唐山M4.8级和宝坻M4.0级地震前的地电场异常变化

以2012年5月28日唐山M4．8级地震和6月18日天津市宝坻区M4．0级地震为研究对象,利用天津宝坻、静海及徐庄子地震台ZD9A大地电场仪的观测资料,使用地电场观测的同一测向长、短极距测值的比值法进行分钟值数据处理,结果表明地震前这3个台站地电场观测资料有不同程度的短临异常变化。     

辽宁省海绵城市建设中年径流总量控制率分区及其分布差异研究

利用1986—2015年辽宁省60个气象站逐日降雨量观测资料和1986—2015年美国国家环境预报中心/美国国家大气研究中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research,NCEP/NCAR)逐月全球的再分析资料,对辽宁省年径流总量控制率区域划分及其分区分布的差异进行分析。结果表明:辽宁省年径流总量控制率可以划分为Ⅱ区、Ⅲ区、Ⅳ区、Ⅴ区共4个区,比《海绵城市建设技术指南—低影响开发雨水系统构建》中辽宁省年径流总量控制率分区多1个Ⅴ区,且相同分区对应的空间分布差异明显;年平均降雨量对年径流总量控制率的分区趋势具有一定指示作用,总暴雨量占总降雨量的比例与年径流总量控制率的分区关系密切,辽宁省水汽输送的特征和地形地势是形成年径流总量控制率区域分布差异的内在成因。     

基于CRNBR物候算法的西双版纳橡胶成林提取及时空变化研究

基于西双版纳2014年和2018年旱季Landsat-8 OLI遥感影像,利用橡胶林落叶-新叶萌生期内归一化焚烧指数变化率（CR_NBR）算法,运用当年新叶萌生期植被分布（NDVI）与海拔数据（ASTER GDEM）进行掩膜提取,分别获取了2014年和2018年西双版纳橡胶成林种植面积,基于ArcGIS 10.5平台分析了橡胶成林时空格局和种植面积增减变化。结果表明： ① 西双版纳橡胶林主要分布于南部水热条件较好、中低海拔的橡胶种植适宜区。景洪市的橡胶林面积最大,其次是勐腊县,勐海县最小。集中分布于景洪市的勐龙镇、允景洪街道和嘎洒镇;勐腊县的关累镇、勐棒镇和勐满镇;② 西双版纳及其下辖一市两县2014-2018年橡胶林种植面积总体呈现下降趋势,减幅为17.27%。其中,勐腊县的减幅最大为19.10%,勐海县减幅最小,仅2.70%。③ 橡胶林持续种植区主要在景洪市勐龙镇、嘎洒镇和景哈镇等,勐腊县的关累镇、勐棒镇和勐腊镇等;橡胶林种植增加区主要集中在景洪市勐龙镇、嘎洒镇和允景洪街道,勐腊县关累镇、勐腊镇和勐伴镇,勐海县打洛镇;橡胶林种植减少区主要在景洪市勐养镇、嘎洒镇和勐龙镇,勐腊县勐棒镇、勐腊镇和勐伴镇,本研究可为西双版纳橡胶林种植现状特征提供了新的认识。     

海底地震仪的信号传递效果和噪声水平

单球式海底地震仪（以下简称OBS）由于其成本低、操作简便的优点在天然地震研究、人工地震探测中获得了广泛应用.本文首先分析多型进口和国产OBS在台湾海峡西部采集的地震数据,发现同一台OBS上的垂直向速度检波器（Z分量）的信噪比常显著低于压力检波器（H分量）,由于这两种检波器记录的都是海底的垂向振动信号,推测速度检波器的低信噪比更多的与仪器特性有关.然后从信号传递和噪声水平两方面分析影响速度检波器信噪比的因素：为检测速度检波器与OBS壳体的耦合效果,对某型宽频带OBS和陆上地震仪进行了同址同步观测试验,发现OBS的整机灵敏度有较大的差异;为分析速度检波器的水底噪声特征,以H分量记录作为基准,对比分析了同一台仪器不同站位的Z分量噪声水平,发现速度检波器在浅海区受到较大的次生干扰.本文指出OBS的内部耦合和水流次生干扰是至今尚未引起大家重视而又严重影响资料品质和多波探测成效的两个关键问题,这一研究结果对于改进OBS结构设计和制造工艺,以及OBS数据多分量处理方法研究有重要的参考意义.     

“泛西南”地区加卸载响应比异常及大震活动预测与追踪

21世纪初, 在中国西南及周边地区(本文称为“泛西南”)开始出现大面积的加卸载响应比(以下简称LURR)异常, 根据LURR异常演化, 我们于2008年首次提出该地区正在孕育着“超大地震”。 追踪研究结果显示, 孕震积分I_t于2012年7月达到峰值。 根据LURR与量纲分析方法结合得到的预测地震时空强的新方法, 我们预测: 2015年7月前后(±25月), 在“泛西南”地区将发生8级左右“超大地震”。 我们在2014年参加的两次会议上交流了这一预测结果, 2015年4月25日尼泊尔M_S8.1强震发生在预测范围内。 尼泊尔M_S8.1地震后, “泛西南”地区的加卸载响应比大尺度异常不仅没有消退, 反而更加增强。 I_t于2015年7月达到新峰值, 超过了尼泊尔地震前的水平, 因此, “泛西南”地区可能仍面临非常严重的地震灾害。     

The Igarapé Weir decelerated transport of contaminated sediment in the Paraopeba River after the failure of the B1 tailings dam (Brumadinho)

The B1 dam of Córrego do Feijão Mine, owned by Vale, S.A. mining company and located on the Ferro-Carvão stream, collapsed and injected 2.8 Mm³ of clayey, silty, and sandy iron- and manganese-rich tailings into the Paraopeba River (Minas Gerais state, Brazil). The accident occurred on 25 January 2019 and the tailings have been co-transported with coarser natural sediment since then, being partly trapped in the Igarapé Weir reservoir located on the Paraopeba River nearly 45 km downstream the injection point. The general purpose of the current study was to model suspended sediment transport in the vicinity of the Igarapé Weir aiming to assess the concomitant barrier effect imposed by this structure. Specifically, the spatial distributions of suspended clay, silt, and very fine-grained sand fractions (CSS) of sediment were mapped around the Igarapé Weir under low-flow (16 m³/s) and high-flow (5 to 10,000 years return period stream discharge; 699–2,699 m³/s) regimes, using RiverFlow2D as the modelling tool. The concentrations of the various grain materials in the upstream and downstream sectors were quantified linking the barrier effect to concentration reductions in the direction of stream flow. It was also a study goal to calculate differences of iron and manganese concentrations in the sediment + tailings mixtures along the Paraopeba River. The study results showed reductions in the CSS between 6.6% and 18%, from upstream to downstream of the Igarapé Weir, related with backwater effects, free and submerged hydraulic jumps, bank sedimentation in periods of high flow, and streambed sedimentation controlled by channel sinuosity and tailings density. These reductions were accompanied by drops in the concentrations of iron and manganese present in the clay and silt fractions, which varied between 6% and 42% under low flows and between 16% and 44% under high flows. Bank sedimentation was viewed as a potential threat to the riparian vegetation in the long-term. Dredging is the potentially most effective mitigation measure to help lead the Paraopeba River to a pre-rupture condition. The retention of sediment + tailings transported in suspension is less effective than the trapping of bedload sediment + tailings behind the Igarapé weir. The efficacy of sediment trapping is expected to be larger for natural sediment because it is much coarser than the tailings. In that context, the simulations revealed for the low-flow period that 33.6% of the sediment deposition comprised suspended transport of natural sediment (thus, was comprised 66.4% of bedload transport), this proportion rose to 86.9% for mixtures of natural sediment + tailings, a result that did not differ much for the high-flow periods.     

On the Compensation of Systematic Errors in Marine Gravity Measurements

Based on an analysis of the source of errors in marine gravity measurements, an error model, firstly, is constructed mathematically which can characterize the change of systematic errors and with which a new crossover adjustment model is presented in this paper. Then, two methods of compensating the systematic errors are proposed, i.e., the self-calibrating adjustment and the a-posteriori compensation. Some questions involved in solving the adjustment problem, such as the rank deficiency, the choice of error model, the weighting of model parameters and the significance test of compensation efficiency, etc., are discussed in detail. Finally, a practical survey network is used as a case study to test the efficiency and reliability of the two compensation methods.     

BOX-COX TRANSFORMATIONS IN THE ANALYSIS OF COMPOSITIONAL DATA

The statistical analysis of compositional data is of fundamental importance to practitioners in generaland to chemists in particular.The existing methodology is principally due to Aitchison,who effectivelyuses two transformations,a ratio followed by the logarithmic,to create a useful,coherent theory thatin principle allows the plethora of normal-based multivariate techniques to be used on the transformeddata.This paper suggests that the well-known class of Box-Cox transformations can be employed inplace of the logarithmic to significantly improve the existing methodology.This is supported in part byshowing that one of the most basic problems that Aitchison managed to overcome,namely thespecification of an interpretable covariance structure for compositional data,can be resolved,or nearlyresolved,once the ratio transformation has been applied.Hence the resolution is not directly dependenton the logarithmic transformation.It is then verified that access to the general Box-Cox family will allowa more accurate use of the normal-based multivariate techniques,simply because better fits to normalitycan be achieved.Finally,maximum likelihood estimation and some associated asymptotics are employedto construct confidence intervals for ratios of the true,unknown compositional constituents.Heretoforethis had not been done even in the context of the logarithmic transformation.Applications to real dataare presented.     

能谱特征参数与之差异及古铀量计算公式的修正

本文提出并论证了区域性钍铀比计算古铀量时所采用的正确表达式是　，而不是目前人们常用的　，并据此将古铀量计算公式　修正为     

自然金系列的光谱分析方法及其地质意义

采用光谱分析方法，对几种不同成因类型金矿中自然金进行金、银的测定，计算每粒自然金的金银比值，绘制这些自然金的金银比值连续系列曲线，客观地探讨金矿成矿规律和成矿作用条件，为金矿的地质研究和找矿提供新的手段。