近岸带波高与周期分布的核密度估计

使用双变量核密度估计方法描述近岸带波高和周期联合概率密度分布与波高、周期边缘密度分布。结果表明,核密度估计方法比通常使用的参数模式能更好地显示出具有多峰的波要素统计结构,核密度估计的波周期带宽系数能反映波浪谱的某些信息,尤其以波周期带宽和谱宽参量具有良好的线性关系。     

利用多台P波到时估测震中算法及程序

通过基于COM组件的VB与Matlab混合编程途径,实现已知区域P波速度条件下利用多台P波到时估测震中位置算法程序化,使用发现,该程序具有运行界面友好、速度快及对网内和网缘地震定位精度较好的优点.     

多波束回声数据的统计与底质分类应用

利用声反向散射数据作海底沉积物分类,是海洋地质学家感兴趣的话题,也是目前多波束声纳应用的一个研究热点。结合胶州湾实际调查数据,探讨了贝叶斯分类方法在该领域的应用。研究结果表明,该方法可以对不同的底质类型进行分类,可以识别未知的底质类型以及对混合在一起的两种不同类型的目标进行分类。     

雷达定量降雪估测方法的设计和订正

从降雪预警业务实际出发,设计了基于最优化法的雷达估测降雪方法,对2007年3月4日特大暴雪过程开展雷达降雪估测试验,并分析估测结果的误差。针对温度变化、雪花末速度、与雷达的距离和计算方法等方面的误差因素制定了3种改进方案。改进后的估测降雪量与实况降雪量的相关系数提高到0.66（超过99%信度检验）,平均相对误差降低至48.74%,对于0.3 mm/h的较弱降雪和5 mm/h以上的强降雪均具有估测能力。其中距离雷达50～100 km的样本估测降雪量与实况降雪量的相关系数达到0.82。在3种改进方案中,考虑降雪末速度影响的改进效果不明显,这可能与本次暴雪过程的回波较均匀有关;按雷达与样本距离分类进行雷达降雪估测的效果最明显,不仅可以增加相似程度,还减小了雷达近距离高估和远距离低估的误差;而算法的改进进一步提高估测精度。本次雷达降雪估测对于1.6～2.5 mm/h的较强降雪和2.6 mm/h以上的强降雪平均相对误差较小,分别为31%和27%,但雷达降雪估测高估了1.5 mm/h以下的降雪而低估2.6 mm/h以上的强降雪。一方面说明雷达回波对于降雪强弱变化不是很敏感,另一方面在业务实际工作中有可能利用这种一致性的误差进行订正,以提高降雪估测精度。      

铜陵地区矽卡岩型独立金矿成矿深度探讨

采用矿床地质法和流体包裹体压力计法,对铜陵地区包村、朝山矽卡岩型独立金矿床的成矿深度进行了估算。据成矿相关岩体特征、金矿体延深、矿石特征等推断金矿化发生于浅成—中浅成环境。根据不同矿化阶段石英、方解石中流体包裹体的显微测温结果,估算成矿压力为650×105～850×105Pa,成矿深度介于2.5～3.2km,与矿床地质特征反映的成矿深度基本吻合,也与国内外同类矿床研究结果相符。综合认为铜陵地区矽卡岩型独立金矿床成矿深度为中浅成,脆性构造裂隙空间的压力骤然降低引起的流体不混溶和流体沸腾是金富集成矿的主要原因。     

遗传算法优化的BP神经网络城市不透水层百分比估算

本研究利用基于遗传算法优化的BP神经网络算法估算城市不透水层百分比。首先,将像元中各端元组分与BP神经网络的节点相对应进行BP网络建模,遗传算子建模;其次,对样本进行网络训练,先通过GA算法得到全局近最优网络权重集,然后用梯度下降算法训练网络,直到找到能充分反映特征空间中的数据分布模式的局部最优网络权重集;然后,训练好的网络被应用于整个影像用来估算城市不透水层覆盖百分比。在此基础上,对北京市地表不透水层百分比进行估算。试验结果表明,本研究所用的方法能有效利用中高分辨率遥感影像数据估算城市不透水层百分比。     

H-adaptivity applied to liquefiable soil in nonlinear analysis of soil–pile interaction

This paper is concerned with application of the h-adaptive finite element method to dynamic analysis of a pile in liquefiable soil considering large deformation. In finite element analysis of pile behavior in liquefiable soil during an earthquake, especially considering large deformation of liquefied ground, error due to discretization in the zone near the pile becomes very large. Our purpose was to refine the approximation of the finite element method. The updated Lagrangian formulation and a cyclic elasto-plastic model based on the kinematic hardening rule were adopted to deal with the nonlinearity of the soil. The mixed finite element and finite difference methods together with the u-p formulation and Biot's two-phase mixture theory were used. To improve the accuracy and increase the efficiency of finite element analysis, an h-adaptive scheme that included a posteriori error estimation and h-version mesh refinement was applied to the analysis. The calculated results of effective stress were smoothed locally by the extrapolation method and smoothed stress was used to calculate the L₂ norm of the effective stress error in the last step of the calculation of each time increment. The mesh was refined by a fission procedure based on the indication of the error estimate As a numerical example, a soil–pile interaction system loaded cyclically was analyzed by our method.     

华北地块内部主要断层运动模型的GPS数据反演分析

利用华北地区 1993～ 2 0 0 0年的高精度GPS观测处理结果 ,采用稳健—贝叶斯最小二乘算法与多断裂位错模型 ,初步分析研究了华北地块内部主要断层现今运动定量模型 ,得到下列结果 :(1)其主要断裂带的走滑运动速率介于 0 .0 3至 3.2cm/a之间 ,1.0至 2 .0cm/a之间者居多 ;其倾滑运动速率介于 0 .9至 8.3cm/a之间 ,1.0至 2 .8cm/a之间者居多 ,一般大于走滑运动速率 ;其张裂运动速率介于 0 .0 4至 3.5cm/a之间 ,0 .0至 0 .8cm/a之间者居多。 (2 )总体来说 ,其主要断裂运动具有继承性 ,西部 (大致以东经 114°为界 )断层运动大于东部断层运动。 (3)其主要断层现今运动以垂直升降运动为主 ,兼有走滑、伸展特征。 (4)依据反演结果 ,讨论了断层运动与地震孕育的关系 ,若将断层运动视为局部“闭锁”地区的弹性应力应变集中或地震能量积累 ,各断层每年有相当于 5 .1～ 7.0级的地震能量积累     

A bound for the Euclidean norm of the difference between the best linear unbiased estimator and a linear unbiased estimator

 A bound is established for the Euclidean norm of the difference between the best linear unbiased estimator and any linear unbiased estimator in the general linear model. The bound involves the spectral norm of the difference between the dispersion matrices of the two estimators, and the residual sum of squares, all evaluated at the assumed model, but is independent of the provenance of the observation vector at hand. The bound, a straightforward consequence of first principles in Gauss–Markov theory, generalizes previous results on the difference between the best linear unbiased estimator and the ordinary least-squares estimator. In a numerical example from repeated precise levelling, the bound is used to analyse the sensitivity of estimates of vertical motion to the choice of estimator. Received: 9 September 1999 / Accepted: 15 March 2002     

Atmospheric remote sensing constraints on direct sea-air methane flux from the 22/4b North Sea massive blowout bubble plume

A new airborne remote sensing approach to estimate an upper limit of the direct sea-air methane emission flux was applied over the 22/4b blowout site located at N57.92°, E1.63° in the North Sea. Passive remote sensing data using sunglint/sunglitter geometry were collected during instrumental tests with the Methane Airborne MAPper – MAMAP – instrument installed aboard the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) Polar-5 aircraft on 3. June 2011. MAMAP is a passive short wave infrared (SWIR) remote sensing spectrometer for airborne measurements and retrieval of the atmospheric column-averaged dry air mole fractions of methane (XCH₄) and carbon dioxide (XCO₂). In addition to MAMAP a fast CH₄ in-situ analyzer (Los-Gatos Research Inc. RMT-200), two 5-hole turbulence probes and the Polar-5 basic sensor suite comprising different temperature, pressure, humidity and camera sensors were installed aboard the aircraft. The collected MAMAP remote sensing data acquired in the vicinity of the 22/4b blowout site showed no detectable increase in the derived XCH₄ (with respect to the atmospheric background). Based on the absence of a detectable XCH₄ column increase, an approximate top-down upper-limit for the direct atmospheric 22/4b blowout CH₄ emissions from the main bubble plume of less than 10 ktCH₄/yr has been derived. The constraint has been determined by comparing XCH₄ information derived by the remote sensing measurements with results obtained from a Gaussian plume forward model simulation taking into account the actual flight track, the instrument sensitivity and measurement geometry, as well as the prevailing atmospheric conditions.