A 2000 year varve-based climate record from the central Brooks Range,Alaska

Varved minerogenic sediments from glacial-fed Blue Lake, northern Alaska, are used to investigate late Holocene climate variability. Varve-thickness measurements track summer temperature recorded at Atigun Pass, located 41 km east at a similar elevation (r ² = 0.31, P = 0.08). Results indicate that climate in the Brooks Range from 10 to 730 AD (varve year) was warm with precipitation inferred to be higher than during the twentieth century. The varve-temperature relationship for this period was likely compromised and not used in our temperature reconstruction because the glacier was greatly reduced, or absent, exposing sub-glacial sediments to erosion from enhanced precipitation. Varve-inferred summer temperatures and precipitation decreased after 730 AD, averaging 0.4°C above the last millennial average (LMA = 4.2°C) from 730 to 850 AD, and 0.1°C above the LMA from 850 to 980 AD. Cooling culminated between 980 and 1030 AD with temperatures 0.7°C below the LMA. Varve-inferred summer temperatures increased between 1030 and 1620 AD to the LMA, though the period between 1260 and 1350 AD was 0.2°C below the LMA. Although there is no equivalent to the European Medieval Warm Period in the Blue Lake record, two warm intervals occurred from 1350 to 1450 AD and 1500 to 1620 AD (0.4 and 0.3°C above the LMA, respectively). During the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1620 to 1880 AD), inferred summer temperature averaged 0.2°C below the LMA. After 1880 AD, inferred summer temperature increased to 0.8°C above the LMA, glaciers retreated, but aridity persisted based on a number of regional paleoclimate records. Despite warming and glacial retreat, varve thicknesses have not achieved pre-730 AD levels. This reflects limited sediment availability and transport due to a less extensive retreat compared to the first millennium, and continued relative aridity. Overall, the Blue Lake record is similar to varve records from the eastern Canadian Arctic that document a cool LIA and twentieth century warming. However, the occurrence and timing of events, such as the LIA and Medieval Warm Period, varies considerably among records, suggesting heterogeneous climatic patterns across the North American Arctic.

鄱阳湖流域史前人类遗址时空分布及其环境响应（英文）

The temporal-spatial geographic distribution of archaeological sites and its feature between 10.0–2.8 ka BP(ka BP= thousands of years before 0 BP, where "0 BP" is defined as the year AD 1950) were determined, based on GIS spatial analysis in the Poyang Lake Basin. The relationship between geographic distribution of sites of different periods under subsistence existence of ancient civilizations, climate and environmental change was investigated. The results revealed numerous archaeological sites of the Neolithic Age(10.0–3.6 ka BP). The sites were mainly located in the northern part of the Poyang Lake Basin, a hilly and mountainous area with many river terraces suitable for the development of human civilization. The number of archaeological sites rapidly increased during the Shang and Zhou dynasties(3.6–2.8 ka BP) and spread widely on the floodplains of the middle and lower reaches of Ganjiang River and onto the west, south, and southeast beach areas of the Poyang Lake. Holocene records of climate change suggested that it was possible that climate fluctuations had a great impact on human evolution in the study area. Before 3.6 ka BP, westward and northward expansion of Neolithic cultures in the Poyang Lake watershed occurred under the background of climate amelioration(becoming warmer and wetter). The ancient people lived in the hilly areas with high elevation. The simple mode of a fishing and gathering economy was mostly suited to this area in the early Neolithic Age. The scope of human activities was expanded and cultural diversity developed in the late Neolithic Age. However, with population growth and increasing survival pressure in a dry-cold climatic stage after 3.6 ka BP, this simple living mode had to be abandoned, and various forms of economy, the majority being agriculture, were developed on flood plains of the lower reaches of numerous rivers around Poyang Lake. This promoted flourishing of the Bronze culture of South China.     

From vulnerability to immunization—A genealogy of early attempts to deal with the climate

In an age of anthropogenic climate change, risk and vulnerability have become common parlance. Yet the histories of both concepts are bound up in the colonial project. This article attempts to give a brief genealogy of these concepts by considering their evolution within early colonial attempts to deal with the dangers and threats posed by a tropical climate. This article argues that British and French colonial writers and administrators began to understand the dangers associated with colonizing distant lands as distinct risks associated with living in a tropical climate. Tropical fevers, ecological devastation, famine and revolt in particular spurred on the development of new knowledge, which advanced understandings of the effects of the tropical climate both on European health and long‐term colonial ambitions. In turn the concept of a pernicious tropical climate that posed a biological threat to the health of Europeans came to play a major role in configuring prevailing notions of race, health and morality. Risk and vulnerability have been key discursive features of new knowledges and governmental technologies crafted in the context of colonialism to secure European rule over distant lands and people.     

气候变化和人类活动对中国地表水文过程影响定量研究

利用中国372个水文站月径流数据（1960-2000年）及41个水文站年径流数据（2001-2014年）,采用基于Budyko假设的水热耦合平衡方程,构建气候变化和人类活动对径流变化影响定量评估模型,在Penman-Monteith潜在蒸发分析基础上,进一步分析气象因子对径流变化的弹性系数,量化气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明：① 中国北方地区流域径流变化对各气象因子弹性系数明显大于中国南方地区。就全国而言,径流变化对各因子的弹性系数为：降水>土地利用/土地覆盖变化（LUCC）>相对湿度>太阳辐射>最高气温>风速>最低气温;② 1980-2000年,气候变化总体上有利于增加中国年径流量,而降水对年径流量增加的贡献最为显著;③ 1980-2000年,中国南方流域中,气候变化对年径流变化的影响以增加作用为主,而北方流域,以减少年径流作用为主。对中国大多数流域径流变化而言,人类活动的影响主要以减少年径流量为主。2001-2014年,气候变化以减少径流量为主,人类活动对径流变化的影响程度明显增强,气候变化与人类活动对径流变化的贡献率分别为53.5%、46.5%。该研究对气候变化与人类活动影响下,中国水资源规划管理、防灾减灾及保障水资源安全具有重要理论与现实意义。     

两种形态ENSO对南半球热带外气候变化特征的影响

本研究利用1979—2012年欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的ORAP5(Ocean Reanalysis Pilot 5)海洋/海冰再分析资料和ERA-Interim气象再分析资料,采用回归分析方法,分1979—1998年和1999—2012年两个时间段探讨了南半球热带外地区气候变化对两种不同形态ENSO的响应特征。结果表明,南半球热带外区域气候在1999年前后两个时段对ENSO的响应表现出了较大的年代际变化特征。1979—1998年南半球热带外气候变量对Nio3指数在时间上的相关性和空间上的响应强度都普遍大于Nio4指数,说明这一时段东部型ENSO对南半球热带外区域气候变化的影响要更强一些。在1999—2012年,不同形态ENSO与气候变量的相关性大小并无明显的规律,而且空间响应场的差异性并不大。海平面气压、风场和气温对ENSO变化的响应在南半球冬季表现最为强烈,在夏季最弱。三者在1999—2012年秋季对Nio3指数和Nio4指数的响应场中出现了纬向三波数结构。1999—2012年冬季,有异于海平面气压和风场,在罗斯海和阿蒙森海海域海表气温对Nio4变化的正响应明显强于对Nio3的响应,该特征在混合层温度中也有体现,表明海表气温随ENSO的变化受海洋特征变化影响较大。混合层深度和混合层温度的响应场之间存在很大的相关性,混合层温度响应在秋季表现最强,春季最弱,混合层深度响应与之相反。在1979—1998年,海冰密集度对不同Nio指数变化的响应差异主要出现在海冰结冰季节,而海冰厚度对不同Nio指数变化的响应差异在夏季表现较强。海冰密集度和厚度对Nio3变化响应的年代际差异在秋冬季节更加明显,对Nio4变化响应的年代际差异在秋、冬、春季都较明显。     

A darkling beetle population in West Texas during the 1997–1998 El Niño

We examined the abundance and distribution of Eleodes extricata (Tenebrionidae) in a semi-arid region of West Texas. During the 2-year study, climatic conditions were extreme but opposite, with 1997 being unusually wet and mild, and 1998 being unusually dry and hot. These conditions were associated with striking differences in the population structure of the beetles. Under identical pitfall-sampling efforts, we captured 1562 and 671 individuals in 1997 and 1998, respectively. Capture rates were lowest in grassland, and highest in sand shinnery oak, and within the latter, they were lowest in blowouts, intermediate along the edges of blowouts, and highest under vegetative cover. Sex ratios were consistently female-biased, and the degree of bias increased from spring through fall in both years. These increases were more pronounced in 1998, with the sex ratios of early and late sampling periods differing by over four-fold, from 1·15 to 5·00. Females were heavier than males, and the dry masses of both sexes increased from spring though fall in both years. As with sex ratios, these increases were more pronounced in 1998. Only the largest beetles survived the drought, illustrating how extreme conditions can exert especially strong directional selection, and affect sex ratios in populations with sexual size dimorphism.     

农业对气候变化的脆弱性

随着对气候变化研究的不断深入,气候变化脆弱性问题也得到了更多的关注。相对于水资源、森林等其他自然生态系统,农业受气候变化的影响最大,科学地评价其对气候变化的脆弱性,对于制定合理有效的适应对策具有重要意义。从气候变化脆弱性与农业对气候变化脆弱性的定义、研究内容和评价方法等角度综述了研究进展,在此基础上分析了目前该领域存在的问题,包括情景应用、方法和不确定性等方面,并展望了未来脆弱性评价的发展方向。     

1963、1976年两次不同ELNino事件的差异以及我国旱涝和台风的对比分析

本文通过对1963、1976年两次ELNino事件的分析指出:两次ELNino事件在很多方面较为一致,其主要差别是ELNino开始的地理位置(主要是经度位置)和海温分布不同。同时,又分析了两类不同型式的ELNino年对我国干旱、雨涝和登陆台风的影响。     

基于遗传算法优化BP神经网络的玉米遥感估产方法

以内蒙古自治区开鲁县玉米作物为研究对象,将生育期内玉米遥感影像所提取的多种植被指数和实地采样点的测产数据作为训练值,利用BP(back propagation)神经网络和遗传算法优化BP(GA-BP)神经网络估产模型,得出网络预测的玉米产量数值。通过决定系数R 2和均方根误差RMSE,比较实测产量与预测产量之间的精度,BP神经网络模型R^2为0.8452,RMSE(%)为28.37;遗传算法优化BP神经网络模型R^2为0.9850,RMSE(%)为6.70,表明遗传算法优化BP神经网络估产模型具有一定可行性和可信度。     

华南地区城市化对区域气候变化的影响

按照人口数将华南地区站点分为大城市站、一般城市站、郊区站,并利用华南地区1960~2011年的站点观测资料分别计算了3类站点年平均、季节平均的气温、高温日数、降水、相对湿度、风速、日照时数距平序列的变化,分析了城市化对华南地区区域气候的影响。结果表明:相较于背景场,大城市的平均气温有更明显的上升趋势;高温日数在3类站点中均有增加的趋势,在城市化的影响下,大城市的高温日数有明显的增加;平均气温日较差在整个华南地区均有下降趋势,特别是在大城市中。在3类站点中,降雨总量均有减少的趋势,且降雨更多的以中雨及以上的形式表现。该地区的相对湿度、风速、日照时数均呈现减少趋势,在城市化影响下,大城市的相对湿度、风速、日照时数均有明显的减少。华南地区处于我国最大的城市群之一——珠江三角洲地区,同时处于气候系统复杂的热带季风区,因此有必要研究城市化对该地区多个气象变量的可能影响。