Statistical Detection and Characterization of a Deviation from the Gutenberg-Richter Distribution above Magnitude 8

— We present a quantitative statistical test for the presence of a crossover c₀ in the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake seismic moments, separating the usual power-law regime for seismic moments less than c₀ from another faster decaying regime beyond c₀. Our method is based on the transformation of the ordered sample of seismic moments into a series with uniform distribution under condition of no crossover. A simulation method allows us to estimate the statistical significance of the null hypothesis H₀ of an absence of crossover (c₀=infinity). When H₀ is rejected, we estimate the crossover c₀ using two different competing models for the second regime beyond c₀ and the simulation method. For the catalog obtained by aggregating 14 subduction zones of the Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt, our estimate of the crossover point is log(c₀)=28.14 ± 0.40 (c₀ in dyne-cm), corresponding to a crossover magnitude m_W=8.1 ± 0.3. For separate subduction zones, the corresponding estimates are substantially more uncertain, so that the null hypothesis of an identical crossover for all subduction zones cannot be rejected. Such a large value of the crossover magnitude makes it difficult to associate it directly with a seismogenic thickness as proposed by many different authors. Our measure of c₀ may substantiate the concept that the localization of strong shear deformation could propagate significantly in the lower crust and upper mantle, thus increasing the effective size beyond which one should expect a change of regime.     

阿克苏霜期规律初探

通过分析1971～2000年阿克苏市初、终霜期及无霜期序列，初步探讨了它们的变化趋势、分布频率等气候特征，指出了初霜期推迟、终霜期提前、无霜期增长的变化趋势，而这种变化趋势与气候变暖理论相一致。     

水库汛期限制水位控制理论与观念的更新探讨

传统的水库汛限水位的控制,只利用了洪水的统计信息,使水库在汛期要时刻预防设计与校核洪水事件的发生,致使一些水库在汛期不敢蓄水而汛后又无水可蓄,造成洪水资源的浪费。提出水库汛限水位动态控制的新理念及其综合推理模式,适应当前预报技术的发展水平,考虑降雨径流洪水预报与一定时间内的短期降雨预报,排除不可能发生的洪水事件,预报可能发生的洪水,实施水库汛限水位的动态控制。但预报不可避免地存在误差,当小概率预报误差事件发生时,仍可采取弥补措施以确保大坝的防洪安全。     

某滑坡软弱夹层抗剪强度取值方法的研究

文章主要针对软弱夹层抗剪强度取值所存在的争议，通过对贵州新街子滑坡的软弱夹层分别选择比例极限、屈服极限及峰值作为剪应力值，采用最小二乘法获得比例抗剪强度、屈服抗剪强度和峰值抗剪强度。以参数选取中应用较为成熟的反分析方法推求力学性质参数c、φ值作为判据对以上3种参数进行比较。计算结果表明：本滑坡软弱夹层中由于含泥量较大，而且粘塑性较强，屈服抗剪强度和反分析得到的抗剪强度偏差最小，比例抗剪强度偏差最大，峰值抗剪强度居中。并以此3种抗剪强度进行天然状态下滑坡稳定性验算，结果表明选用比例极限抗剪强度与当前滑坡的地质现象不符，选用峰值极限抗剪强度安全储备较低，而选取屈服极限抗剪强度最为合理。用此参数进行设计，滑坡已经得到了良好的治理。在取值研究中认为采用试验与反分析相结合的方法确定滑坡稳定性计算参数是比较合理的。以上结论为滑坡中软弱夹层抗剪强度取值的选择提供了重要的依据。     

Nation states, ideological power and globalisation: can geographers catch the boat?

After a period of considerable and sustained hegemony, many commentators have argued that contemporary processes of globalisation are acting as a challenge to nation state sovereignty. The paper argues that geographers need to focus on the ways in which the nation state continues to act, albeit in a modified manner, within the era of globalisation. This might help to position geography within globalisation debates, which--according to Dicken [Geographers and `globalization': (yet) another missed boat? forthcoming, Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 2004]--we have not been centrally involved in. Drawing on the work of Michael Mann, we focus on a neglected dimension of state power--namely, its ideological form--as a means of exploring how the nation state is being differentially re-engineered under globalisation. Using Mann's classification of forms of ideological organisation, we deploy three vignettes in order to demonstrate the evolving nature of ideological power within the contemporary UK State.     

Plastic flow strength of jadeite and diopside investigated by microindentation hardness tests

Microindentation hardness tests were performed on jadeite and diopside, being end members of the omphacite solid solution series. At temperatures between 300 and 750 °C, the hardness of jadeite ranges from 7.4 to 8.5 GPa, that of diopside from 4.9 to 6.1 GPa. Jadeite is significantly stronger than diopside in the low-temperature plasticity regime. Normalization of the hardness-derived yield stress with respect to the shear modulus considerably reduces the strength contrast. The normalized Peierls stress is identical for jadeite and diopside. This indicates that jadeite and diopside belong to the same isomechanical group. The hardness-derived yield stress for jadeite as well as for diopside is used to estimate flow law parameters for the low-temperature plasticity regime.     

中巴地球资源一号卫星CCD图像质量评价和交叉定标研究

使用定量分析方法评价了中巴地球资源卫星CCD相机遥感数据质量 ,在此基础上利用LANDSAT 7ETM 对CCD的对应波段进行交叉定标计算 ,得到了一组CCD的参考定标系数。在遥感数据质量评价研究中 ,使用统计分析方法计算得到了CCD相机图像数据的条纹强度 ;应用结构函数方法计算获得了CCD的噪声数据 ;通过功率谱计算 ,对比分析了CCD和LANDSAT 7ETM 对应波段图像空间纹理特征。该文通过交叉定标计算 ,得到了CCD相机前 4个波段的参考定标系数、动态范围和噪声等效反射率等参考指标 ,并对这组定标系数进行了验证 ,从验证结果中发现CCD1,2 ,3和LANDSAT 7ETM 对应波段反射率最大相差 1 98% ,最小0 0 3% ,平均差要低于 1 31% ,而波段 4最大也仅相差 4 4 1% ,平均差 3 0 2 % ,证明计算得到的交叉定标系数具有较高的参考价值     

谈县级地震部门依法管理建设工程抗震设防要求

以山西省祁县依法管理工程抗震设防要求为例，论述了强制性审核、确定一般工业、民用建设工程抗震设防要求的重要性及其深远意义。结合工作实际．总结了部分依法行政、规范管理和落实抗震设防要求的经验。     

Knickpoint recession rate and catchment area: the case of uplifted rivers in Eastern Scotland

Knickpoint behaviour is a key to understanding both the landscape responses to a base‐level fall and the corresponding sediment fluxes from rejuvenated catchments, and must be accommodated in numerical models of large‐scale landscape evolution. Knickpoint recession in streams draining to glacio‐isostatically uplifted shorelines in eastern Scotland is used to assess whether knickpoint recession is a function of discharge (here represented by its surrogate, catchment area). Knickpoints are identified using DS plots (log slope versus log downstream distance). A statistically significant power relationship is found between distance of headward recession and catchment area. Such knickpoint recession data may be used to determine the values of m and n in the stream power law, E = KA^mSⁿ. The data have too many uncertainties, however, to judge definitively whether they are consistent with m = n = 1 (bedrock erosion is proportional to stream power and KPs should be maintained and propagate headwards) or m = 0·3, n = 0·7 (bedrock incision is proportional to shear stress and KPs do not propagate but degrade in place by rotation or replacement). Nonetheless, the E Scotland m and n values point to the dominance of catchment area (discharge) in determining knickpoint retreat rates and are therefore more consistent with the stream power law formulation in which bedrock erosion is proportional to stream power. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.