中国老龄事业发展水平时空演化及其与经济发展水平的空间匹配

基于“积极老龄化”理论框架,从健康、参与和保障三大维度构建中国老龄事业发展水平评价指标体系。以中国大陆31个省（自治区、直辖市）为研究对象,运用数理统计、重心和空间重叠性、空间错位分析和计量经济模型等方法,分析了2004—2016年中国老龄事业发展水平的时序变化、空间格局、错位特征及其影响机制。结果表明：① 2004—2016年,中国老龄事业发展水平整体快速增长,区域差异逐渐缩小,但区域失衡特征不容忽视。东部地区整体水平高于中部、西部及东北地区,并伴有“西部崛起,中部及东北地区塌陷”特征。东部地区呈现“两极化”现象。② 中国老龄事业基本处于低水平发展阶段,空间分布由西南-东北辐射递减模式转变为显著的“中部塌陷”式,形成一条由北向南的低值集聚带,纵贯中国中部,与区域经济发展存在错位关系。③ 负向错位区主要分布在黄河、长江中上游地区,正向错位区主要集中在东部沿海、长城以北等地区。空间错位强度存在显著的地域差异性,其中西部地区尤为显著。④ 老龄事业发展水平的动态变化是多因素交互作用的结果。经济发展水平、政府政策和行政导向及产业结构的时空分异对其产生正向影响。市场经济规模扩大和人口老龄化未对老龄事业发展起推动作用,与理论预期不符。家庭规模小型化的倒逼作用不显著。     

Late Quaternary diatom and sea level changes in estuarine plain of the Jiulong River

TheJiulongRiver,composedoftheWestStream,theNorthStreamandtheSouthStream(seeFig.1)isthesecondlargestriverinFujianProvince.ItsestuarineplainintervenesbetweenthetwqcitiesofXiamenandZhangzhou,withsouthern-subtropicoceanicmonsoonclimate-SofartherehasnotbeensystematicresearchontheLateQuaternarysea1evelchangesinthearea,andthispaperisintendedtodosomethingaboutit.DIAToMZoNESANDBIoFACIESOFZK5BoREHOLETheBoreholeZK5islocatedtothenortheastofHaichengTown,withcoordinateof24"24,32*N,ll7'5…     

Genesis of an endoreic piezometric coastal depression in sub-Sahelian Western Africa: the Continental Terminal Aquifer of Trarza (Mauritania)

Despite its capital importance, the genesis of endoreic water table depressions in Western sub-Sahelian Africa is not well known yet. It is the case of the Trarza Aquifer, which is the main resource of drinkable water for Nouakchott. While water needs are growing steadily, global warming is threatening this resource. The genesis of piezometric depression is the object of this study, which analyses it in the light of the hydrochemistry of the western border of the Trarza aquifer, which is located in proximity of the Atlantic Ocean and its salt wedge.

The hydrochemical facies of groundwater in the Idini pumping site, 60 km East of Nouakchott, and that of a Nouakchott to the Senegal River transect, should be categorised into 3 groups: 1) chloro-sulfated 2) sulfato-chlorinated and chloro-bicarbonated. Such facies, which are also sodocalcic, indicate that mineralization is of mixed origin (marine and continental).

After reviewing the main mathematical models for piezometric depression, the present study attempts a conceptualization of the piezometric evolution of this phreatic aquifer (Continental Terminal) during the Quaternary. It highlights the dominant role of evaporation in the evolution of the water table of the Trarza aquifer, whose impact is similar to the one of the Quaternary marine level increase.     

Natural background levels and threshold values of monitored parameters in the Cambrian-Vendian groundwater body,Estonia

The Cambrian-Vendian groundwater body plays an important role in drinking water supply of capital Tallinn and other settlements in northern Estonia. Water quality in this deep-seated confined groundwater body is influenced by the intrusion of present-day seawater and pumping-induced upward migration of deeper saline groundwater. The aim of this study is to evaluate the threshold values applying the methodology worked out within the EU 6th FP project “Background criteria for the identification of groundwater thresholds (BRIDGE)” and to compare the results with the values proposed by local authorities. A database containing 250 monitoring points was completed and used for the calculation of natural background levels (as the 90 and 97.7 percentile) in groundwater. The calculation of threshold values is based on natural background levels and reference values. In case of Cambrian-Vendian groundwater body the receptor is drinking water, thus limit values set by Estonian drinking water standard were used as reference values. The threshold values proposed by local authorities are more or less the same as calculated by BRIDGE methodology. Exceptionally different values are derived in case of chloride and ammonium.     

Effective timescales of coupling within fluvial systems

This paper presents a review of the coupling concept in fluvial geomorphology, based mainly on previously published work. Coupling mechanisms link the components of the fluvial system, controlling sediment transport down the system and the propagation of the effects of base-level change up the system. They can be viewed at several scales: at the local scale involving within-hillslope coupling, hillslope-to-channel coupling, and within-channels, tributary junction and reach-to-reach coupling. At larger scales, coupling can be considered as zonal coupling, between major zones of the system or as regional coupling, relating to complete drainage basins. These trends are illustrated particularly by the examples of hillslope-to-channel coupling in the Howgill Fells, northwest England, badland systems in southeast Spain, alluvial fans in Spain, USA and UAE, and base-level-induced dissection of Neogene sedimentary basins in southeast Spain. As the spatial scales increase, so do the timescales involved. Effective temporal scales relate to magnitude and frequency characteristics, recovery time and propagation time, the relative importance changing with the spatial scale. For downsystem coupling at the local scale, the first two are important, with propagation time increasing in importance in larger systems, especially in those involving upsystem coupling related to base-level change. The effective timescales range from the individual event, with a return period of decades, through decadal to century timescales for downsystem coupling, to tens to hundreds of thousands of years for the basinwide response to base-level change. The effective timescales influence the relative importance of factors controlling landform development.     

沙尘暴危险度的定量评估研究

目前对于沙尘暴风险管理的系统性和实用性有待完善,在沙尘暴危险度研究中缺乏对于气象因子的实时定量评估方法,使得气象服务工作也只能为沙尘暴提供实时卫星监测结果,尚不能细致提供沙尘暴危险度的实时定量评估结果,不同程度地影响了沙尘暴防灾减灾工作的高效实施。系统化沙尘暴风险分类,将沙尘暴灾害应对分为防灾过程和减灾过程,明确了沙尘暴危险度在这两种过程中的主要构成,结合沙尘暴危害特点提出了实时数量化的沙尘暴危险度诊断表达式,对表达式各组成部分进行了初步讨论。使用层次分析法结合聚类分析,分析甘肃民勤地区2001年6月1日—2010年11月15日的地面气象观测资料,得出该地沙尘暴危险度具体表达形式并进行计算,给出了在此期间民勤地区沙尘暴危险度的定量评估结果。结果表明,在民勤地区该时间段内,沙尘暴危险度范围为0.45～4.49,平均危险度为1.99,超过平均危险度的沙尘暴时次有25次,其中最危险的沙尘暴发生于2010年4月24日,完全符合历史事实。由此说明,沙尘暴危险度表达式能够客观地给出沙尘暴危险度实时诊断结果,且其结构清楚,计算简单,便于气象服务业务工作的使用与推广。     

大规模地形漫游中的实时LOD算法研究

大规模地形漫游在游戏、仿真、虚拟现实等领域有着广泛的应用。该文在总结现有地形简化算法的基础上,提出了一种基于动态调度的地形块内视点相关二叉树简化算法,有效地简化地形,实现大规模场景的实时漫游。     

珠江三角洲东部常平地区景观异质性研究

本文以１９８８年－１９９６年６个时段景观遥感类型图为主要信息源,利用信息熵法和空隙度指数法对珠江三角洲东部常平地区的景观异质性进行了研究。重点探讨了景观组分的空间分布差异和异质性动态变化情况。结果显示,开发区主要呈宏观异质性分布,果园,农田和林地呈微观异质性分布,城镇和水体的异质性分布特征均出现显著变化。     

A reappraisal of postglacial decay times from Richmond Gulf and James Bay, Canada

Decay times inferred from relative sea‐level (RSL) histories of previously glaciated regions provide a potentially important constraint on mantle rheology. We present a new compilation of RSL data from Richmond Gulf and James Bay, Canada. This recompilation reveals errors in previous compilations that led to inaccurate estimates for the Richmond Gulf decay time in a series of recently published articles. We derive updated estimates for the decay time at Richmond Gulf and James Bay using a methodology that incorporates errors in both the age and the height of the sea‐level markers. This exercise is guided by a series of synthetic RSL calculations that show that decay time estimates in the region can be significantly biased if the RSL time‐series are not corrected for global eustatic sea‐level trends, or if the estimates are based on composite RSL histories derived by combining data from both the Richmond Gulf and the James Bay regions. Our decay time analysis for Richmond Gulf applies the pioneering approach of Walcott (1980) to a large database and we derive a value of 4.0–6.6 kyr, where the range is defined by a misfit tolerance 10 per cent higher than the minimum. Our analysis for James Bay is based on the uplift curve derived by Hardy (1976) , and we estimate a decay time of about 2.0–2.8 kyr. The difference between our estimates for Richmond Gulf and James Bay may be due to errors in the observational record from these regions, but could also be influenced by lateral variations in lithospheric structure associated with the assembly of Laurentia.     

土地类型系列制图的几个理论问题

实际存在的不同尺度地域分异规律是土地类型系列制图的客观基础。多种尺度制图构成的土地类型系列制图可以全面揭示区域土地类型的形成因素、分布规律和空间结构特征,也为不同层次土地规划管理之间的相互补充、协调提供了重要基础。