长江流域夏季降水的贝叶斯多模式集合概率预测

A Bayesian probabilistic prediction scheme of the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) summer rainfall is proposed to combine forecast information from multi-model ensemble dataset provided by ENSEMBLES project.Due to the low forecast skill of rainfall in dynamic models,the time series of regressed YRV summer rainfall are selected as ensemble members in the new scheme,instead of commonly-used YRV summer rainfall simulated by models.Each time series of regressed YRV summer rainfall is derived from a simple linear regression.The predictor in each simple linear regression is the skillfully simulated circulation or surface temperature factor which is highly linear with the observed YRV summer rainfall in the training set.The high correlation between the ensemble mean of these regressed YRV summer rainfall and observation benefit extracting more sample information from the ensemble system.The results show that the cross-validated skill of the new scheme over the period of 1960 to 2002 is much higher than equally-weighted ensemble,multiple linear regression,and Bayesian ensemble with simulated YRV summer rainfall as ensemble members.In addition,the new scheme is also more skillful than reference forecasts (random forecast at a 0.01 significance level for ensemble mean and climatology forecast for probability density function).     

上海地区最高气温资料的恢复试验

对上海最高气温1924～2001年期间的缺测资料进行了恢复试验,以期通过该个例的研究,探讨我国台站历史资料集中缺测或中断序列的恢复、插补的一般方法.选取使用上海气象观测站的相邻若干台站的最高气温资料,分别用回归分析法、判别分析法和偏最小二乘法,对上海站相应期间缺测资料进行逐年逐月的恢复,并利用交叉检验的均方误差作为恢复效果的评判.结果发现对缺测资料恢复的总效果以偏最小二乘法为最好,因此选用该方法作为资料恢复的主要方法.恢复过程为每次仅恢复某月份、某测站、某年份的缺测资料,恢复后的估计值作为观测值使用,再进行其它缺测资料恢复的新资料集,如此反复地进行,以近期资料开始,逐步向前期资料延拓.这样做的目的是为了使得和后续的观测资料直接连接.     

基于贝叶斯网络分类的遥感影像变化检测

遥感成像过程中,地面、大气等诸多要素的不确定性和波段之间的相关性等原因影响了分类精度,导致变化检测的不准确性。为了提高分类精度往往需要引入先验知识。贝叶斯网络是一种新的数据表达和推理模型,对数据没有严格的正态分布前提要求,通过动态地调整先验概率密度,能有效提高分类精度。以北京通州地区1996-05-29和2001-05-19两个时相的陆地卫星Landsat TM遥感影像为例,介绍了基于贝叶斯网络的分类算法,并在此基础上实现了两个时相遥感影像的变化检测。实验结果表明:基于贝叶斯网络分类算法的后分类比较变化检测方法是遥感影像变化检测的一种新的有效方法。     

饱和砂土液化的动三轴试验判断与评价

基于动三轴砂土液化试验,采用抗液化剪应力判剐方法和地震反应分析计算结果与地震剪应力时程相结合的综合判别方法,对某长江大桥工程场地的饱和砂土液化进行了判断,并对其液化危害程度进行了等级划分,给出了不同超越概率下的预测结果。     

Soil erosion and sediment transport in Tanzania: Part I – sediment source tracing in three neighbouring river catchments

Water bodies in Tanzania are experiencing increased siltation, which is threatening water quality, ecosystem health, and livelihood security in the region. This phenomenon is caused by increasing rates of upstream soil erosion and downstream sediment transport. However, a lack of knowledge on the contributions from different catchment zones, land-use types, and dominant erosion processes, to the transported sediment is undermining the mitigation of soil degradation at the source of the problem. In this context, complementary sediment source tracing techniques were applied in three Tanzanian river systems to further the understanding of the complex dynamics of soil erosion and sediment transport in the region. Analysis of the geochemical and biochemical fingerprints revealed a highly complex and variable soil system that could be grouped in distinct classes. These soil classes were unmixed against riverine sediment fingerprints using the Bayesian MixSIAR model, yielding proportionate source contributions for each catchment. This sediment source tracing indicated that hillslope erosion on the open rangelands and maize croplands in the mid-zone contributed over 75% of the transported sediment load in all three river systems during the sampling time-period. By integrating geochemical and biochemical fingerprints in sediment source tracing techniques, this study demonstrated links between land use, soil erosion and downstream sediment transport in Tanzania. This evidence can guide land managers in designing targeted interventions that safeguard both soil health and water quality.     

High spatial-resolution monitoring to investigate nitrate export and its drivers in a mesoscale river catchment along an anthropogenic land-cover gradient

Nitrate monitoring is commonly conducted with low-spatial resolution, only at the outlet or at a small number of selected locations. As a result, the information about spatial variations in nitrate export and its drivers is scarce. In this study, we present results of high-spatial resolution monitoring conducted between 2012 and 2017 in 65 sub-catchments in an Alpine mesoscale river catchment characterized by a land-use gradient. We combined stable isotope techniques with Bayesian mixing models and geostatistical methods to investigate nitrate export and its main drivers, namely, microbial N turnover processes, land use and hydrological conditions. In the investigated sub-catchments, mean values of NO₃⁻ concentrations and its isotope signatures (δ¹⁵N_NO3 and δ¹⁸O_NO3) varied from 2.6 to 26.7 mg L⁻¹, from −1.3‰ to 13.1‰, and from −0.4‰ to 10.1‰, respectively. In this study, land use was an important driver for nitrate export. Very strong and strong positive correlations were found between percentages of agricultural land cover and δ¹⁵N_NO3, and NO₃⁻ concentration, respectively. Mean proportional contributions of NO₃⁻ sources varied spatially and seasonally, and followed land-use patterns. The mean contribution of manure and sewage was much higher in the catchments characterized by a high percentage of agricultural and urban land cover comparing to forested sub-catchments. Specific NO₃⁻ loads were strongly correlated with specific discharge and moderately correlated with NO₃⁻ concentrations. The nitrate isotope and concentration analysis results suggest that nitrate from external sources is stored and accumulated in soil storage pools. Nitrification of reduced nitrogen species in those pools plays the most important role for the N-dynamics in the Erlauf river catchment. Consequently, nitrification of reduced N sources was the main nitrate source except for a number of sub-catchments dominated by agricultural land use. In the Erlauf catchment, denitrification plays only a minor role in controlling NO₃⁻ export on a regional scale.     

2013年芦山Ms7.0地震前重力场源变化分析

陆地重力观测获取的时变重力信号是研究地壳内部孕震区介质变化的重要依据。利用贝叶斯平差方法处理了川西地区2010—2012年的流动重力观测资料,发现相对重力仪的格值系数在两年内变化可达2×10^-4,而且仪器存在较小的非线性漂移率;重力场累积动态变化图像显示,2013年芦山MS7.0地震发生在重力梯度带零值线与龙门山断裂带交会部位附近。进一步采用等效源方法划定了测网内以雅安、康定和石棉为中心的场源分辨能力较高的区域,并反演了地震前的地壳视密度变化。场源视密度动态变化结果表明:2013年芦山MS7.0地震前2年,在龙门山断裂带的南侧和鲜水河断裂南段的东侧区域形成了范围较大的等效视密度增加区,而在小金至康定一带和都江堰周边地区也存在小规模的视密度增加。本文基于陆地时变重力测量结果反演得到芦山地震前的地壳内部等效视密度变化,可为研究壳内深部孕震环境变化特征提供参考。     

云南地区强震前小震调制比特征分析

利用调制比时空扫描方法,对1973—2014年云南地区M_S≥6.0地震进行回溯性研究,分析强震前区域小震调制比时空演化过程。结果显示,从小震调制比异常开始至发震的持续时间为1.5 a之内,调制比异常的最高值需大于0.57,强震多发生在调制比为最高值时或其后14个月内异常区边界或内部调制比显著高值附近,震级随异常持续时间的延长大致呈增加的趋势;小滇西—滇西北地区的强震多发生在调制期内;从分区来看,滇西南强震多发生在调制比为最高值（R_m≥0.57）后6个月内的异常边界处,尤其是3个月内,滇西北强震多发生在最高值（R_m≥0.67）后7—12月内异常区内显著高值附近,滇东北强震多发生在最高值（R_m≥0.67）时的异常区内。     

改进的贝叶斯迭代反演方法及其在白云岩致密储层识别的应用

由于低孔隙度和低渗透率的白云岩致密油储集层的纵波阻抗与其围岩差异非常小,利用叠后反演技术难以有效预测储层,而可以提取丰富弹性信息的叠前反演是解决此问题的有效手段,但是由于噪声等问题,叠前反演方程有较强的不适定性,笔者在贝叶斯框架下引入了改进的多变量柯西分布和改进的低频约束因子,重新推导了反演方程,获得了新的目标函数,有效地减少了反演的不适定性,从而提高了反演的稳定性,并结合迭代的思想来不断更新反演求解过程中的背景纵横波速度比值,从而增加了反演结果的精度。模型数据测试和实际资料应用都证明了该方法的稳定性和适用性。统计表明,利用提出的反演方法,目的层段内优质储层厚度预测吻合率高达89.75%。因此,此方法对类似硅质致密储层的勘探有重要的借鉴意义。     

动能歧视模式ICP-MS测定地球化学样品中14种痕量元素

应用传统ICP-MS法测定勘查地球化学样品中Ag、Cd等痕量元素,基体效应和多原子离子干扰严重,准确测定的难度较大。本文基于当前ICP-MS消除干扰技术,分析了ICP-MS标准模式(STD)及动能歧视模式(KED)测定地球化学样品中Ag、Cd等14种痕量元素的有效性,通过比较这两种模式的测定效果,在此基础上确定了各元素的有效测定模式。结果表明:在KED模式下,基体元素如Zr、Nb氧化物的产率降低,基本上消除了Zr、Nb氧化物对痕量元素Ag、Cd的多原子离子干扰。KED模式提高了信噪比,降低了方法检出限,如Ag、Cd的检出限分别为0. 004mg/kg、0. 005mg/kg,其他12种元素的检出限也低于多目标地球化学调查76种元素分析方案中的检出限。测定痕量元素的准确度显著优于STD模式。实验中采用简单的硝酸-氢氟酸-高氯酸消解样品,残渣用王水复溶,结合KED模式下优选出干扰较小的同位素作为测定同位素,以Rh作为内标校正仪器产生的信号漂移,将样品溶液稀释至1000倍,基体效应降低至最小。本方法经国家一级标准物质的验证,测定结果与认定值相符,可为勘查地球化学提供高质量数据。