Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to theex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971–1988.     

Rainfall estimation using raingages and radar — A Bayesian approach: 1. Derivation of estimators

Procedures for estimating rainfall from radar and raingage observations are constructed in a Bayesian framework. Given that the number of raingage measurements is typically very small, mean and variance of gage rainfall are treated as uncertain parameters. Under the assumption that log gage rainfall and log radar rainfall are jointly multivariate normal, the estimation problem is equivalent to lognormal co-kriging with uncertain mean and variance of the gage rainfall field.The posterior distribution is obtained under the assumption that the prior for the mean and inverse of the variance of log gage rainfall is normal-gamma 2. Estimate and estimation variance do not have closed-form expressions, but can be easily evaluated by numerically integrating two single integrals. To reduce computational burden associated with evaluating sufficient statistics for the likelihood function, an approximate form of parameter updating is given. Also, as a further approximation, the parameters are updated using raingage measurements only, yielding closed-form expressions for estimate and estimation variance in the Gaussian domain.     

研究岩溶发育的化学热力学方法及判别程序

在吸收化学热力学新的研究成果的基础上，编制了化学热力学方法研究岩溶发育状况的计算机程序，介绍了判别程序的总体设计及主要功能，并应用程序对平顶山矿区寒武纪灰岩岩溶发育特征进行了计算和分析。     

库松木切克组与呼独克达坂组的地球化学特征及划分对比

通过元素含量特征值、地球化学曲线及两类判别分析等三种地球化学研究方法，建立了区分库松木切克组与呼独克达坂组的直接地球化学标志，为1：5万区域地质调查区分易被混淆的相似地层或地质体提供了一种行之有效的方法，可作为划分对比地层的依据之一；同时为区域地质构造演化提供了新的证据。     

非线性滤波方法与陆面数据同化

陆面数据同化研究近几年成为地球科学研究的新兴领域,其中以非线性滤波为代表的数据同化方法发展迅速并得到了广泛应用。在贝叶斯理论框架内,从递推贝叶斯估计理论的角度系统地分析了扩展卡尔曼滤波、无迹卡尔曼滤波、集合卡尔曼滤波、SIR粒子滤波等非线性滤波方法的异同;针对应用比较广泛的集合卡尔曼滤波和SIR粒子滤波应用中存在的问题,论述了几种提高滤波性能的实用方法,如协方差矩阵的Localization方法、协方差矩阵的Inflation方法、双集合卡尔曼滤波方法、扰动集合、扰动大气驱动和模型参数、平方根集合卡尔曼滤波以及粒子滤波算法的改进等。最后总结讨论了各种非线性滤波方法应用中的特点、难点以及各种算法在陆面数据同化中的应用前景和发展方向。     

一种引入隐藏节点的贝叶斯网络方法

针对简单贝叶斯分类器(NBC)中"天真"而又苛刻的的条件独立假设,本文结合Fisher准则提出了一种在贝叶斯网络中引入隐藏节点的方法,用来松弛或放宽这个过于严格而且不现实的假设条件。隐藏节点的引入可以更好地描述问题,进而更好地解决贝叶斯网络在分类中的应用。实验分析表明,本文提出的方法可以比NBC获得更高的分类精度和更好的稳定性。在训练样本不多的情况下,平均分类精度比PCA-NBC高3%之多。     

Utilization of Resourcesat-1 data for improved crop discrimination

Subsequent to the launch of the state-of-art third generation Indian Remote Sensing satellite, Resourcesat-1, studies have been conducted to understand the capabilities of the on-board sensors for crop discrimination. The paper discusses the unique capabilities of the AWiFS, LISS-III and LISS-IV sensors in terms of their dimensionality, radiometry and spatial resolutions for crop discrimination and monitoring. The studies have indicated better crop discriminability especially using the short wave infrared data in 1.55–1.70 μm data among the spectrally confusing land cover classes, attributed to the relative differences of water contents. 10-bit radiometry of AWiFS data in four bands has been observed to be a better discriminant. Intrafield variability was very well captured by the LISS-IV data revealing the potential of data for applications like precision farming. The studies have revealed that potential of Resourcesat-1 data becoming the workhorse for several agricultural applications.     

长江经济带空气质量指数的时空特征及驱动因素分析 ——基于贝叶斯空间计量模型的实证

基于2015年长江经济带126个城市空气质量监测数据,首先利用探索性空间数据分析方法揭示了空气质量指数（AQI）的时空演变特征,然后采用贝叶斯空间滞后模型探讨了长江经济带空气质量指数的社会经济驱动因素。研究结果表明：① 长江经济带年AQI在空间上整体具有东高西低,长江以北高长江以南低的分布特点,具有明显的空间集聚特征。空气污染严重的热点地区主要集中长三角城市群的江苏省、浙北地区、皖北大部分地区以及上海市。空气质量较好的冷点地区则主要集中在云南省、四川的攀枝花以及贵州的大部分地区。② 长江经济带AQI在季节上呈现冬春高、夏秋低的季节变化趋势。总体而言,四季的高值集聚主要分布在鄂皖苏,低值集聚主要分布在云贵地区。③ 贝叶斯空间滞后模型回归结果显示,长江经济带空气质量存在显著的空间溢出效应。此外,模型结果证实了“环境库兹涅兹曲线”假说;FDI回归系数为正,支持了“污染避难所”假说;人口密度、公路客运量均是导致空气污染加剧的重要因素,而第三产业比重和建成区绿化覆盖率增加有利于长江经济带空气质量的改善。