Sector collapse,sedimentation and clast population evolution at an active island-arc volcano: Stromboli,Italy

Sciara del Fuoco is the subaerial part of a partially filled sector-collapse scar that extends to 700 m below sea level on Stromboli volcano. The collapse occurred <5000 years ago, involved 1.81 km³ of rock and is the latest of a series of major collapses on the north-west flank of Stromboli. A north-east trending arc-axial fault system channels magmas into the volcano and has caused tilting and/or downthrow to the north-west. The slope of the partial cone constructed between the lateral walls of the collapse scar acts as a channelway to the sea for most eruptive products. From 700 m below sea level and extending to >2200 m and >10 km from the shore to the NNW, a fan-shaped mounded feature comprises debris avalanche deposits (>4 km³) from two or more sector collapses. Volcaniclastic density currents originating from Sciara del Fuoco follow the topographic margin of the debris avalanche deposits, although overbank currents and other unconfined currents widely cover the mounded feature with turbidites. Historical (recorded) eruptive activity in Sciara del Fuoco is considerably less than that which occurred earlier, and much of the partial fill may have formed from eruptions soon after the sector collapse. It is possible that a mass of eruptive products similar to that in the collapse scar is dispersed as volcanogenic sediment in deep water of the Tyrhennian basin. Evidence that the early post-collapse eruptive discharge was greater than the apparent recent flux (2kg/s) counters suggestions that a substantial part of Stromboli's growth has been endogenous. The partial fill of Sciaria del Fuoco is dominated by lava and spatter layers, rather than by the scoria and ash layers classically regarded as main constituents of Strombolian (cinder) cones. Much of the volcanic slope beneath the vents is steeper than the angle of repose of loose tephra, which is therefore rapidly transported to the sea. Delicate pyroclasts that record the magmatic explosivity are selectively destroyed and diluted during sedimentary transport, mainly in avalanches and by shoreline wave reworking, and thus the submarine deposits do not record well the extent and diversity of explosive activity and associated clast-forming processes. Considerable amounts of dense (non-vesicular) fine sand and silt grains are produced by breakage and rounding of fragments of lava and agglutinate. The submarine extension of the collapse scar, and the continuing topographic depression to >2200 m below sea level, are zones of considerable by-passing of fine sand and silt, which are transported in turbidity currents. Evidently, volcanogenic sediments dispersed around island volcanoes by density currents are unlikely to record well the true spectrum and relative importance of clast-forming processes that occurred during an eruption. Marine sedimentary evidence of magmatic explosivity is particularly susceptible to partial or complete obliteration, unless there is a high rate of discharge of pyroclastic material into the sea.     

Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.     

长江中下游夏季高温灾害机理及预测

利用我国1961-2003年夏季（6—8月）高温资料，建立长江中下游地区主要城市强高温及高温过程较完整的时间序列，探讨了该地区主要城市高温气候特征。分析该地区南京、杭州、南昌等城市夏季高温灾害机理，东亚副热带高压是造成长江中下游地区城市夏季高温的主要影响系统。在此基础上用均生函数-最佳子回归集构造预测模型，预测夏季月高温出现日数，通过42a高温资料预报检验，有较好的预测效果，值得在业务中应用。     

用逐步回归预测棉铃虫发生期和发生量

收集了1973年至2000年的气象，农作物、棉铃虫虫害等196年因子，以运城、汾阳和临汾为山西省代表站，利用最优二分割法把发生量分为10级，5级和不分级3种情况；使用逐步回归计算了219个模型，从中选出27个棉铃虫二、三代发生期，发生量最优模型，在农气服务中应用，预报准确率为95％，效果良好。     

影响我国北方的台风相似预报系统

普查建国以来影响我国北方的所有台风个例 ,建立了影响我国北方的台风详细历史资料库 ,对台风位置、形成季节、移向、天气形势等进行相似分析 ,并在MICAPS平台上 ,建立了短期和中期台风相似预报系统。     

How to obtain alert velocity thresholds for large rockslides

A reliable forecast of the failure stage of large rockslides is difficult, because of non-linear time dependency of displacements and seasonal effects. Aim of this paper is to suggest a practical method to prepare alert thresholds for large rockslides, assessing critical values of velocity for carrying out civil protection actions using monitoring data. Adopted data concern the 20 Mm³ Ruinon rockslide (Valfurva, Central Alps, Italy), still evolving and suitable to originate a fast moving rock avalanche. Multitemporal analysis of aerial photos, LIDAR-ALTM laser topography, field survey and geomechanical analyses allowed to infer the rockslide kinematics and better understand data provided by a monitoring network including distometers, extensometers, GPS benchmarks and inclinometers. The analysis of displacement and rainfall data over five years (1997–2001) allowed to recognise three different evolutionary patterns of displacements, showing a continuously increasing rate since 1997. Data representing large-scale behaviour of the rock mass were fitted by power-law curves, according to the “accelerating creep” model by Voight, in order to evaluate a suitable failure time. This was hampered by the large seasonal deviations, which can significantly delay the occurrence of failure. Data were fitted using the Voight’s equation, expressed in terms of displacement, through non-linear estimation techniques, in order to find values of the controlling parameters (A, α and t_f) suitable to represent the mechanical behaviour of the rock mass approaching the failure. This allowed to compute velocity–time theoretical curves and to define different velocity threshold values (pre-alert, alert and emergency) to be used for emergency management.     

不同损失条件下的泥石流预报模型

泥石流预报是泥石流减灾的重要手段之一，然而泥石流形成的复杂性使泥石流预报准确度低，误报和漏报率较高。泥石流误报和漏报都会造成损失，但二者造成的损失有很大的差别。为了减少泥石流误报或漏报造成的损失，应当考虑两种错报造成损失的不同。根据使总平均损失达到最小的原则，建立了不同损失条件下的泥石流预报模型，并将该模型应用到云南东川蒋家沟。     

灰色系统理论预测大气氮氧化物污染的应用

根据中国南方某省所辖城市近年来N0x污染指数的测量数据的统计资料，建立了GM(1，1）灰色预测模型，通过预测探讨了大气中氮氧化物指数的变化趋势。所建模型残差仅1．17％，关联系数为0．9067，精度较高，具有较好的可行性和适应性，可以为管理规则提供决策依据。     

河西走廊东部强雷暴天气分析与预报

根据1961～2000年武威站雷暴天气实况资料分析了河西走廊东部40年强雷暴天气发生的气候规律，并研究了河西走廊东部强雷暴天气发生的4种环流背景及4种主要天气条件，归纳总结出其短期预报着眼点，为雷暴天气预报业务系统的研制奠定了基础。     

影响广西的孟湾风暴

统计分析了1973年以来影响广西的孟湾风暴天气气候情况及环流特征,总结出该类天气演变的一般规律及预报着眼点,为提高天气预报准确率提供有益参考。