宁夏川区强对流天气雷达判别及预报指标检验

利用回归概率法和x2 检验法分门别类建立判别宁夏川区强对流天气的类型 ,找出了一些直观、简便、可行的预报指标 ,并用历史资料进行检验 ,得到了一些有规律性的结论 ,对作好预报服务工作有一定的实用价值     

动态系统的抗差Kaliman滤波

离散历元的动态观测量及其相应的动态模型可能存在异常，若数据处理模型不考虑对这些异常的特别处理，则动态模型参数估值及其所提供的动态信息将极不可靠。基于贝叶斯统计和抗差估计原理，我们构造了一种抗差滤波算法。该算法考虑观测分布和参数验前分布均为污染分布。并利用一个实测网验算该算法和模型的可靠性。     

Statistical estimation of maximum peak ground acceleration at a given point of a seismic region

A straightforward procedure is suggested for statistical estimation of maximum peak ground acceleration, A_max (T), that will occur at a given point of a seismic region in future time period T. This procedure is based on the Bayesian approach and includes estimation of three unknown parameters;b, the slope of acceleration-frequency law; , the maximum regression acceleration; , the rate of significant accelerations at the point under question. Uncertainty characteristics of A_max (T)-estimates as well as of all estimated parameters are given. The suggested approach is illustrated for two sites in Southern California.     

山东和邻区前兆震群综合判定指标的研究及其预报效能的评估

本文利用1970－1992年山东及邻区11次震群资料,对其单项及综合指标作了计算和研究,据《地震学分析预报方法程式指南》判断其前兆性。同时对前兆震与未来强震距离、间隔时间作了统计、并对其预报的成功率、虚报率、漏报率进行了贝叶斯估计。     

Bayesian inference for long-term prediction of significant wave height

This paper considers the problem of estimating long-term predictions of significant wave-height. A method which combines Bayesian methodology and extreme value techniques is adopted. Inferences are based on the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm implemented in an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme. The method is applied to obtain return values of extreme values of significant wave height collected on the northern North Sea. The results are compared with those obtained by Guedes Soares and Scotto [Guedes Soares, C. and Scotto, M.G., 2004. Application of the r-order statistics for long-term predictions of significant wave heights. Coastal Engineering, 51, 387–394].     

黄、东海春季水团的模糊判别分析

使用1987年5～6月黄、东海的调查资料,在水团多元模糊划分的基础上,引入了使用隶属函数的模糊判别分析,对海域中的11个水团模糊划分的有效性,给出了合理的判别方法,使水团的模糊分析增添了新的内容,得到了一些有益的结论。同时,简要地分析了各水团的分布与特征。