产业技术变迁与全球技术创新体系空间演化

以1990~2014年全球96个国家和地区为研究对象,在对全球产业技术变迁研究基础上,对全球技术创新体系的等级层次性及其演化机制进行研究。结果发现： ① IPC（International Patent Classification,国际专利分类）-USPC（United States Patent Classification,美国专利分类）-NAICS（North American Industry Classification System,北美产业分类体系）的专利分类至产业分类识别系统为研究不同空间尺度下的产业技术创新变迁提供了全新的视角和方法,全球最具创新力的产业有着由机械产业向信息通信产业变迁的趋势;② 以信息通信产业、机械产业、电气设备产业和医疗设备产业为代表的全球产业技术创新能力在这25 a间都呈现出显著的两极分化和空间集聚趋势;③ 全球技术创新体系正由大西洋格局向太平洋格局演进,东亚地区成为全球技术创新的增长极;④ 国家研发支出规模、国家经济规模和国家文化包容性对国家技术创新能力有着明显的正向影响,但研发人员数量和国家人口总数对国家技术创新能力的作用不明显。     

意大利旅游地类型划分与旅游业的发展

本文对意大利的旅游地进行类型划分，并对意大利旅游业的空间分布格局进行了分析，在此基础上对该国旅游业近期的发展战略提出了几点意见。     

多光谱卫星图像降水强度场的分析

文中将单位特征空间归类方法应用于多光谱GMS卫星图像的降水强度场分析 ,该方法可交互式地进行多光谱卫星信息和地面实测降水的协同分析 ,准确划分各强度样本集群的光谱特征空间分布 ,为可靠确定各波段卫星测值与小时降水量之间的统计关系提供了一条可行的途径。为尽量减少分界点附近数据可能造成的不确定性和误差 ,文中首先按模糊集合论的隶属度原则 ,建立了模糊划分公式。按所在降水强度等级 ,通过对多维光谱空间的各单位特征空间内计算和比较晴空、多云 (无雨 )、小雨、中雨、大雨和暴雨 6种情况发生的概率 ,经归一化处理后 ,分别建立相应的降水强度类属矩阵 ,为多光谱卫星图像降水强度场的分析确定了判识依据。就IR1 VIS降水强度类属矩阵而言 ,经 5 0 0余个实测有雨样本的检验 ,其对暴雨、大雨、中雨和小雨等各强度等级有雨样本的实测命中率均在 70 %左右。近 14 0 0个有云样本降水强度等级判识的总准确率为 73.88%。把样本仅分成无雨、中小雨和大、暴雨 3个等级进行分析 ,实测命中率和分析成功率都显著提高 ,总准确率达到 84 .4 9%。IR1 WV ,TIR1-IR2 降水强度类属矩阵 ,各项指标虽然均略低于IR1 VIS降水强度类属矩阵 ,但对无雨、中小雨和大到暴雨的 3个级判识 ,总准确率也能够达到 75 %。     

FUZZY PROBABILITY PREDICTION METHOD FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK

Based on forecasting criteria of tropical cyclone categories of left and right turning and stable track and fuzzy mathematical principles, a fuzzy probability prediction method is formulated for track changes. It is 48-h valid for forecasting sudden change or stable track as well as giving fuzzy probability of trajectory, for the use in decision-making. As shown in operational experiments, if is easy to operate, simple to illustrate, objective to quantify.definite to conclude. and satisfactory to actualize. It is dependable with high level of reference, especially when the fuzzy probability is greater than 70%. for errors in direction and 48-h mean distance errors are all lower than those at major forecasting centers at home or abroad.     

东北地区大地热流数据的分布及分析

系统地收集了国内已公开发表的东北地区热流数据８１个,并对其进行了初步统计分析。这些数据的地理分布还很不均匀,热流值变化范围为３０－９４ｍＷ／ｍ＾２,多种统计平均方法得到的结果表明,东北大陆地区平均热流值变化范围为６０－６３ｍＷ／ｍ６２。然后,根据上述统计结果初步讨论了我国东北地区地热场分布的基本特征和概况,并阐述了这项研究的地质和地球物理意义。     

Robust multivariate procedures applied to the interpretation of atypical individuals of a Cretaceous foraminifer

Robust multivariate statistical methods are applied to samples of the Cretaceous bolivinid foraminifer Afrobolivina afra, in which individuals from microspheric and megalospheric generations dominate, but which also contain some pseudo-megalospheric specimens. Pseudo-megalospheric tests may cause values which are atypical in the statistical sense but which are fully normal biologically. Other atypical values derive from crushed specimens, microspheric individuals and unusual normal megalospheres with exceptionally wide shells and pointed last chambers. A wrongly punched specimen was also found by the procedure. The method employed here consists of plotting the generalized statistical distances calculated from robust estimates of means and of covariances against the quantiles of a Gaussian distribution; the presence of an atypical observation(s) is readily exposed by its departure from the main trend of the plot.     

Effective periods and seismic performance of steel moment resisting frames designed for risk categories I and IV according to IBC2009

In current seismic design, structures that are essential for post‐disaster recovery, and hazardous facilities are classified as risk category IV and are designed with higher importance factors and stringent drift limits. These structures are expected to perform better in an earthquake event because a larger base shear and more stringent drift limit are used. Although this provision has been in the seismic design code over the last three decades, few studies have investigated the performance of essential structures. The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of higher importance factors and stringent drift limits on the seismic performance of steel moment resisting frames. A total of 16 steel structures are designed for Los Angeles and Seattle. Different risk categories are used for the design. The effects of the risk categories on the structural periods, and thus on the seismic force demand, are investigated. A suite of inelastic time history analyses are carried out to understand the probability of exceeding a specified limit state when the structures are subjected to different levels of earthquake events. The results show that the periods of the structures in risk category IV decrease by a factor of 0.5 to 0.8, and the strengths increase by a factor of 1.5 to 3.2. Seismic fragility analysis shows that the structures in risk category IV generally satisfy the probabilistic performance objectives. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climatic Characteristics of Binary Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

Based on typhoon best track data of China Meteorological Administration and NCEP global reanalysis data, this study analyzed the characteristics of binary tropical cyclones (TC) in the Northwest Pacific Ocean during 1951 to 2014 by using the objective determine standard. When the distance between the two TCs d≤ 1 800 km, they are defined as binary tropical cyclones or binary typhoons. And binary typhoons are divided into two different types which are typical binary typhoons and atypical binary typhoons. The climatic characteristics of binary tropical cyclones are as follows: There were 699 pairs of binary typhoons in Northwest Pacific Ocean during 1951 to 2014. In these cases, there were 446 pairs of typical binary typhoons and 253 pairs of atypical cases, occupying 63.8% and 36.2%, respectively. The proportion of typical cases increased with the shortest distance decreasing, while the proportion of atypical cases decreased with the shortest distance decreasing. When the speed of typical binary typhoons moving towards each other reached the peak, binary typhoons mainly showed the east to west direction. At this time, typhoons were controlled by easterly stream of the southern edge of the subtropical high. In this situation, the east typhoon moved toward the west typhoon quickly. When the anticlockwise angular velocity of typical binary typhoons reached the peak, binary cases distributed northeast to southwest or east-northeast to west-southwest, appearing in west and southwest edge of the subtropical high and mainly being controlled by southeasterly stream, thus benefiting the anticlockwise rotation between the typical binary typhoons.     

Interpretation of tectonic versus magmatic processes for resetting apatite fission track ages in the Niğde Massif, Turkey

A network of 10 OBS operating in continuous recording mode was deployed in June 2003 in the Galicia passive Margin, surrounding the sinking zone of the ‘Prestige’ oil tanker. The OBSs recorded very different signals, including air-gun shots, seismic events, whale vocalizations or noise associated to ships, as well as two sets of atypical seismic signals that are the object of this contribution and can be described as harmonic tremors and short-duration events. Harmonic tremors appear in most sites as intense monochromatic signals lasting for up to 4 h, with coherent polarization and a wide range of amplitudes. Even if they may be recorded at different sites within a time interval, their envelopes are not correlated, suggesting a source origin at the vicinity of each receiver. A time periodicity close to 6 h is observed, suggesting a correlation with the tidal variation. Most OBSs show also a large number of impulsive events of short-duration, between 1 and 2 s, a very regular decrease of amplitude in the signal coda and characteristic frequency spectrum with one or two narrow peaks. As for the tremors, those events are detected only in individual sites, suggesting very local source zones. We favor the interpretation of both seismic features as coming from the resonance of fluid-filled cracks induced by impulsive pressure transients, in agreement with the theoretical model of Chouet [Chouet, B. 1988. Resonance of a fluid-driven crack: radiation properties and implications for the source of long-period events and harmonic tremor. J. Geophys. Res., 93, 4375–4400.]. The observed harmonic tremors would be the result of sustained pressure fluctuations, probably related to the stress variations induced by the tidal change of the oceanic load, while the short duration events are interpreted as the impulse response to the tremor-generating system.     

INTEGRATED FRACTIONS SKILL SCORE FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF PRECIPITATION

Traditional skill scores (e.g., the threat score) used in the high-resolution verification of precipitation are affected by a “double penalty” caused by slight spatial or temporal displacements, which can lead to misleading evaluations. The fractions skill score (FSS) is a popular spatial verificaiton measure that can be used to solve these problems. It can determine useful and skillful scores by neighborhood analysis, which can be used to monitor the performance of operational forecasts. However, the FSS provides different scores at each spatial scale and it is difficult to obtain a definite score for the assessment of precipitation to analyze the temporal variabilities of daily forecasts. We previously reported a modified FSS assessment method and showed that a particular analysis scale had a significant advantage in the verification of operational forecasts of precipitation. To compensate for the lack of artificial definition in the analysis scale, we report here a new integrated score that satisfies a Gaussian weight function to average the FSS over all scales. We describe the advantages of the new score in the verification of forecasts of daily and hourly precipitation, taking forecast products from the GRAPES regional model and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the National Meteorological Information Center during June and July 2017 and investigating the differences between these results and those obtained with the traditional category score. We found that a value of 0.5 can be used as a standard for the skillful FSS in the forecast of heavy rainfall. The integrated score can maintain all the advantages seen in previous studies in the verification of daily and hourly precipitation and show excellent application prospects. The long-term verification including different seasons also find that the score can effectively improve the identification characteristics of the assessment.