Seismically reactivated Hattian slide in Kashmir, Northern Pakistan

The Pakistan 2005 earthquake, of magnitude 7.6, caused severe damage on landscape and infrastructure, in addition to numerous casualties. The event reactivated Hattian Slide, creating a rock avalanche in a location where earlier mass movements had happened already, as indicated by satellite imagery and ground investigation. The slide originated on Dana Hill, in the upper catchment area of Hattian on Karli Stream, a tributary of Jhelum River, Pakistan, and buried the hamlet Dandbeh and several farms nearby. A natural dam accumulated, impounding two lakes, the larger one threatening parts of downstream Hattian Village with flooding. An access road and artificial spillways needed to be constructed in very short time to minimize the flooding risk. As shown by this example, when pointing out the risk of large-scale damage to population and infrastructure by way of hazard indication maps of seismically active regions, and preparing for alleviation of that risk, it is advisable to consider the complete Holocene history of the slopes involved.     

Petrography and uplift history of the Quaternary Takidani Granodiorite: could it have hosted a supercritical (HDR) geothermal reservoir?

The Quaternary Takidani Granodiorite (Japan Alps) is analogous to the type of deep-seated (3–5 km deep) intrusive-hosted fracture network system that might support (supercritical) hot dry/wet rock (HDR/HWR) energy extraction. The I-type Takidani Granodiorite comprises: porphyritic granodiorite, porphyritic granite, biotite-hornblende granodiorite, hornblende-biotite granodiorite, biotite-hornblende granite and biotite granite facies; the intrusion has a reverse chemical zonation, characterized by >70 wt% SiO₂ at its inferred margin and <67 wt% SiO₂ at the core. Fluid inclusion evidence indicates that fractured Takidani Granodiorite at one time hosted a liquid-dominated, convective hydrothermal system, with <380°C, low-salinity reservoir fluids at hydrostatic (mesothermal) pressure conditions. ‘Healed’ microfractures also trapped >600°C, hypersaline (35 wt% NaCl_eq) fluids of magmatic origin, with inferred minimum pressures of formation being 600–750 bar, which corresponds to fluid entrapment at 2.4–3.0 km depth. Al-in-hornblende geobarometry indicates that hornblende crystallization occurred at about 1.45 Ma (7.7–9.4 km depth) in the (marginal) eastern Takidani Granodiorite, but later (at 1.25 Ma) and shallower (6.5–7.0 km) near the core of the intrusion. The average rate of uplift across the Takidani Granodiorite from the time of hornblende crystallization has been 5.1–5.9 mm/yr (although uplift was about 7.5 mm/yr prior to 1.2 Ma), which is faster than average uplift rates in the Japan Alps (3 mm/yr during the last 2 million years). A temperature–depth–time window, when the Takidani Granodiorite had potential to host an HDR system, would have been when the internal temperature of the intrusive was cooling from 500°C to 400°C. Taking into account the initial (7.5 mm/yr) rate of uplift and effects of erosion, an optimal temperature–time–depth window is proposed: for 500°C at 1.54–1.57 Ma and 5.2±0.9 km (drilling) depth; and 400°C at 1.36–1.38 Ma and 3.3±0.8 km (drilling) depth, which is within the capabilities of modern drilling technologies, and similar to measured temperature–depth profiles in other active hydrothermal systems (e.g. at Kakkonda, Japan).     

Auswirkungen des Ablassens von Hochwasserrückhaltebecken auf deren Limnochemie und Phytoplankton-Biozönose

Reservoirs have to be released when repairing of the dams is necessary. In 1995, two reservoirs in Baden-Württemberg (Germany) of similar age and volume (Lake Herrenbach near Göppingen, 1.0 Mio. m³ and Lake Breitenau near Heilbronn, 2.3 Mio. m³) were emptied. This allowed the singular possibility to investigate the effects of drainage and refilling on the limnochemistry and the phytoplankton biocoenosis of such artificial lakes.Before the drainage of the reservoirs, both lakes showed phosphorus release from the sediment during summer stagnation. Phosphorus values of Lake Herrenbach were regularly higher than those of Lake Breitenau (Lake Herrenbach 88 μg/l, Lake Breitenau 33 μg/l). During release, both lakes indicated higher phosphorus and chlorophyll concentrations as well as rising biomasses. Remarkable differences were observed during refilling of the reservoirs: while Lake Herrenbach showed higher transparency and lower phosphorus concentrations, Lake Breitenau progressed towards eutrophication (total phosphorus during summer 1996: Lake Herrenbach 30 μg/l, Lake Breitenau 55 μg/l). One reason for the reaction of Lake Breitenau was the reduced ground drainage during the refilling, which caused an accumulation of nutrients in the hypolimnion. Another reason was the mineralisation of vegetation which covered great parts of the dry lake sediment. The limnological change of Lake Herrenbach was not as clear but could be caused by the restauration of the pre-reservoir which was drainaged and dredged before the emptying of the main reservoir started as well as many other facts which differed Lake Herrenbach from Lake Breitenau.     

禁渔初期鄱阳湖流域柘林水库鱼类资源时空分布格局及影响因子

为了解长江十年禁渔初期鄱阳湖流域柘林水库鱼类资源时空分布格局及其影响因子,于2020年9月(秋季)、12月(冬季)和2021年4月(春季)、7月(夏季),采用渔获物抽样和水声学探测相结合的方法对柘林水库鱼类群落和资源密度的时空动态进行调查,并利用广义可加模型(generalized additive model, GAM)识别了影响鱼类资源变化的关键因子。调查期间共采集鱼类5目12科36属54种,鲤形目鱼类占比最高为70.38%,鳙(Hypophthalmichthys nobilis)、(Hemiculter leucisculus)和黄尾鲴(Xenocypris davidi)为优势种。水声学探测结果表明,鱼类密度(ind./1000 m³)具有明显的时空异质性,春、夏季(10.42±17.57和16.34±11.89)显著高于秋、冬季(2.74±3.33和2.02±5.07),中游(3.18±4.76)则显著低于上、下游(11.20±15.66和5.37±9.33)。GAM模型对鱼类密度的总偏差解释率为84.6%,其中经纬度、季节、叶绿素a浓度和溶解氧对鱼类密度的影响效应显著,水深和总氮的影响不显著。鱼类主要分布在29.12°~29.30°N,115.05°~115.15°E区域,显著影响鱼类分布的溶解氧和叶绿素a浓度范围分别为9~12 mg/L和5~15 μg/L。柘林水库鱼类呈现小型化趋势,为维护生态系统稳定性和鱼类多样性,后续需加强对鱼类群落结构和时空分布格局影响的机制方面的相关研究。     

Daily reservoir inflow forecasting using artificial neural networks with stopped training approach

In this paper, an early stopped training approach (STA) is introduced to train multi-layer feed-forward neural networks (FNN) for real-time reservoir inflow forecasting. The proposed method takes advantage of both Levenberg–Marquardt Backpropagation (LMBP) and cross-validation technique to avoid underfitting or overfitting on FNN training and enhances generalization performance. The methodology is assessed using multivariate hydrological time series from Chute-du-Diable hydrosystem in northern Quebec (Canada). The performance of the model is compared to benchmarks from a statistical model and an operational conceptual model. Since the ultimate goal concerns the real-time forecast accuracy, overall the results show that the proposed method is effective for improving prediction accuracy. Moreover it offers an alternative when dynamic adaptive forecasting is desired.     

THE RIVER CHANNEL ADJUSTMENT AS INFLUENCED BY THE FLOODPLAIN GEOECOSYSTEM： AN EXAMPLE FROM THE HONGSHAN RESERVOIR

ＴＨＥＲＩＶＥＲＣＨＡＮＮＥＬＡＤＪＵＳＴＭＥＮＴＡＳＩＮＦＬＵＥＮＣＥＤＢＹＴＨＥＦＬＯＯＤＰＬＡＩＮＧＥＯＥＣＯＳＹＳＴＥＭ：ＡＮＥＸＡＭＰＬＥＦＲＯＭＴＨＥＨＯＮＧＳＨＡＮＲＥＳＥＲＶＯＩＲ￥ＸＵＪｉｏｎｇｘｉｎ；ＳＨＩＣｈａｎｇｘｉｎｇ（Ｐｒ...     

大化水库地震分析

大化水库自1983年蓄水后出现频繁的微弱地震,延续时间达7年,最大震为Ms1.7级,地震系列属震群型,初步判断属水库诱发地震。由于库区有活动断层且岩溶发育,地震诱发机制可能为断层孔隙水压力效应或岩液塌陷。从地震发展趋势分析,目前已处于衰减程过,预测今后不会有强震发生。     

松辽盆地南部扶余油层砂岩成岩作用研究——以扶余油田和新立油田为例

对松辽盆地南部扶余油田和新立油田扶余油层砂岩岩石学特征和各成岩作用类型进行了细致分析,研究表明,扶余油田和新立油田的扶余油层主要类型分别为长石砂岩和长石岩屑砂岩,并经历了中等压实作用、自生石英胶结作用、自生粘土矿物胶结作用、碳酸盐胶结作用、交代和溶解作用等,达到晚成岩阶段A2亚期.该油层砂岩中碳酸盐胶结物主要为成岩早期的产物,当碳酸盐胶结物含量大于8%时,直接影响岩石的机械压实作用和油层的孔隙度.扶余油田扶余油层砂岩中长石含量相比新立油田高,可能导致该地区扶余油层砂岩的交代和溶解作用相对发育,从而抑制其内石英颗粒的次生加大,并形成高含量的自生高岭石,及因长石溶解所至的两个自生高岭石峰值特征等.     

Siltation analysis in the Neyyar reservoir and forest degradation in its catchment: a study from Kerala state, India

 Impact of catchment erosion and the resultant reservoir siltation from a tropical environment is reported here to discuss the effect of a reservoir in the natural degradation of an evergreen-forested segment. While an area of 8.01 km² has been affected by direct inundation at the full reservoir level, another 2.6 km² area once under thick forest cover, had also lost its identity over the last 38 years by indirect degradation. This zone mainly falls in the confluence of tributaries, namely Neyyar and Mullayar, with the reservoir. The capacity of the reservoir was found to be reduced by 28.8 Mm³ during this period and the annual average loss is calculated as 0.75 Mm³ (0.71%), indicating the intensity of erosion from the catchment zone. In case the proposed upper dam in the reservoir comes into existence, an additional area of 2.4 km² from the virgin forest would be submerged and more area would face degradation around the inundated zone. Received: 29 July 1998 · Accepted: 16 November 1998     

Flood season segmentation based on the probability change-point analysis technique

Abstract

The segmentation of flood seasons has both theoretical and practical importance in hydrological sciences and water resources management. The probability change-point analysis technique is applied to segmenting a defined flood season into a number of sub-seasons. Two alternative sampling methods, annual maximum and peaks-over-threshold, are used to construct the new flow series. The series is assumed to follow the binomial distribution and is analysed with the probability change-point analysis technique. A Monte Carlo experiment is designed to evaluate the performance of proposed flood season segmentation models. It is shown that the change-point based models for flood season segmentation can rationally partition a flood season into appropriate sub-seasons. China's new Three Gorges Reservoir, located on the upper Yangtze River, was selected as a case study since a hydrological station with observed flow data from 1882 to 2003 is located 40 km downstream of the dam. The flood season of the reservoir can be reasonably divided into three sub-seasons: the pre-flood season (1 June–2 July); the main flood season (3 July–10 September); and the post-flood season (11–30 September). The results of flood season segmentation and the characteristics of flood events are reasonable for this region.

Citation Liu, P., Guo, S., Xiong, L. & Chen, L. (2010) Flood season segmentation based on the probability change-point analysis technique. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 540–554.