陕北春季森林火灾气象条件分析

通过对1989~2004年间陕北春季森林火灾发生期气象资料进行研究分析,指出春季2~5月份林火期气候特征、森林火灾易发期天气环流特征,林火的发生与冷空气活动密切相关。在春季森林火灾期地面气象要素也呈现出一定的变化规律。     

Remotely sensed estimation of forest canopy density: A comparison of the performance of four methods

In recent years, a number of alternative methods have been proposed to predict forest canopy density from remotely sensed data. To date, however, it remains difficult to decide which method to use, since their relative performance has never been evaluated. In this study the performance of: (1) an artificial neural network, (2) a multiple linear regression, (3) the forest canopy density mapper and (4) a maximum likelihood classification method was compared for prediction of forest canopy density using a Landsat ETM+ image. Comparison of confusion matrices revealed that the regression model performed significantly worse than the three other methods. These results were based on a z-test for comparison of weighted kappa statistics, which is an appropriate statistic for analysis of ranked categories. About 89% of the variance of the observed canopy density was explained by the artificial neural networks, which outperformed the other three methods in this respect. Moreover, the artificial neural networks gave an unbiased prediction, while other methods systematically under or over predicted forest canopy density. The choice of biased method could have a high impact on canopy density inventories.     

Flux contribution of coherent structures and its implications for the exchange of energy and matter in a tall spruce canopy

The flux contribution of coherent structures to the total exchange of energy and matter is investigated in a spruce canopy of moderate density in heterogeneous, complex terrain. The study deploys two methods of analysis to estimate the coherent exchange: conditional averages in combination with wavelet analysis, and quadrant analysis. The data were obtained by high-frequency single-point measurements using sonic anemometers and gas analysers at five observation heights above and within the canopy and subcanopy, and represent a period of up to 2.5 months. The study mainly addresses the momentum transfer and exchange of sensible heat throughout the roughness sublayer, while results are provided for the exchange of carbon dioxide and water vapour above the canopy. The magnitude of the flux contribution of coherent structures largely depends on the method of analysis, and it is demonstrated that these differences are attributed to differences in the sampling strategy between the two methods. Despite the differences, relational properties such as sweep and ejection ratios and the variation of the flux contribution with height were in agreement for both methods. The sweep phase of coherent structures is the dominant process close to and within the canopy, whereas the ejections gain importance with increasing distance to the canopy. The efficiency of the coherent exchange in transporting scalars exceeds that for momentum by a factor of two. The occurrence of coherent structures results in a flux error less than 4% for the eddy-covariance method. Based on the physical processes identified from the analysis of the ejection and sweep phases along the vertical profile in the roughness sublayer, a classification scheme for the identification of exchange regimes is developed. This scheme allows one to estimate the region of the canopy participating in the exchange of energy and matter with the above-canopy air under varying environmental conditions.     

Enter the working forest: Discourse analysis in the Northern Forest

In 1988, four states in the northeastern USA commissioned a study to address land use changes in the Northern Forest, 26 million acres of temperate and boreal forest extending from Maine to eastern New York State. Against a backdrop of economic destabilization and concerns regarding social and ecological implications of a real estate boom, the sustained deliberative dialogue catalyzed by this study has come to rely heavily on the ambiguous concept of “working forest.” To clarify political and environmental dynamics in the region, we analyzed how people respond to and seek to capitalize on the interpretive flexibility of the term working forest. We combine an analysis of socio-political discourses of working forest based on a structured literature review with an assessment of local peoples’ definitions of working forest based on a survey conducted in a pair of contrasting New York State communities. The first study site represents an amenity-oriented community (i.e. a place where the forest supports a service economy including recreation and tourism) and the other study site represents a timber-dependent community. By linking data from community-level analysis to data derived from a general analysis of forest politics, we seek to develop a more robust perspective. By comparing discourses across differently structured communities, we investigate how local forest politics are mediated by local economic development processes. Our study empirically illustrates contested and geographically uneven processes of social construction of environment and rural development in a region confronting pressures of globalization. Results indicate that timber harvesting is a heavily privileged management objective, as a logic of ‘the forest that pays is the forest that stays’ dominates. Environmental politics in the region, and perhaps more generally, increasingly conforms to a form of pragmatism in which economic opportunities structure conservation planning and investment.     

Line emission from accretion discs around black holes: the analytic approach

The broad X-ray iron line observed in many active galactic nuclei spectra is thought to originate from the accretion disc surrounding the putative supermassive black hole. We show here how to perform the analytical integration of the geodesic equations that describe the photon trajectories in the general case of a rotating black hole (Kerr metric), in order to write a fast and efficient numerical code for modelling emission line profiles from accretion discs.     

南海区4种鲷鱼精子的适盐性比较

研究了盐度对黄鳍鲷SparuslatusHouttuyn、平鲷Rhabdosargussarba（Forskal）、黑鲷Sparusmacrocephalus（Basilewsky）和真鲷Pagrsomusmajor（TemmincketSchlegel）4种鲷鱼精子活力的影响。对南海区4种鲷鱼精子的适盐性及其活力进行了比较,黄鳍鲷、平鲷、黑鲷和真鲷精子激活所需的最低盐度分别为8、10、＞8、＞10;激活的最适盐度则分别为21、22、25、25,与之相应的精子活动（涡动）时间分别为14．7、17．7、17．2、18．0min;在高盐条件（盐度40左右）下,黄鳍鲷精子的适应性最强,精子活力最好,其次是黑鲷、真鲷的精子,平鲷精子对高盐条件的适应性最差。     

湘黔地区中奥陶世海平面上升的沉积响应

中奥陶世克拉道克阶(Caradocian)在全球范围内为海侵期,体现在全球范围广泛的黑色页岩沉积及笔石动物的大规模繁盛,湘黔地区这一时期地层发育完全,从碳酸盐台地-斜坡-外陆架盆地均有不同程度的响应。在台地区表现为碳酸盐台地的淹没,斜坡区表现为碳酸盐重力流及黑色页岩、粉砂岩沉积,形成碳酸盐与陆源碎屑的混合沉积,而在外陆架盆地区表现为黑色岩系大规模发育及笔石的大量繁盛。     

Structure of the crust in the Black Sea and adjoining regions from surface wave data

Group velocities of Rayleigh and Love waves along the paths across the Black Sea and partly Asia Minor and the Balkan Peninsula are used to estimate lateral variations of the crustal structure in the region. As a first step, lateral variations of group velocities for periods in the range 10–20 s are determined using a 2D tomography method. Since the paths are oriented predominantly in NE–SW or N–S direction, the resolution is estimated as a function of azimuth. The local dispersion curves are actually averaged over the extended areas stretched in the predominant direction of the paths. The size of the averaging area in the direction of the best resolution is approximately 200 km. As a second step, the local averaged dispersion curves are inverted to vertical sections of S-wave velocities. Since the dispersion curves in the 10–20 s period range are mostly affected by the upper crustal structure, the velocities are estimated to a depth of approximately 25 km. Velocity sections along 43° N latitude are determined separately from Rayleigh and Love wave data. It is shown that the crust under the sea contains a low-velocity sedimentary layer of 2–3 km thickness, localized in the eastern and western deeps, as found earlier from DSS data. Beneath the sedimentary layer, two layers are present with velocity values lying between those of granite and consolidated sediments. Velocities in these layers are slightly lower in the deeps, and the boundaries of the layers are lowered. S-wave velocities obtained from Love wave data are found to be larger than those from Rayleigh wave data, the difference being most pronounced in the basaltic layer. If this difference is attributed to anisotropy, the anisotropy coefficient = (SH - SV)/Smean is reasonable (2–3%) in the upper layers, and exceeds 9% in the basaltic layer.     

Permeability of coals and characteristics of desorption tests: Implications for coalbed methane production

Desorption tests, conducted before development drilling, can predict early production rates of coalbed methane wells. In this study, results from 136 desorption tests from 30 coreholes are compared to subsequent production histories of surrounding wells. Coals studied are from the Carboniferous Pottsville Formation in the Black Warrior Basin of Alabama, USA. The investigation indicates that the best predictor for gas production is ‘‘gas yield at 120 days, divided by sample depth'. This quotient has a higher correlation with actual gas production than other variables examined, including original reserves in-place. Gas content of coal generally increases with depth. However, coal permeability, and hence the recovery factor, tends to decrease with depth. Therefore, coalbed methane exploration should focus on finding the optimal balance between gas yield and depth. Commercially successful wells are characterized by coals with high gas yields at shallow depths. Desorption tests, especially of slowly-desorbing coals, should be run for a minimum of 120 days, or else should be extrapolated to that time if tests are terminated earlier.     

Kinematic Dynamos in the Kerr Metric

It is known that a sharp decrease in the angular velocity of the accretion disk around a black hole could in principle produce a kinematic axisymmetric dynamo, in contrast to the classical situation described by Cowling's antidynamo theorem. Here the effect of a nontrivial poloidal velocity of the disk is studied, showing that a strong gradient of this velocity enhances the possibilities of a working dynamo.