同生还是后生?——热液矿床成因研究中争论的焦点问题

秦岭地区钠长角砾岩型矿床、广西大厂锡多金属矿床、广东长坑金银矿床和广东大沟谷金矿床的成因长期存在着同生还是后生的争议.研究表明,这些矿床中的钠长石岩、硅质岩、重晶石岩、电气石岩不是热水沉积成因,而是后期流体结晶和热液交代形成,矿床不存在热水喷流同生沉积成矿作用.矿床成因研究应从多个方面综合考虑,野外宏观地质特征是基础,...     

Estimating Synaphobranchus kaupii densities: Contribution of fish behaviour to differences between bait experiments and visual strip transects

Kaup's arrowtooth eel Synaphobranchus kaupii is a small-bodied fish and an abundant inhabitant of the European continental slope. To estimate its local density video information using the remotely operated vehicle (ROV) Victor 6000 were collected at three locations in the Bay of Biscay slope. Two methods for estimating local densities were tested: strip transect counts and bait experiments. For bait experiments three behaviour types were observed in about equal proportions for individuals arriving near the seafloor: moving up the current towards the ROV, moving across the current and drifting with the current. Visible attraction towards the bait was the highest for individuals swimming against the current (80%) and about equally low for the other two types (around 30%); it did not depend on current speed nor temperature. Three main innovations were introduced for estimating population densities from bait experiments: (i) inclusion of an additional behaviour category—that of passively drifting individuals, (ii) inclusion of reaction behaviour for actively swimming individuals and (iii) a hierarchical Bayesian estimation framework. The results indicated that about half of individuals were foraging actively of which less than one third reacted on encountering the bait plume and the other half were drifting with the current. Taking account of drifting individuals and the reaction probability made density estimates from bait experiments and strip transects more similar.     

Bayesian techniques for seismic hazard assessment using imprecise data

Some Bayesian methods of dealing with inaccurate or vague data are introduced in the framework of seismic hazard assessment. Inaccurate data affected by heterogeneous errors are modeled by a probability distribution instead of the usual value plus a random error representation; these data are generically called imprecise. The earthquake size and the number of events in a certain time are modeled as imprecise data. Imprecise data allow us to introduce into the estimation procedures the uncertainty inherent in the inaccuracy and heterogeneity of the measuring systems from which the data were obtained. The problem of estimating the parameter of a Poisson process is shown to be feasible by the use of Bayesian techniques and imprecise data. This background technique can be applied to a general problem of seismic hazard estimation. Initially, data in a regional earthquake catalog are assumed imprecise both in size and location (i.e errors in the epicenter or spreading over a given source). By means of scattered attenuation laws, the regional catalog can be translated into a so-called site catalog of imprecise events. The site catalog is then used to estimate return periods or occurrence probabilities, taking into account all sources of uncertainty. Special attention is paid to priors in the Bayesian estimation. They can be used to introduce additional information as well as scattered frequency-size laws for local events. A simple example is presented to illustrate the capabilities of this methodology.     

Generalized maximum-likelihood estimation of variance–covariance components with non-informative prior

 A new estimator of variance–covariance components is presented. The proposed estimator is derived by applying the principle of maximum-likelihood estimation to the posterior probability density function for the case when no prior information is available. Received: 9 August 1999 / Accepted: 10 November 2000     

基于Fisher判别准则的逐步判别方法及其应用

本文在遵循Fisher判别准则的基础上，提出了一种二级逐步判别的新方法，并应用于云南省五月雨量的预报中。理论分析和实际应用结果表明，此新方法具有理想的历史回报率和良好的处理预报能力。     

Seismic hazard assessment in TERESA test areas based on a Bayesian technique

A method based on Bayesian techniques has been applied to evaluate the seismic hazard in the two test areas selected by the participants in the ESC/SC8-TERESA project: Sannio-Matese in Italy and the northern Rhine region (BGN). A prior site occurrence model (prior SOM) is obtain from a seismicity distribution modeled in wide seismic sources. The posterior occurrence model (posterior SOM) is calculated after a Bayesian correction which, basically, recovers the spatial information of the epicenter distribution and considers attenuation and location errors, not using source zones. The uncertainties of the occurrence probabilities are evaluated in both models.The results are displayed in terms of probability and variation coefficient contour maps for a chosen intensity level, and with plots of mean return period versus intensity in selected test sites, including the 90% probability intervals.It turns out that the posterior SOM gives a better resolution in the probability estimate, decreasing its uncertainty, especially in low seismic activity regions.     

构造岩浆判别的地球化学方法及其讨论

本文概述了构造岩浆判别的地球化学原理和制图的基本原则,综述了近年来这一研究领域的新进展,强调在判别时应紧密结合地质实际,并注重数据的精度、有效判别元素的选择和构造环境的双重性,这种方法适用于元古代火山岩的判别,认为利用多重元素的丰度比值蛛网图和岩石特征类型的专家系统来进行构造岩浆判别是行之有效的。