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141.
本文根据小浪底水库地区的地震地质和水文地质条件,浅析了水库诱发地震的可能性,并对其最大震级进行了多种方法的估算预测。 相似文献
142.
《The Professional geographer》1988,40(2):243-247
software reviews are in this article MACATLAS . Number Cruncher Statistical System (NCSS) TRANSPRO FIRE-ROUTER 相似文献
143.
本文介绍了一个根据测站的经度(或纬度)打印任意空间剖面图的实用程序,通过自定义坐标,可打印在国家气象局制的6300号底图上。本程序采用BASIC语言,已在 Apple-Ⅱ上实现,对其中的部分语句修改后,也可以用于IBM-PC等其它微机上,用本程序制图,速度快,准确性高,可作为日常性的天气分析预报工具。 相似文献
144.
Pao-Shan?YuEmail author Shien-Tsung?Chen Chia-Jung?Chen Tao-Chang?Yang 《Natural Hazards》2005,34(2):131-150
This study applies the fuzzy multi-objective approach to forecast short-term (around 24 h) typhoon rainfall, which can be implemented without much background meteorological knowledge. The physical characteristics of 40 typhoons, including route, central pressure, central velocity and cyclonic radius, were used as the data set. The fuzzy multi-objective method mined information from the database to forecast both the depth and pattern of rainfall, which were then combined to estimate a cumulative rainfall curve. The results of calibration with reference to 40 historical typhoon events and the results of validation using another five typhoon events indicate that the proposed model has the potential to forecast short-term cumulative rainfall curves if more variables can be included and more historical typhoon events can be collected to enlarge the database. 相似文献
145.
《The Journal of geography》2012,111(3):129-132
Abstract The benefits of weather forecasting contests within geography departments are reaffirmed. The greatly increased ease of conducting such contests in the new millennium is stressed. Some of the specifics of the forecasting contest at Salisbury University are discussed. In addition, the advantages of a departmental contest over a national contest are presented, and suggestions for future research are listed. 相似文献
146.
基于时间序列法的北京市需水量预报(英文) 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
It is essential to establish the water resources exploitation and utilization planning,which is mainly based on recognizing and forecasting the water consumed structure rationally and scientifically.During the past 30 years(1980-2009),mean annual precipitation and total water resource of Beijing have decreased by 6.89% and 31.37% compared with those perennial values,respectively,while total water consumption during the same period reached pinnacle historically.Accordingly,it is of great significance for the harmony between socio-economic development and environmental development.Based on analyzing total water consumption,agricultural,industrial,domestic and environmental water consumption,and evolution of water consumed structure,further driving forces of evolution of total water consumption and water consumed structure are revealed systematically.Prediction and discussion are achieved for evolution of total water consumption,water consumed structure,and supply-demand situation of water resource in the near future of Beijing using Time Series Forecasting Method.The purpose of the endeavor of this paper is to provide scientific basis for the harmonious development between socio-economy and water resources,for the establishment of rational strategic planning of water resources,and for the social sustainable development of Beijing with scientific bases. 相似文献
147.
《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2012,66(2):104-113
The article compares the accuracy of forecasted and actual supply chain cost and price factors in a Nordic paper mill's sales to customers in two large European countries. Empirical longitudinal research data covering the years between 2002 and 2008 were obtained from a large integrated Finnish paper mill, and consisted of sales volumes, paper prices, variable costs, and transport costs. It was expected that the mill would be able to forecast demand, prices and costs accurately, but the empirical findings showed that the forecasts for paper price, demand, and cost varied from one market to another and were not highly accurate. In addition, the forecasting of gross margins seemed to be very inexact. It is concluded that there is a need for more reliable forecasting methods in the paper industry to anticipate economic development as paper demand and costs change. 相似文献
148.
Formation of an Interactive User-Oriented Forecasting System: Experience from Hydrological Application in Linyi, Eastern China 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
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YAN Zhongwei HAN Jiarui JIAO Meiyan CHEN Jing YE Qian ZHAO Linn TU Kai 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2012,26(1):13-25
Having provided an overview of the ideas of developing user-oriented interactive forecast system (UIFS) emerging in recent years,the authors proposed an idealized framework of the new-generation meteorological system,which includes the initial user-end module for configuring the forecast target,the physical predictive and downscaling components,and an incessant assessing module in association with decision-making at the user-end.A case study was carried out with a focus on applying the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble;THORPEX stands for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) precipitation forecasts for the hydrological users in Linyi,a region richest in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China.The preliminary results exhibited great potential of improvement in applications of weather forecasts by combining the user-end information.Although the TIGGE results provided by existing national/international operating models were independent from the user-end,the case study enlightened ways of establishing an iteratively self-improving UIFS involving user-orientation throughout the forecast process. 相似文献
149.
Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasting Based on Ensemble Output Using Generalized Additive Models and Bayesian Model Averaging 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
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A probabilistic precipitation forecasting model using generalized additive models (GAMs) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) was proposed in this paper.GAMs were used to fit the spatial-temporal precipi... 相似文献
150.