气侯时间序列变点的推断

本文研究时间序列的变点问题。所给出的统计方法可用来推断一个时间序列是否存在变点，存在几个变点以及变点在什么位置。这种统计推断方法可用于气候阶段的划分。     

Main features of regional circulation variation during onset of the south china sea monsoon in 1998

1.IntroductionTheAsiansummermonsoonconsistsoftwosystems,i.e.,theSouthAsianmonsoonandtheEastAsianmonsoon.TheSouthChinaSea(SCS)monsoonisoneoftheimportantsubsystemsoftheEastAsianmonsoon.IthaslongbeenconcernedabouttherelationshipoftheSCSmonsoonwithchangesofthegeneralcirculationandweatherpatternsinadjacentregions.TaoandChen(1987)suggestedthattheonsetoftheAsiansummermonsoonstartsfirstinthenorthernSCSusuallyinmid--May,thenpropagatesnorthwardtothemainlandofChinaandthewesternPacificsouthofJap…     

Temporal and Spatial Variations in the Climate Controls of Vegetation Dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau during 1982–2011

The ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau is highly susceptible to climate change. Currently, there is little discussion on the temporal changes in the link between climatic factors and vegetation dynamics in this region under the changing climate.By employing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data, the Climatic Research Unit temperature and precipitation data,and the in-situ meteorological observations, we report the temporal and spatial variations in the relationships between the vegetation dynamics and climatic factors on the Plateau over the past three decades. The results show that from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s, vegetation dynamics in the central and southeastern part of the Plateau appears to show a closer relationship with precipitation prior to the growing season than that of temperature. From the mid-1990s, the temperature rise seems to be the key climatic factor correlating vegetation growth in this region. The effects of increasing temperature on vegetation are spatially variable across the Plateau: it has negative impacts on vegetation activity in the southwestern and northeastern part of the Plateau, and positive impacts in the central and southeastern Plateau. In the context of global warming, the changing climate condition(increasing precipitation and significant rising temperature) might be the potential contributor to the shift in the climatic controls on vegetation dynamics in the central and southeastern Plateau.     

气团分类及其与贵州气候灾害的关系

通过对贵州3站点历年逐日地面气象要素进行统计分类，分析影响贵州的气团活动规律，并对贵州气候灾害与各类气团活动频数作相关分析。结果表明：贵州气候受多种气团活动的影响，各型气团对应特定的天气特征及一定的环流背景。另外，气候灾害与某些气团活动变化具有很好的相关性，这对进一步研究贵州气候变化及气候灾害成因具有一定的现实意义。     

珠江流域1961-2007年气候变化及2011-2060年预估分析

 根据珠江流域1961-2007年气温、降水量观测资料和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式2011-2060年预估结果,分析了流域过去47 a的气温和降水量变化,并预估未来50 a变化趋势。结果表明,在全球变暖的背景下,过去47 a温度呈上升趋势,约升高1.8℃。冬季增温最明显,夏季最弱。未来50 a流域温度仍呈上升趋势,A1B情景下升幅约1.9℃,并且年际变化增强。A2和B1两种排放情景下秋季升温最显著,冬季最弱,A1B排放情景与此相反。过去47 a秋季降水量呈减少趋势;春、夏、冬季和年降水量均呈增加趋势。未来50 a降水总体呈增加趋势,A1B排放情景降水增加最多,约为230 mm。A2、A1B和B1情景下降水季节分配未发生显著变化。年降水和冬季降水的年际变率增强,秋季减弱。     

我国南方冬季气候变暖前后极端降水事件分析

利用我国南方逐日降水资料及逐月温度资料,采用Mann-Kendall突变检验方法,并计算极端降水的GPD(Generalized Pareto Distribution)重现值,讨论了气候变暖前后我国南方冬季极端降水事件的变化。结果表明,我国南方冬季气候变暖的突变发生在1991年前后,且气候变暖后我国南方冬季的极端降水强度普遍有所增加。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料进一步分析气候变暖前后的环流场特征,发现东亚热带冬季风异常与我国华南、江南地区降水异常有显著的相关关系。东亚热带冬季风偏强(弱),华南、江南地区降水偏少(多)。气候变暖后中高纬度环流经向度加大,有利于北方的冷空气向南输送。此外,气候变暖后我国南方地面气温升高,海陆热力差异减小,东亚热带冬季风减弱,有利于西太平洋的暖湿气流向我国大陆东南部输送,并在东南部形成异常的水汽通量辐合,有利于形成强降水。气候变暖后,中高纬度与中低纬度异常环流系统的相互作用是我国东南部降水强度增加的主要原因。     

内陆干旱区生态环境系统与气候系统关系的分析评述

对内陆干旱区生态环境系统的结构与功能、近期变化及其成因,生态环境系统与气候系统的关系,生态环境保护、治理、建设与经济社会协调发展的基本关系等进行综合分析和评估,论述了气象与生态环境工作之间的内在联系,为气象部门在拓展生态环境领域工作中进行顶层设计提供了科学依据。     

福建永安雷暴气候特征分析

通过统计福建省永安市1958—2007年逐日雷暴观测资料,找出雷暴发生时空分布、年际、月际和日变化特征。结果表明：永安市雷暴日50年平均68．12日,年际变化呈波动减少趋势,3—9月是雷暴发生的高发期,占全年雷暴的95．3％,月际雷暴发生次数呈单峰型特征,峰值出现在8月,16—17时是一天中发生雷暴的最高期,西南方向发生的雷暴略多于其它方向。     

Status of the Recent Declining of Arctic Sea Ice Studies

In the past 30 years, a large-scale change occurred in the Arctic climatic system, which had never been observed before 1980s. At the same time, the Arctic sea ice experienced a special evolution with more and more rapidly dramatic declining. In this circumstance, the Arctic sea ice became a new focus of the Arctic research. The recent advancements about abrupt change of the Arctic sea ice are reviewed in this paper .The previous analyses have demonstrated the accelerated declining trend of Arctic sea ice extent in the past 30 years, based on in-situ and satellite-based observations of atmosphere, as well as the results of global and regional climate simulations. Especially in summer, the rate of decrease for the ice extents was above 10% per decade. In present paper, the evolution characteristics of the arctic sea ice and its possible cause are discussed in three aspects, i.e. the sea ice physical properties, the interaction process of sea ice, ocean and atmosphere and its response and feedback mechanism to global and arctic climate system.     

古气候演化特征、驱动与反馈及对现代气候变化研究的启示意义

古气候与现代气候变化研究如何有效结合,特别是古气候研究如何为理解现代气候变化过程提供背景条件、边界约束和理论框架,值得深入探讨。文章以现代、历史时期、全新世、晚第四纪和新生代为时间基线,回顾阐述了过去气候演变特征、成因机制及其对现代气候变化研究的启示意义,探讨了过去与现代气候变化融合研究中存在的不确定性。过去气候演化过程的研究,加深了人们对地球气候系统运行机制的理解。研究表明,各个时期中,地球气候经历了不同相位、幅度和速率的变化,气候系统各分量之间发生了复杂的相互作用,以地表温度为代表的地球表面热力环境演化是各不同阶段气候变化的基本表现形式。全球温度变化不仅受到太阳输出辐射、地球轨道参数和地球构造运动等的影响,而且与地球表层水圈中的海洋、冰冻圈中的大陆冰盖、生物圈中的海洋浮游生物和陆地植被,以及大气圈中的温室气体、粉尘气溶胶、水汽和云等活跃组分之间,存在着多尺度复杂反馈作用。在同一时间尺度上,气候系统分量的互馈通路可能是同向的、可比的,各分量之间的对应关系或具有一致性,研究结论对于预估未来气候变化有借鉴意义;但在不同时间尺度上,气候系统各分量之间的相互联系机制可能难有一致性和可比性,古今互鉴,就需要慎重。