N,138°~141°E）海表面温度（SST2）、索饵场（35°~45°N,140°~160°E）海表面温度（SST3）、潮位差（tidal range,TR）、太平洋年代际涛动（Pacific decadal oscillation,PDO）和亲体量（spawning stock biomass,SSB）6个影响因子任意组合与补充量构建多个模型,运用贝叶斯模型平均法（Bayesian model averaging,BMA）分析各个环境因子对资源补充量的解释能力,并预测其补充量的变化。结果表明,SSB对补充量具有最长期且稳定的解释能力,其次是SST3,PDO、TR、SST2、SST1也对补充量模型具有一定的解释能力。SST3是环境因子中影响最大的因子,可能是由于补充群体在索饵场内生活时间较长,索饵场温度对仔鱼或鱼卵的生长存活有较大的影响。研究认为,基于BMA的组合预报综合考虑了各个模型的优势,优于单一模型,可用于澳洲鲐资源补充量的预测。     

后挖沟深度对深海海底管道屈曲影响数值分析

鉴于海底管道的服役水深越来越深,主要采用犁式挖沟机对预铺设于海床之上的海底管道采取后挖沟的方式将海底管道埋设于海床之下,以保护其免受不必要的损伤。针对后挖沟深度H是海底挖沟机的重要设计参数,也是影响管道悬跨的重要因素的问题,对SMD(UK)犁式挖沟机展开参数优化,确保作业过程中悬跨段管道在外部静水压力作用下,海底管道不会发生屈曲破坏。采用ABAQUS软件,分别建立了作业前和作业中两种工况下的悬跨模型,分析机械手对接触部分管道的损伤,结果显示,作业中的机械手对悬跨管道的损伤更大;同时,建立了作业中不同管径下,后挖沟深度对管道损伤的安全裕量关系曲线。进一步,结合作业中不同挖沟深度下的管跨段屈曲数值模型,对处于外部静水压力作用下的悬跨管的屈曲失效展开分析,结果显示,随着后挖沟深度的加大,不同管径下的悬跨段管道局部出现塑性压溃的临界压力值不断降低;管道外径的增大,降低了同一后挖沟深度下发生屈曲失效的压力值。最后,在后挖沟深度与外部静水压力组成的区域内,建立屈曲失效临界关系曲线,并划分出工作区和压溃区,为深海管道后挖沟埋管的施工提供工程参考。     

HUBEX强化观测期雷达测雨在水文过程模拟中的应用(英)

选择全球能量与水循环亚洲季风试验区的淮河黄泥庄水文站控制的史河流域(805 km2)为研究区域,基于数字高程模型,生成栅格水流流向,构建数字流域及空间拓扑关系;然后,将阜阳雷达观测数据经过订正校准后作为研究区内每一栅格单元上的雨量输入,并在每一栅格上应用新安江模型构建产流模型;再根据每一栅格至流域出口断面-黄泥庄水文站的距离,运用Muskingum方法进行汇流演算,从而获得黄泥庄站的流量过程。计算结果显示,从1998年5月31日-8月3日的强化观测期内模型确定性系数为92.41％,其间4场洪水的确定性系数分别为85.64％、86.62％、92.57％和83.91％,高于应用地面雨量计观测的数据计算的结果。这说明雷达测雨数据具有较高的时空分辨率,当它应用于水文过程模拟时优于地面雨量计资料,基于栅格的水文模型为充分利用雷达数据提供了良好平台。