Anthropogenic land-use signals propagate through stream food webs in a California,USA, watershed

Human development of watersheds can change aquatic ecosystems via multiple pathways. For instance, human rural development may add nutrients to ecosystems. We used naturally occurring stable isotopes in stream food webs to investigate how land use affects stream ecosystems across a gradient of land development in the San Lorenzo watershed, California. Road density was used as a proxy for land development. We found that streams in watersheds with higher road densities had elevated concentrations of phosphate and nitrate. Furthermore, algal δ¹⁵N values increased as a function of nitrate concentration, but saturated at approximately 6‰. This saturating pattern was consistent with a two-source mixing model with anthropogenic and watershed sources, fit using Bayesian model fitting. In sites that had >2.6 km roads km⁻², anthropogenic sources of N were estimated to represent >90% of the N pool. This anthropogenic N signal was propagated to stream consumers: rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), signal crayfish (Pacifasticus leniusculus), and benthic invertebrate δ¹⁵N were positively correlated with algal δ¹⁵N. Even relatively low density rural human land use may have substantial impacts on nutrient cycling of stream ecosystems.     

中国西部地区利用烈度数据估计地震动参数的方法

通过最近收集到的中国西部地区的6次地震的地震动参数和烈度数据,建立了该地区适用于贝叶斯方法的各烈度档P(I|GM)的经验分布。利用2011年发生的四川炉霍地震和新疆伽师地震资料验证了依据烈度数据用贝叶斯方法估算峰值加速度的可行性。研究结果还表明,用贝叶斯方法估计的参数精度与选择的先验概率(衰减关系)显著相关。针对这2次地震,用各烈度档地震动参数的均值法、地震动衰减关系法及贝叶斯法3种方法估算的峰值加速度值与峰值加速度观测值之间的均方根比较表明,用贝叶斯方法估算的参数精度优于用另2种方法所获结果。     

Copula models for frequency analysis what can be learned from a Bayesian perspective?

Large spring floods in the Québec region exhibit correlated peakflow, duration and volume. Consequently, traditional univariate hydrological frequency analyses must be complemented by multivariate probabilistic assessment to provide a meaningful design flood level as requested in hydrological engineering (based on return period evaluation of a single quantity of interest). In this paper we study 47 years of a peak/volume dataset for the Romaine River with a parametric copula model. The margins are modeled with a normal or gamma distribution and the dependence is depicted through a parametric family of copulas (Arch 12 or Arch 14). Parameter joint inference and model selection are performed under the Bayesian paradigm. This approach enlightens specific features of interest for hydrological engineering: (i) cross correlation between margin parameters are stronger than expected , (ii) marginal distributions cannot be forgotten in the model selection process and (iii) special attention must be addressed to model validation as far as extreme values are of concern.     

基于地质统计先验信息的储层物性参数同步反演

本文提出的储层物性参数同步反演是一种高分辨率的非线性反演方法,该方法综合利用岩石物理和地质统计先验信息,在贝叶斯理论框架下,首先通过变差结构分析得到合理的变差函数,进而利用快速傅里叶滑动平均模拟算法（Fast Fourier TransformMoving Average,FFT-MA）和逐渐变形算法（Gradual Deformation Method,GDM）得到基于地质统计学的储层物性参数先验信息,然后根据统计岩石物理模型建立弹性参数与储层物性参数之间的关系,构建似然函数,最终利用Metropolis算法实现后验概率密度的抽样,得到物性参数反演结果。并将此方法处理了中国陆上探区的一块实际资料,本方法的反演结果具有较高的分辨率,与测井数据吻合度较高;由于可以直接反演储层物性参数,避免了误差的累积,大大减少了不确定性的传递,且计算效率较高。     

基于GIS的矿井水害防治辅助决策支持系统

为提高矿井水害防治数字化管理水平,辅助矿井防治水决策,从矿区集团公司及其所属煤矿两级防治水管理与决策角度,提出了矿井水害防治信息系统的设计原则,分析了系统信息流程,设计了系统数据库和功能模块,分析了系统的关键技术并给出了在系统中的实现方法,即矿井突水水源判别技术,顶板和底板突水危险性评价方法。系统C/S部分利用GIS组件开发,较好地实现了图件管理,信息提取与分析和模型计算,并通过B/S模式实现图件与数据的网络发布。      

基于贝叶斯理论的逐次迭代非线性AVA反演方法

常规AVA三参数反演方法均基于横波速度与纵波速度之比γ为常数这一假设条件,且常被近似地取为0.5。然而在许多情况下γ并不为常数,而是在横向与纵向都渐变。若一概假定γ等于0.5,反演出的岩性参数势必要偏离真实值,因此有必要合理地选择γ。笔者基于贝叶斯理论,提出逐次迭代非线性AVA的反演方法。该方法把γ看成横向与纵向都渐变的反演初始背景,通过给定初始模型计算初始背景γ,并采用逐次迭代的策略求解该反演问题,解决了关于γ的选取问题以及由于引入变γ值而带来的非线性问题,提高了AVA三参数反演结果的精确度。     

A multi‐stock,length‐based assessment model for New Zealand rock lobster (Jasus Edwardsii)

We describe a multi‐stock, length‐based Bayesian assessment model for New Zealand spiny lobster (Jasus edwardsii) fisheries. This model allows simultaneous modelling of two or more stocks with a mixture of common and stock‐specific parameters: recruitment is always stock‐specific, but any other parameter can be specified as either common or stock‐specific. Common parameters are estimated from a wider base than they would be in a single‐stock model. The model's time step is flexible and can be changed during the period being modelled to accommodate better data quality in recent data. Other options include the capacity to estimate movements among stocks, allow density‐dependent growth, and choose among likelihood functions for the various data sets, between finite and instantaneous fishing dynamics and between two forms of selectivity curve.     

贝叶斯网络在水资源管理中的应用

为了解决水资源管理中具有不确定性的多目标决策问题,将贝叶斯网络方法引入水资源管理中。通过对实例系统中变量间相互关系的分析,构建描述变量间不确定性关系的贝叶斯网络模型,其中包括表示其依赖关系的有向无环图和表示其具体概率依赖程度的条件概率表,并在6个目标变量均达到预期目标的前提下进行概率推理。实例结果表明：当补偿款数额增加到500元/亩时,所有的目标变量均可达到最优,因此确定出政府应给农民补偿款的数额为500元/亩的合理水资源决策方案。贝叶斯网络以图模型的方式直观地表达了实例系统中变量之间的不确定性关系,概率推理的结果兼顾了环境效益以及农民的利益,使多个预期目标均达到了最优,有效地解决了水资源管理中具有不确定性的多目标决策问题。     

Fluorescence discrimination and determination technique for phytoplankton composition by Coif2 wavelet packet

An in vivo fluorescence discrimination technique for phytoplankton population was developed by using Wavelet packet transform, cluster analysis and non-negative least squares. The technique was used to analyze water samples from different sea regions. For simulative mixtures, when dominant species account for 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% at the division level, the correct discrimination ratios (CDRs) are 83.0%, 99.1%, 99.7% and 99.9% with the relative contents of 58.5%, 68.4%, 77.7% and 86.3%, respectively; when the algae dominance are 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 100% at the genus level, the CDRs are 86.1%, 94.9%, 95.2%, 96.8% and 96.7%, respectively. For laboratory mixtures, the CDRs are 88.1% and 78.4% at the division and genus level, respectively. For field samples, the CDRs were 91.7% and 80% at the division and genus level, respectively (mesocosm experiments), and the CDRs were 100% and 66.7% at the division and genus level, respectively (Jiaozhou Bay). The fluorometric technique was used to estimate the phytoplankton community composition and relative abundance of different classes for the April 2010 cruise in the Yellow Sea with the results agreeing with those in published papers by other authors.     

山东半岛东部海域表层沉积物元素组成及物源指示意义

通过对山东半岛东部海域表层沉积物常量、微量元素、有机碳(TOC)以及碳酸盐(CaCO₃)等指标的分析,研究了该海域表层沉积物元素组成特征及其控制因素,并对物质来源进行了探讨。结果表明,山东半岛东部海域表层沉积物元素的平均组成与上陆壳(UCC)相比Al,K,Na,Mg,Fe,Ca,Cu和Zn等元素,相对较低,而Mn,Co,Ni,Cr以及REE元素含量较高,Si和Ti与UCC的含量相当。研究区砂粒级沉积物轻重稀土分异明显,(La/Yb)_N值与韩国河流的非常相近;其余粒级沉积物LREE分异较弱,标准化曲线与黄河沉积物的具有相似性。研究区沉积物的元素含量主要受控于源岩组成,存在明显的"粒级效应"。除此之外,Fe-Mn氧化物、生物碳酸盐等因素对元素组成产生一定影响。沉积物物源判别结果显示,山东半岛近岸及其东南部沉积物主要来源于黄河,该区域沉积物分布受山东半岛沿岸流及近岸潮流影响。研究区东北部为残留砂,其沉积物元素组成特征与朝鲜半岛和鸭绿江沉积物组成相近,表明研究区东北部砂质区沉积物代末次冰期低海平面时可能由朝鲜半岛或鸭绿江供应。