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81.
Abedalrazq F. Khalil Mac McKeeMariush Kemblowski Tirusew AsefaLuis Bastidas 《Advances in water resources》2006
Sparse learning machines provide a viable framework for modeling chaotic time-series systems. A powerful state-space reconstruction methodology using both support vector machines (SVM) and relevance vector machines (RVM) within a multiobjective optimization framework is presented in this paper. The utility and practicality of the proposed approaches have been demonstrated on the time series of the Great Salt Lake (GSL) biweekly volumes from 1848 to 2004. A comparison of the two methods is made based on their predictive power and robustness. The reconstruction of the dynamics of the Great Salt Lake volume time series is attained using the most relevant feature subset of the training data. In this paper, efforts are also made to assess the uncertainty and robustness of the machines in learning and forecasting as a function of model structure, model parameters, and bootstrapping samples. The resulting model will normally have a structure, including parameterization, that suits the information content of the available data, and can be used to develop time series forecasts for multiple lead times ranging from two weeks to several months. 相似文献
82.
塔河油田下奥陶统碳酸盐岩储层测井分类识别研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
塔河油田下奥陶统碳酸盐岩为一套缝洞发育的复杂储层,通过大量已知井的测井曲线与岩心分析数据对照观察、分析,归纳出了五种储层的电性分类识别标准。在此基础上,又利用自然伽玛(GR)、深浅侧向电阻率(Rd,Rs)、声波时差(AC)、密度(DEN)、中子孔隙度(CNL)的响应特征,建立了神经网络识别模型。通过在该区三十多口井的实际应用,取得了较好的效果。 相似文献
83.
84.
基于标点随机过程的遥感影像道路提取 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
在分析贝叶斯方法用于遥感影像目标提取技术的基础上.基于标点随机过程方法,利用线状地物的整体几何约束和地物之间的空间结构及相关关系对目标构建数学模型.提取线状地物.并以道路网的自动提取为例,详细阐述了此算法。 相似文献
85.
The inequality-constrained least squares (ICLS) problem can be solved by the simplex algorithm of quadratic programming. The ICLS problem may also be reformulated as a Bayesian problem and solved by using the Bayesian principle. This paper proposes using the aggregate constraint method of non-linear programming to solve the ICLS problem by converting many inequality constraints into one equality constraint, which is a basic augmented Lagrangean algorithm for deriving the solution to equality-constrained non-linear programming problems. Since the new approach finds the active constraints, we can derive the approximate algorithm-dependent statistical properties of the solution. As a result, some conclusions about the superiority of the estimator can be approximately made. Two simulated examples are given to show how to compute the approximate statistical properties and to show that the reasonable inequality constraints can improve the results of geodetic network with an ill-conditioned normal matrix. 相似文献
86.
A case for a reassessment of the risks of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean 总被引:2,自引:3,他引:2
S. A. Sisson L. R. Pericchi S. G. Coles 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,20(4):296-306
There is an urgent need for the development and implementation of modern statistical methodology for long-term risk assessment of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean. Notwithstanding the inevitable scarcity of data relating to extreme events, recent results and approaches call into question standard methods of estimation of the risks of environmental catastrophes that are currently adopted. Estimation of extreme hazards is often based on the Gumbel model and on crude methods for estimating predictive probabilities. In both cases the result is often a remarkable underestimation of the predicted probabilities for disasters of large magnitude. Simplifications do not stop here: assumptions of data homogeneity and temporal independence are usually made regardless of potential inconsistencies with genuine process behaviour and the fact that results may be sensitive to such mis-specifications. These issues are of particular relevance for the Caribbean, given its exposure to diverse meteorological climate conditions.In this article we present an examination of predictive methodologies for the assessment of long-term risks of hydrological hazards, with particular focus on applications to rainfall and flooding, motivated by three data sets from the Caribbean region. Consideration is given to classical and Bayesian methods of inference for annual maxima and daily peaks-over-threshold models. We also examine situations where data non-homogeneity is compromised by an unknown seasonal structure, and the situation in which the process under examination has a physical upper limit. We highlight the fact that standard Gumbel analyses routinely assign near-zero probability to subsequently observed disasters, and that for San Juan, Puerto Rico, standard 100-year predicted rainfall estimates may be routinely underestimated by a factor of two. 相似文献
87.
Identification method of weak seismic phases on the basis of wavelet packet transform 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Xi-Qiang Liui Hui-Lan Zhou Zhi-Zhen Zheng Ping Shen Xuan-Hui Yang Yan-Lu Ma 《地震学报(英文版)》1998,11(4):431-439
This paper describes a sort of new method identifying seismic phase by the name of wavelet packet transform. Perfectness and
development of the wavelet packet transform is based upon the idea of its multiscale analysis. The method of wavelet packet
transform can depict the anomalous changes information of transient spectra of seismic wave onset, and come true the target
of identifying seismic phase especially weak seismic phase. Then this paper presents discriminating examples of simulating
digital signals and actual seismic phase. Compared with conventional seismic phase discrimination, studied results show that
the wavelet packet transform method is an available tool of weak signal analyses, and have unexampled merits and attractive
application foreground.
This research gets hold of Higher School Doctor Scientific Research Foundation (No. 157 WJ0704 9435611) and supported by the
National Natural Science Foundation (No. 49474211). 相似文献
88.
Differences between statistical unertainty and modeling uncertainty are briefly discussed. It is pointed out that, when different models are proposed for the interpretation of reality, the uncertainty cannot be described in terms of mean value and coefficient of variation. The important question is: which of the proposed models is more reliable than the others? The attention, then, is concentrated on the comparison between different models proposed for the estimate of the required quantity, looking for a criterion leading to the selection of the most reliable one. A criterion for comparison of different models is suggested. In the example of application considered in this paper, it proved to be effective, so that the continuation of numerical experiments, exploring different and more complex situations, seems promising. 相似文献
89.
Studies have illustrated the performance of at-site and regional flood quantile estimators. For realistic generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions and short records, a simple index-flood quantile estimator performs better than two-parameter (2P) GEV quantile estimators with probability weighted moment (PWM) estimation using a regional shape parameter and at-site mean and L-coefficient of variation (L-CV), and full three-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimators. However, as regional heterogeneity or record lengths increase, the 2P-estimator quickly dominates. This paper generalizes the index flood procedure by employing regression with physiographic information to refine a normalized T-year flood estimator. A linear empirical Bayes estimator uses the normalized quantile regression estimator to define a prior distribution which is employed with the normalized 2P-quantile estimator. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that this empirical Bayes estimator does essentially as well as or better than the simpler normalized quantile regression estimator at sites with short records, and performs as well as or better than the 2P-estimator at sites with longer records or smaller L-CV. 相似文献
90.
The soil freeze–thaw controls the hydrological and carbon cycling and thus affects water and energy exchanges at land surface. This article reported a newly developed algorithm for distinguishing the freeze/thaw status of surface soil. The algorithm was based on information from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Enhanced (AMSR‐E) which records brightness temperature (Tb) in the afternoon and after midnight. The criteria and discriminant functions were obtained from both radiometer observations and model simulations. First of all, the microwave radiation from freeze–thaw soil was examined by carrying out experimental measurements at 18·7 and 36·5 GHz using a Truck‐mounted Multi‐frequency Microwave Radiometer (TMMR) in the Heihe River of China. The experimental results showed that the soil moisture is a key component that differentiates the microwave radiation behaviours during the freeze–thaw process, and the differences in soil temperature and emissivity between frozen and thawed soils were found to be the most important criteria. Secondly, a combined model was developed to consider the impacts of complex ground surface conditions on the discrimination. The model simulations quite followed the trend of in situ observations with an overall relation coefficient (R) of approximately 0·88. Finally, the ratio of Tb18·7H (horizontally polarized Tb at 18·7 GHz) to Tb36·5V was considered primarily as the quasi‐emissivity, which is more reasonable and explicit in measuring the microwave radiation changes in soil freezing and thawing than the spectral gradient. By combining Tb36·5V to indicate the soil temperature variety, a Fisher linear discrimination analysis was used to establish the discriminant functions. After being corrected by TMMR measurements, the new discriminant algorithm had an overall accuracy of 86% when validated by 4‐cm soil temperature. The multi‐year discriminant results also provided a good agreement with the classification map of frozen ground in China. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献