1470年以来中国东部季风区降水变化规律及趋势预估

超长系列的降水资料是分析气候变化和预估未来区域水安全形势的重要支撑,但目前观测资料只有几十年时间尺度,利用相关历史文献资料进行系列重建是延长现有观测资料的主要手段。基于《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》和1959年以来实测降水资料,重建1470—2019年中国东部季风区的长序列降水数据,分析近550 a以来区域降水变化规律,剖析气候自然变异规律和人为气候变化对历史降水的影响,并通过CMIP6中等分辨率气候系统模式下的4种情景降水数据预估未来降水变化趋势。研究表明：(1)东部季风区降水年际分布不均,有明显的丰枯变化,1470—1691年整体处于枯水期,1692—1924年处于丰水期,1925年至今处于枯水期,存在准181 a周期;(2) 1991年后人为气候变化的影响已经显现,海河、黄河下游和长江流域部分降水倾向率发生显著变化,东部季风区总体降水增加趋势加快;(3)在未来气候变化情景下多年平均降水量较基准期(1961—1990年)显著增加,季节性变化加大,区域旱涝风险加剧。由于未来气候情景的不确定性,未来降水趋势预测的可信度尚未可知,需要进一步增强风险分析。     

A Late Quaternary lake record from the Qilian Mountains (NW China): lake level and salinity changes inferred from sediment properties and ostracod assemblages

Two sediment cores (length 13.94 and 12.93 m) have been drilled from the small alpine Lake Luanhaizi in the eastern central Qilian Mountains and correlated by means of magnetic susceptibility (MS). This paper focuses on the lithology and chronology of the longer core, on the results of loss on ignition (LOI), element concentration, thermomagnetic as well as magnetic hysteresis loop measurements, and on the ostracod record.The recovered sediments represent three types of depositional environment: a shallow intermittent lake, a deeper permanent lake and a true playa lake. Three stages of a higher lake level and permanence of the water body are reconstructed. The lowermost stage of a permanent lake and inferred favourable environmental conditions occurred probably about 45 ¹⁴C ka BP. The second stage of a deeper permanent lake occurred either shortly before or, more likely, following the LGM. Most favourable environmental conditions and highest water levels were reconstructed for the uppermost stage comprising the Holocene. Considering the lake record, glaciers have not reached the lake site at 3200 m altitude during the LGM, providing further evidence against a large ice sheet on the Tibetan Plateau.     

基于弯曲路径的混凝土超声层析成像及其改进

针对混凝土质量检测的特点,采用弯曲射线进行超声层析成像。首先建立波速分布的网格模型,并引入最短路径法进行射线追踪,然后采用联合迭代重建技术（SIRT）反演成像。为使算法适应弯曲射线,对SIRT的计算步骤进行调整,增加外层迭代,以便对修正后的路径进行下一轮反演;为提高反演精度,根据射线传播距离、幅度衰减、频率突变等信息建立和调整信号可信度系数,并依据该系数在求取网格慢度修正值时进行加权平均;为缩短计算时间,动态调整网格节点个数,并进行双向最短路径追踪。经过数值模拟及对混凝土基桩的实测,证明该方法在计算准确性和精度上有明显改进,计算速度也可以满足工程应用的需要。     

2008年汶川地震重灾区的泥石流

2008年,在"5·12"汶川地震后,随着降雨的发生,地震重灾区的中高山区较普遍地多次发生了泥石流灾害,尤其是对一些地震灾民安置点板房区造成了危害,累计造成人员伤亡(含失踪)达450余人,进一步加重了灾情.按照地震与泥石流暴发的时间顺序分类,区内的泥石流属后发型地震泥石流.其特征主要为:泥石流活动频率增高,暴发点多,规模大小不一,流体件质一般以粘性为主,密度值多在2.0-2.3t/m<'3>之间;泥石流的活动范嗣与降雨关系密切,活动范围还受地形因素控制,主要集中在龙门山等中高山区;泥石流危害形式有冲毁、淤埋、堵塞主河等多种形式.因此,在汶川地震重灾区这样的Ⅸ域选址恢复重建,实质上是在上程地质条件复杂的不稳定区内选择相对稳定的安全岛,町供选择的场地极为有限.故恢复重建居民点时应因地制宜,尤其是岷江等江河峡谷区等地的居民点重建,宜保持当地居民传统的分散、多点居住的特点,而不宜于搞成规模较大的集中成片的居民点.这样既有助于场址的安全,义可以避免大规模泥石流、滑坡、崩塌、山洪等山地火害发生时造成大量的人员伤亡.地震重灾区2008年的泥石流活动显示,龙门山及邻近的邛崃山等山区因汶川地震的影响,泥石流已进入强烈活动时期.其强烈活动时间,可能持续10～30 a,甚至更长.对此,要有足够的重视.在可能遭遇泥石流的区域开展的各种工程建设,一定要加强防范措施,防止泥石流危害.     

汶川地震灾后重建的岩土工程问题探讨

在对5·12汶川地震灾区大量次生地质灾害实地考察调查的基础上,总结了次生地质灾害发育分布的特点,探讨了灾后重建的岩土工程问题。此次地震引发的次生地质灾害主要有崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、堰塞湖等;次生地质灾害的发育分布与地震烈度相一致,与断裂带密切相关,并形成崩塌、滑坡→泥石流或崩塌、滑坡→堰塞湖→泥石流灾害链。灾后重建必须注重建设场地工程地质条件的研究、科学规划选址,合理避让地质灾害高风险地段;对重点高陡边坡灾害须进行必要的岩土工程加固,山区建筑地基基础设计应符合相关要求,要尽量减少对地质环境的扰动,预防工程诱发灾害。研究结果可为灾区岩土工程减灾防灾以及灾后重建提供参考。     

Unreported fishing, hungry people and political turmoil: the recipe for a food security crisis in Madagascar?

Madagascar, the world's fourth largest island, is one of the world's poorest developing countries, and its people depend heavily on marine resources for subsistence and income. Exports of these resources and foreign fishing access agreements are also important, at least from a large-scale economic perspective. In recent years, concerns have been voiced amongst local fishers and industry groups regarding the growth of the country's fishing effort. Despite these concerns, existing knowledge of the scale, composition and trends of Malagasy fisheries remains poor, and there is negligible information regarding unreported catches and illegal fishing in Madagascar's waters. Small-scale fisheries, which are often substantial in developing countries such as Madagascar, are often unreported or underestimated. Unfortunately, fisheries legislations, management plans and foreign fishing access agreements are often influenced by these incomplete data, leading to serious over-estimations of resource availability. This also appears to be the situation in Madagascar, where the reconstruction of total catches by all Malagasy fisheries sectors conducted here showed that total catches between 1950 and 2008 were twice the volume reported by national fisheries agencies. Most importantly, much of the subsistence sector is missing from official statistics, and signs of decline have already been observed in several stocks, suggesting that current levels of catches are likely to be exceeding sustainable yields. This has profound implications for the economic and ecological sustainability of fisheries, as well as food security in a country where people rely heavily on the ocean for their daily protein needs and livelihoods.     

高原湖泊中萝卜螺属壳体研究现状及展望

湖泊的古水文及古水化学重建是湖泊研究领域最具挑战性的工作之一。在湖泊、河湖相及高湖面沉积物中,萝卜螺属壳体化石广泛分布;而且现生萝卜螺属亦广泛地分布于全球的湖泊及河流。这些生物碳酸盐(文石)壳体成为一种潜在的和高分辨率的环境信息记录载体。近年来,萝卜螺属的生境及其壳体的稳定碳氧同位素和元素已经逐步被用于了解青藏高原及其他地区的古水文、古水化学和古气候的信息。然而,在萝卜螺属壳体如何记录其宿生水体的古水文、古水化学等信息,以及如何基于萝卜螺属壳体化石重建古环境等方面,仍有许多科学问题有待探索。本文在前人研究的基础上,侧重在作为环境信息载体的萝卜螺属的分类体系、生境研究及其应用和壳体指标(δ¹³C_shell,δ¹⁸O_shell,⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr,Sr/Ca和Mg/Ca)特征及其在环境重建中的应用等方面进行总结和展望。     

Precipitation reconstruction using ring-width chronology of himalayan cedar from western himalaya: Preliminary results

Himalayan cedar (Cedrus deodara (D. Don) G. Don) due to its long age and wide ecological amplitude in the Himalayan region has strong dendroclimatic potential. A well replicated ring-width chronology of it, derived from the ensemble of tree-ring samples of two adjacent homogeneous sites, has been used to reconstruct precipitation for the non-monsoon months (previous year October to concurrent May) back to AD 1171. This provides the first record of hydrological conditions for the western Himalayan region, India during the whole of the ‘Little Ice Age’ and latter part of the ‘Medieval Warm Period’. The reconstruction revealed the wettest and the driest non-monsoon months during the fourteenth and the thirteenth centuries, respectively. The seventeenth century consistently recorded dry non-monsoon months in the western Himalayan region. Surplus precipitation, especially more pronounced since the 1950s, is recorded in the current century.     

大间距地震数据重建方法研究

介绍了一种基于稀疏约束最小二乘方法的大间距地震道数据重建方法,通过对大间距地震数据空间加滑动窗口,对每个窗口的数据结果采用预测误差算子计算加权系数进行加权叠加处理而得到空道的结果,通过试验表明,该方法能够用来进行大间距地震道数据的重建.     

轻小型无人机在房屋建筑结构类型调查中的应用

房屋建筑结构数据是了解房屋抗震设防能力的基础,获取房屋建筑结构信息具有重要的现实意义。本文在简单介绍无人机遥感系统、房屋建筑信息无人机遥感调查技术流程的基础上,以全国多地多架次飞行任务为应用实例,对无人机照片进行筛选、姿态匹配、照片拼接、纹理映射等处理,获取了房屋建筑密集区的正射镶嵌图和三维场景模型,然后对房屋建筑结构类型进行目视判读,并与地面调查的真实结果比对分析,计算得到目视判读的准确率为91.17%,Kappa系数为0.80。结果表明,轻小型无人机轻便灵活,获取的三维场景模型能有效、直观、准确地进行房屋建筑结构类型判定,可弥补传统实地调查的不足,为评估大范围建筑物的抗震能力提供重要的参考依据。