淮河息县站流量概率预报模型研究

应用美国天气局采用的由Roman Krzysztofowicz开发的贝叶斯统计理论建立概率水文预报理论框架，即以分布函数形式定量地描述水文预报不确定度，研究了淮河息县站流量概率预报模型。理论和经验表明，概率预报至少与确定性预报一样有价值，特别当预报不确定度较大时，概率预报比现行确定性预报具有更高的经济价值。     

国外国土开发整治与规划的经验及启示

本文简要回顾了20世纪以来国外国土开发整治与规划的过程，总结了国外在国土规划方面取得的经验：即国土规划的权威性、系统性、针对性、可操作性、实效性和参与性等特点。在此基础上，结合我国国情，针对当前面临的形势，提出发展和完善我国国土规划的基本思路：重视国土规划；将国土规划纳入规范化、法制化的轨道；强化国土规划的系统调控和管理等。     

Determining the maximum degree of harmonic coefficients in geopotential models by Monte Carlo methods

Random errors for the harmonic coefficients of a geopotential model are generated from the matrix of normal equations by a parallel computer applying the Gibbs sampler. This leads to random values for the harmonic coefficients. They are transformed by nonlinear, quadratic transformations to random values for the square roots of degree variances, of mean squares of geoid undulations and gravity anomalies. The expected values of these quantities are not equal to the values of these quantities computed by the estimated harmonic coefficients, due to correlations and errors in the estimation. By hypothesis tests estimated harmonic coefficients distorted by correlations and errors are detected. Applying the tests to the geopotential model ITG-CHAMP01 of the Institute of Theoretical Geodesy in Bonn it is concluded that above the degree 62 the harmonic coefficients cannot add any information to the geopotential model.     

Asia–Europe–United States: the geoeconomics of uncertainty

This paper examines a key aspect of how the global geometries of finance and trade articulate the euro–dollar relationship. Here, European integration extends into a global financial and trading system replete with contradictions. The paper examines these, drawing upon a literature from international political economy, foregrounding the spatialities that they signal.     

Impact of human activity on the estuary of the Qiantang River and the reclamation of tidal flats and river regulation

The swing of the main channel of the Qiantang River is controlled by the high-water and low-water changes in the river, as well as the impact of large-scale reclamation of tidal flats. Its evolution in modern times is the result of the combined functions of natural and man-made factors. This paper analyzes the cause of the formation of the South Channel and Xisan Tidal Furrow and proposes the regulation principle of “To regulate the river and reclaim tidal flats by taking the advantage of local topography”. It is suggested to cut off the South Channel and Xisan Tidal Furrow completely to restrict the swing of the main channel and to increase the reclamation area of the tidal flat at the same time.     

北方农牧交错带退耕还林还草经济政策优化调控

退耕还林还草作为北方农牧交错带生态重建的切入点,在实际操作中也不可避免地存在一定的问题。文章对当前退耕还林还草的社会经济特征、政策安排、协调机制及制约因素进行了分析。提出:区域粮食适度自给定位、部门协调机制创新、产权制度改革、区域产业专业化分工、适度生态移民及建立生态补偿机制为进行政策优化调控的主要途径。     

Metrics to assess how longitudinal channel network connectivity and in‐stream Atlantic salmon habitats are impacted by hydropower regulation

Habitat fragmentation in channel networks and riverine ecosystems is increasing globally due to the construction of barriers and river regulation. The resulting divergence from the natural state poses a threat to ecosystem integrity. Consequently, a trade‐off is required between the conservation of biodiversity in channel networks and socio‐economic factors including power generation, potable water supplies, fisheries, and tourism. Many of Scotland's rivers are regulated for hydropower generation but also support populations of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) that have high economic and conservation value. This paper investigates the use of connectivity metrics and weightings to assess the impact of river barriers (impoundments) associated with hydropower regulation on natural longitudinal channel connectivity for Atlantic salmon. We applied 2 different weighting approaches in the connectivity models that accounted for spatial variability in habitat quality for spawning and fry production and contrasted these models with a more traditional approach using wetted area. Assessments of habitat loss using the habitat quality weighted models contrasted with those using the less biologically relevant wetted area. This highlights the importance of including relevant ecological and hydrogeomorphic information in assessing regulation impacts on natural channel connectivity. Specifically, we highlight scenarios where losing a smaller area of productive habitat can have a larger impact on Atlantic salmon than losing a greater area of less suitable habitat. It is recommended that future channel connectivity assessments should attempt to include biologically relevant weightings, rather than relying on simpler metrics like wetted area which can produce misleading assessments of barrier impacts.     

Estimation of daily stream water temperatures with a Bayesian regression approach

Stream water temperature plays a significant role in aquatic ecosystems where it controls many important biological and physical processes. Reliable estimates of water temperature at the daily time step are critical in managing water resources. We developed a parsimonious piecewise Bayesian model for estimating daily stream water temperatures that account for temporal autocorrelation and both linear and nonlinear relationships with air temperature and discharge. The model was tested at 8 climatically different basins of the USA and at 34 sites within the mountainous Boise River Basin (Idaho, USA). The results show that the proposed model is robust with an average root mean square error of 1.25 °C and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.92 over a 2‐year period. Our approach can be used to predict historic daily stream water temperatures in any location using observed daily stream temperature and regional air temperature data.     

Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin,Kenya

Recent hydro‐climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35 × 10⁶ m³ year^?1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.