历史强震编目中对无破坏记载地震参数的估定

本文分析了“中国历史强震目录”中无破坏记载地震的时、空、强特点,给出了估定无破坏记载地震参数的方法。”同时对方法适用的地区、估定震级的偏差、以及方法的物理意义做了讨论。     

浅谈粗差探测方法

由于受到自然界、仪器、人为等一些因素的影响,观测数据中不但存在偶然误差而且还存在着由这些因素引起的粗差。因此,对观测数据进行认真检测,定位并修正粗差观测,以提高参数估计的准确度和精度,一直是测绘工程领域的热点问题。本文对粗差探测进行了简要概述,同时详细地介绍了三种粗差探测方法。     

基于贝叶斯原理的PP波和PS波AVO联合反演方法研究(英文)

基于Aki-Richards公式和贝叶斯原理,本文发展了利用叠前PP波和PS波资料联合反演P波速度比、S波速度比和密度比的方法。该方法假设参数之间满足正态分布,引入参数协方差矩阵来描述反演参数之间的相关性以提高反演过程的稳定性,并同时使反演的参数序列服从Cauchy分布,引入矩阵Q来描述参数序列的稀疏性以提高反演结果的分辨率。采用本文提出的方法对模型数据和实际多波资料进行反演,结果表明:本文方法正确有效;与传统的单一PP波反演相比,PP波和PS波AVO联合反演具有稳定性更好和反演精度更高等优点。     

Generalized penalized least squares and its statistical characteristics

The solution properties of semiparametric model are analyzed, especially that penalized least squares for semiparametric model will be invalid when the matrixBTPB is ill-posed or singular. According to the principle of ridge estimate for linear parametric model, generalized penalized least squares for semiparametric model are put forward, and some formulae and statistical properties of estimates are derived. Finally according to simulation examples some helpful conclusions are drawn.     

Testing the Universal Soil Loss Equation‐MB equation in plots in Central and South Italy

Planning soil conservation strategies requires predictive techniques at event scale because a large percentage of soil loss over a long‐time period is due to relatively few large storms. Considering runoff is expected to improve soil loss predictions and allows relation of the process‐oriented approach with the empirical one, furthermore, the effects of detachment and transport on soil erosion processes can be distinguished by a runoff component. In this paper, the empirical model USLE‐MB (USLE‐M based), including a rainfall‐runoff erosivity factor in which the event rainfall erosivity index EI₃₀ of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) multiplies the runoff coefficient Q_R raised to an exponent b₁ > 1 is tested by the measurements carried out for the Masse (10 plots) and Sparacia (22 plots) experimental stations in Italy. For the Masse experimental station, an exponent b₁ > 1 was also estimated by tests carried out by a nozzle‐type rainfall simulator. For each experimental site in fallow conditions, the effect of the sample size of the plot soil loss measurements on the estimate of the b₁ coefficient was also studied by the extraction of a fixed number N of randomly obtained pairs of the normalized soil loss and runoff coefficient. The analysis showed that the variability of b₁ with N is low and that 350 pairs are sufficient to obtain a stable estimate of b₁. A total of 1,262 soil loss data were used to parameterize the model both locally and considering the two sites simultaneously. The b₁ exponent varied between the two sites (1.298–1.520), but using a common exponent (1.386) was possible. Using a common b₁ exponent for the two experimental areas increases the practical interest for the model and allows the estimation of a baseline component of the soil erodibility factor, which is representative of the at‐site soil intrinsic and quasi‐static properties. Development of a single USLE‐MB model appears possible, and sampling other sites is advisable to develop a single USLE‐MB model for general use.     

基于精确Zoeppritz方程的非线性AVO三参数反演

常规AVO三参数反演通常存在密度反演不准确的问题,而密度参数对常规油气藏中的流体识别、流体饱和度计算、孔隙度计算以及非常规油气藏中TOC含量计算、裂缝预测等都至关重要,因此对于研究如何利用大偏移距振幅信息和富含密度信息的PS波地震资料来提高密度反演结果的稳定性和精度显得尤为重要.研究基于贝叶斯反演理论框架,引入三变量Cauchy分布先验约束,利用精确Zoeppritz方程构建了AVO三参数联合反演的目标函数,对目标函数进行Taylor二阶非线性简化,得到模型参数的迭代更新公式,实现了大偏移距地震振幅信息的利用和PP波、PS波联合反演.合成数据和实际地震数据的方法测试结果表明,新方法不仅可以直接反演纵波速度、横波速度和密度,而且还具有很高的精度,尤其是密度反演结果.基于合成数据的PP波、PS波单独反演结果与PP波和PS波联合反演结果对比显示,联合反演稳定性更好,精度更高,抗噪能力更强,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性.与基于Aki-Richards近似公式的反演结果对比表明,该反演方法具有更高的反演精度和更好的抗噪性.     

Lq估计的渐近方差-协方差矩阵及其特点

针对由独立同分布误差膨胀而成的独立不等精度误差,根据未知参数的M估计的Bahadur型线性表达式,本文导出了由观测量、残差向量、参数估计量和观测量平差向量组成的基本向量的Bahadur型表达式.进一步地,根据方差传播定律导出了M估计的基本向量的渐近方差-协方差矩阵,该矩阵由3个多余参数决定,第三多余参数由本文定义.对Lq范估计,分别计算了误差分别为正态分布和q范分布时的3个多余参数,以及相应的基本向量的方差协方差矩阵.对最小二乘估计,残差向量与参数估计量和观测量的平差向量统计独立,相应的协方差矩阵为零,这一性质与误差分布无关.对正态分布的Lq估计,残差向量与参数估计量和观测量平差向量的协方差不为零;而对q范分布的Lq估计,即是相应的极大似然估计,残差向量与参数估计量和观测量平差向量的协方差为零.文中所得公式和结论可用于统计分析.     

Occurrence of Hydroclathrus clathratus in northern New Zealand waters

Hydroclathrus clathratus (C. Agardh) Howe (Phacophyta: Punctariales) is recorded from two harbours on the Northland east coast, North Island, New Zealand. The possibility of its being a recently introduced species is discussed.     

两类天气预报评分问题研究及一种新评分方法

探讨了预报评价的意义及应遵循的原则, 对常用的几种两类预报评分方法进行分析, 指出其应用的局限性, 得到一个判定所作预报水平是否高于随机预报、具有预报技巧的简易判别式; 提出评分权重的概念, 指出以往评分存在问题的根源是评分权重分配不当, 使评分结果的真实性受到影响, 评分无可比性, 进而提出一种考虑了评分权重的新评分方法。新评分方法满足预报评价的原则, 侧重于对两类事件中事件概率较小一方预报效果的评估, 评分结果不受事件概率影响, 具有可比性。对比分析表明:新方法比其他方法优越, 能更准确地反映预报水平, 使不同季节、不同地域的预报评分可进行比较, 是一个通用的评分方法。