温泉地震台钻孔体应变观测资料分析

对新疆温泉地震台钻孔体应变日常观测中的常见干扰进行识别,应用维尼迪科夫调和分析方法检测观测资料内精度和稳定性,分析了气压、水位对体应变观测的影响程度。分析结果表明,新疆温泉地震台的体应变观测较稳定,满足地震监测的需求条件。     

山东洞体应变观测质量分析

选取山东省3个洞体应变台2007-2011年观测数据,分析资料的完整性、内在质量及干扰因素.结果表明：①观测资料连续性和完整性较好;②仪器零漂满足设计指标要求;③M2波振幅因子相对误差和相对噪声水平达到Ⅰ类应变台标准;④仪器更新后观测质量提升;⑤洞体应变观测主要受仪器调修、气压、降雨和观测环境变化等因素影响.     

丹东变电井水位数据动态分析

本文主要研究丹东变电井地下流体水位数字化改造后的十五数字资料,对变电井水位的正常动态、干扰动态、同震异常进行全面的分析和总结,识别水位变化中的正常动态和干扰动态,分析干扰动态原因及解决办法,总结典型同震异常特点,以提高利用地下流体观测地震的监测效能。     

Investigating the optically stimulated luminescence dose saturation behavior for quartz grains from dune sands in China

The optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) signals from quartz have been widely used to estimate the equivalent dose (D_e) of environment radiation after the deposition of mineral grains. However, the usage of quartz is often limited due to the lower saturation behavior compared with feldspar. Saturation limits among quartz (defining the upper dating range) vary significantly. It is important to better understand the reason for various dose saturation behaviors of the quartz OSL signals. In this study, coarse quartz grains were extracted from the Taklimakan Desert and the Hunshandake sandy land in north China and the dose saturation behavior of quartz OSL signals were studied. Our results suggest that the quartz grains produce very different aliquot-specific dose response curves, showing the significant variability in dose saturation characteristics for OSL signals. Laboratory dosing, optical bleaching and heating experiments were designed to simulate their effects on the dose saturation behavior for the quartz OSL. The results demonstrate that cycles of dosing and optical bleaching have insignificant impact on the OSL dose growth curves, while the heating to high temperature (above 400 °C) can significantly change the dose saturation characteristics for the quartz OSL. Such results suggest that the different heating history of quartz might be an important factor for the variability in dose saturation characteristics for OSL signals. Additionally, the quartz grains from the Hunshandake sandy land exhibit lower dose saturation level for OSL signals, compared with that from the Taklimakan Desert. This can be explained that the quartz grains from Hunshandake sandy land are mainly of igneous origin, while the quartz grains from Taklimakan Desert are mainly of metamorphic origin.     

Coastal Case Study-Clarence City Council

This report chooses Clarence City Council as the coastal jurisdiction and analyzes its planning processes and instruments for its potential to build resilience to climate change impacts on the coast. In the first part, it introduces the change of Australia’s climate and consequences of climate change. Based on analysis of sea level rise, inundation and erosion risk, it shows climate change has impacts on Clarence coastal areas in Tasmania. This paper shows the three key elements for successful coastal management (retreat, accommodation and protection) and discusses the factors that impede resilience. Finally, there are some recommendations that may be helpful for climate change impacts and local council     

基于GIS的区县级暴雨洪涝风险评估方法

在全球变暖大背景下,极端灾害性天气事件频繁发生,其中以暴雨洪涝灾害表现最为明显。文章基于灾害系统理论及风险评估原理,利用基础地理数据、气象数据、社会经济数据、历史灾情数据等,分别从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性、防灾减灾能力4个评价指标,建立基于评价因子的暴雨洪涝风险评估模型,并指出区县级暴雨洪涝风险评估需要解决的重点问题包括数据空间化、气象数据的序列延长、参数的确定等。最后以暴雨洪涝多发地区福建省石狮市（县级市）为研究区,利用GIS技术生成100 m×100 m分辨率的致灾因子危险性空间分布图、孕灾环境敏感性空间分布图、承灾体易损性空间分布图、防灾减灾能力空间分布图、暴雨洪涝风险评估空间分布图。结果显示：风险最高地区主要位于湖滨街道和凤里街道;其次是祥芝镇东部和西部,灵秀镇大部份地区、蚶江镇中南部、宝盖镇中南部和锦尚镇大部分地区;风险较低的地区主要是蚶江镇北部、宝盖镇北部和永宁镇大部分地区。     

陆相湖盆古地形、可容空间的体积变化率与层序结构的关系

通过对东营凹陷和东濮凹陷的层序结构的差异进行了对比,并对东营凹陷和东濮凹陷的体积和地形进行了分析,认为陆相湖盆古地形、可容空间变化与总可容空间的比值(可容空间的体积变化率)与层序结构有密切关系。沙三段沉积期,东营凹陷三级湖平面变化引起的可容空间的体积变化率与东濮凹陷四级湖平面变化引起的可容空间的体积变化率相近。东营凹陷沙三段沉积时期盆地体积大、地形陡,层序的发育主要受三级湖平面变化的控制,因此层序厚度大,层序内部砂体厚度大,分布相对集中。而东濮凹陷沙三段沉积时期,盆地体积小,地形较缓,层序的发育主要受四级湖平面变化的控制,因此层序厚度小,层序内部砂体厚度小,分布广,不稳定。     

高坝抗震设防问题的探讨

本文探讨了高坝抗震设防的决策问题。分别从高坝设计使用年限及高坝的功能2个角度出发,探讨了进行高坝抗震设防标准决策的2种不同方法。从高坝设计使用年限出发,提出同样重要性的结构在不同的设计使用年限应具有相同的可靠度水平,以此来进行抗震设防烈度的决策。从基于功能分析的角度出发,提出应使总的期望损失最小为准则来进行最优抗震设防烈度的决策。     

地震周期的数值估计

模拟计算表明,地震有多种成因,多种因素的周期复合掩盖了地震的周期性。环太平洋地震带受板块运动、潮汐波动、厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜、海平面变化、剥蚀沉积、太平洋十年涛动等诸多因素影响,地震活动最为强烈,8．5级以上强震有明显的准60年和1800年潮汐波动周期。     

Climate-Induced Variability of Sea Level in Stockholm： Influence of Air Temperature and Atmospheric Circulation

This study is focused on climate-induced variation of sea level in Stockholm during 1873-1995. After the effect of the land uplift, is removed, the residual is characterized and related to large-scale temperature and atmospheric circulation. The residual shows an overall upward trend, although this result depends on the uplift rate used. However, the seasonal distribution of the trend is uneven. There are even two months （June and August） that show a negative trend. The significant trend in August may be linked to fresh water input that is controlled by precipitation. The influence of the atmospheric conditions on the sea level is mainly manifested through zonal winds, vorticity and temperature. While the wind is important in the period January-May, the vorticity plays a main role during June and December. A successful linear multiple-regression model linking the climatic variables （zonal winds, vorticity and mean air temperature during the previous two months） and the sea level is established for each month. An independent verification of the model shows that it has considerable skill in simulating the variability.