西南地区传统村落区域保护水平评价及影响因素

本文在理论层面构建传统村落保护研究模型,并以西南地区为例,分析宏观视角下传统村落区域保护水平及影响因素。结论显示：① 传统村落保护研究模型涵盖评价体系和影响因素两个子模型。评价体系模型包含从宏观到微观的传统村落时空分布、整体保护水平和单一属性3个层次,其中整体保护水平分为宏观区域和微观社区两个亚层,保存率和分布密度是评价区域保护水平的简易方法;影响因素模型包含基于时间、空间和类型划分的两类基本分析模型。② 西南地区传统村落区域保护水平呈现显著空间分异,在行政区划边界地区形成5个热点集聚区,丽江市传统村落保存率最高,黔东南州分布密度最高。③ 影响西南地区传统村落宏观保护水平的地理区位因素为海拔、水系、中心城市和交通干道。经济社会因素中,非遗规模是最重要的影响因素,人口密度、经济发展、交通建设、交通流动和非遗规模的相关系数存在显著空间分异,城镇化率、产业结构对于区域保护水平无显著影响。本文是对传统村落保护理论体系由个案向整体、由微观向宏观、由零散向系统、由单一向多元方法的推进,具有重要理论和实践价值。     

新疆河流年径流量对夏季0C层高度变化的响应

According to climate features and river runoff conditions, Xinjiang could be divided into three research areas: The Altay-Tacheng region, the Tianshan Mountain region and the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. Utilizing daily observations from 12 sounding stations and the annual runoff dataset from 34 hydrographical stations in Xinjiang for the period 1960-2002, the variance of the summertime 0℃ level height and the changing trends of river runoff are analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively, through trend contrast of curves processed by a 5-point smoothing procedure and linear correlation. The variance of the summertime 0℃ level height in Xinjiang correlates well with that of the annual river runoff,especially since the early 1990s, but it differs from region to region, with both the average height of the 0℃ level and runoff quantity significantly increasing over time in the Altay-Tacheng and Tianshan Mountain regions but decreasing on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains. The correlation holds for the whole of Xinjiang as well as the three individual regions, with a 0.01 significance level. This indicates that in recent years, climate change in Xinjiang has affected not only the surface layer but also the upper levels of the atmosphere, and this raising and lowering of the summertime 0℃ level has a direct impact on the warming and wetting process in Xinjiang and the amount of river runoff. Warming due to climate change increases the height of the 0℃ level, but also speeds up, ice-snow melting in mountain regions, which in turn increases river runoff, leading to a season of plentiful water instead of the more normal low flow period.     

东北三省城乡收入差距空间格局及其分异机制研究

借助多元逐步线性回归、GWR等模型方法,探讨1990年以来东北三省城乡收入差距空间格局、类型特征及其分异机制,最后提出城乡统筹可持续发展建议。结果表明： 1990年以来,东北三省城乡居民收入水平大幅提高,但大部分地区城镇居民可支配收入水平仍低于全国平均水平;城乡收入差距整体有所拉大,呈现出“中间高、两端低”的空间特征。 城乡收入差距空间分布格局受经济发展水平、工业拉动效应、服务业带动力和交通通达程度影响,其中经济发展水平对城乡收入差距由早期的正向拉大作用为主,逐步演变为负向抑制效应。 据此提出对策建议：深化改革开放,加快国有企业改革步伐,优化区域产业结构,提高服务业发展水平和比重,激发市场活力,破解制约区域经济发展的各种障碍;加快实施乡村振兴战略,促进乡村资源开发,开辟致富增收新路径。     

古村落社区旅游参与度及影响因素——西递、宏村、南屏比较研究

以社区家庭为视角,建立基于利益导向的社区旅游参与水平测度指标,以皖南古村落西递、宏村、南屏为实证研究对象,揭示了古村落社区旅游参与度异同及其影响机理。研究结果表明:① 古村落内部、古村落之间的旅游参与度均有不同程度的差异,归因为家庭微观因子与社区中观因子交互作用所致。② 通过家庭微观因子对家庭人均旅游收入影响的通径系数分析,得出三个景区相应的直接通径系数和间接通径系数,发现古村落家庭微观因子的影响方向趋同而影响程度分异,与问卷调查结果分析的一致性也显示了该方法的较强解释力和潜在应用价值。③ 提高古村落社区旅游参与整体水平、缓解参与度空间差异的根本途径在于"让利于民",增强社区分利能力,政府在其中扮演着重要的引导角色。     

Analysis of Spatial Mismatch of Tourism Development in Guangdong Province

The spatial mismatch situation of tourism development in Guangdong Province is analyzed by gravity model and two-dimensional matrix based on the spatial mismatch hypothesis, and the results are visualized using ArcGIS software. This study finds that varying degrees of spatial mismatch exist between the level of tourism development, abundance of tourism resources and accessibility of tourism locations in the 21 cities in Guangdong Province. The gravity centers for tourism economy, tourism resources and tourism location are (113.55° E, 23.00° N), (113.69° E, 23.21° N) and (113.74° E, 22.86° N), respectively. According to the two-dimensional combinatorial matrices, synchronous development is shown in 10 prefecture-level cities for the tourism revenue-resource abundance combination, whereas it is shown in seven prefecture-level cities for the tourism revenue-tourism location combination. Guangzhou and Shenzhen are synchronous-double high zones for both combinations, while Foshan, Qingyuan, Yangjiang, Zhongshan and Jieyang are deviating-negative mismatch zones for both combinations. Furthermore, the vast majority of prefecture-level cities within the province currently present mismatching trends in tourism development. Based on the analysis results, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward taking into account the actual situation and opportunities for further tourism development in various prefecture-level cities.     

The onset of Pleistocene glaciation in the Barents Sea: implications for glacial isostatic adjustment

In this paper the effect of a delayed onset of glaciation in the Barents Sea on glacial isostatic adjustment is investigated. The model calculations solve the sea-level equation governing the total mass redistributions associated with the last glaciation cycle on a spherically symmetric, linear, Maxwell viscoelastic earth for two different scenarios for the growth phase of the Barents Sea ice sheet. In the first ice model a linear growing history is used for the Barents Sea ice sheet, which closely relates its development to the build-up of other major Late Pleistocene ice sheets. In the second ice model the accumulation of the Barents Sea ice sheet is restricted to the last 6 ka prior to the last glacial maximum.
The calculations predict relative sea levels, present-day radial velocities, and gravity anomalies for the area formerly covered by the Weichselian ice sheet. The results show that observed relative sea levels in the Barents Sea are appropriate for distinguishing between the different glaciation histories. In particular, present-day observables such as the free-air gravity anomaly over the Barents Sea, and the present-day radial velocities are sensitive to changes in the glaciation history on this scale.
A palaeobathymetry derived from relative sea-level predictions before the last glacial maximum based on the second ice model essentially agrees with a palaeobathymetry derived by Lambeck (1995). The additional emerged areas provide centres for the build-up of an ice sheet and thus support the theory of Hald, Danielsen & Lorentzen (1990) and Mangerud et al. (1992) that the Barents Sea was an essentially marine environment shortly before the last glacial maximum.     

珠江三角洲地区未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的耕地损失预测

珠江三角洲地区是中国海岸带中风暴潮灾害最集中的区域之一。在全球气候变化和海平面上升的影响下,风暴潮灾害将对该地区农业生产造成巨大的损失。在借鉴相关经验与研究的基础上,建立风暴潮增水灾害耕地产量损失评估模型,选择广东省珠江三角洲地区为研究区域,以该地区的DEM、土地利用等数据为基础,通过实地调研获取当地的作物种植结构、轮作方式、作物单产、不同淹没高度下不同作物的损失率等数据资料,基于未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的不同时间情景,估算并分析了2030、2050及2100年珠三角地区耕地受灾范围的空间分布特征及产量损失变化情况。结果表明：受气候变化的影响,未来珠三角地区风暴潮影响下的耕地淹没面积比重不断上升,其中阳江、佛山和东莞等地耕地淹没面积从2030年到2100年增加较为明显,广州和珠海的耕地淹没面积增加幅度则较为缓和。从耕地淹没造成的农业产量损失来看,蔬菜、稻谷和花生等主要作物的损失产量比重呈现增加趋势,且蔬菜的增幅最大,其次是稻谷。其中广州、江门、阳江等地稻谷、花生、蔬菜的损失产量比重均表现为持续上升。     

淮海经济区协调发展度评价研究

基于区域协调发展的判定标准,构建区域协调发展的指标体系,通过线性加权模型和离差系数法分别计算出淮海经济区经济-社会-人口-资源-环境系统的综合发展水平得分和淮海经济区、苏北鲁南豫东皖北四大板块和20个市的协调度,通过对其分析得出以下结论：（1）淮海经济区处于低经济发展阶段的高协调度阶段;（2）市域协调度多处于中级基本协调阶段;（3）协调度呈现东高西低的空间格局。     

Paleohydrology and paleoclimate records in a saline prairie lake core: mineral,isotope and organic indicators

This pilot study examines the potential of obtaining a sedimentary record of paleoenvironmental/climatic/hydrologic conditions for saline Redberry Lake in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The tools are mineralogy, stable isotopes and pigments. The upper meter of an offshore sediment core contains 10 to 20% by weight aragonite (CaCO₃), which apparently precipitated in the water column. The ¹⁸O and ¹³C of the bulk aragonite (corrected for content of detrital calcite) vary by 4 to 5. Enrichment in ¹⁸O in aragonite is significantly correlated with pigment concentrations (chlorophyll a, phaeophytin). The ¹⁸O and pigment data provide evidence for relatively dry and/or warm conditions and high limnetic productivity for the period 2500 to 1500 yrs B.P. After 1500 B.P., the climate was apparently similar to the present, with two episodes of relatively enhanced productivity, dryness and/or warmth, at around 1000 to 900 and 500 to 200 B.P. During the past century, Redberry Lake has decreased approximately 8 m in depth and its salinity has doubled. No clear sedimentary signal was observed in response to these recent hydrologic trends. These changes have not been associated with a significant climate trend in the region, but may have been induced by land use changes in the catchment.This publication is the third of a series of papers presented at the Conference on Sedimentary and Paleolimnological Records of Saline Lakes. This Conference was held August 13–16, 1991 at the University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada. Dr. Evans is serving as Guest Editor for this series.     

江苏淤泥质潮滩对海平面变化的形态响应

通过对江苏滨海平原淤泥质潮滩1980年以来19个固定潮滩断面112个测次滩面高程测量的统计分析，探讨典型淤泥质潮滩剖面形态对海平面变化的形态响应过程。结果表明，典型淤涨岸段海平面上升，多年平均潮位线以上滩面仍将淤积加高，但淤高幅度除多年平均高潮线附近滩面相对较大外，其余均较小，表明随海平面上升该滩带总体淤积速率将趋于减小；与此相反，多年平均潮位线以下滩面则趋于蚀低，且侵蚀强度较大，表明该滩带的侵蚀有加剧趋向，最终滩面总体形态将因上带不断淤高和下带不断蚀低而逐渐变陡，剖面上凸形态的曲率不断加大。曲型侵蚀岸段，海平面上升的效应则相反，海平面上升，多年平均潮位线以上滩面强烈蚀低；而多年平均潮位线以下滩面则强烈淤积加高，剖面的上凹形态最终将因上带不断蚀低和下带不断淤高而趋于平直。