从经验性预报向以物理为基础的概率预报过渡的若干问题

前言 地震预报是一个既古老又年轻的课题。早在二千七百多年前我国就开始有地震记载。公元132年,东汉张衡发明了世界上最早的地震仪——候风地动仪。但是,世界性的比较科学的地震预报研究大体上从本世纪六十年代开始。日本从1965年开始执行第一个地震预报五年计划。苏联虽自1948年阿什哈巴德地震之后就提出地震预报,但是,在地震学、地球物理和地球化学等方面探索前兆,真正取得进展也始于六十年代末。我国有计划大规模开展地震预报从1966年邢台地震现场开始。美国地震预报起步稍晚,但进展很快。 二十多年的观测、研究和预报实践推动了地震预报事业的发展。地震预报已从束手无策的     

天津市郊大气边界层湍谱特征分析

用１９９０年７月在天津市郊的观测资料，计算了风速谱、温度谱及动量和热量通量的协谱。结果表明，市郊下垫面上的大气湍流谱特征与平坦地形上得到的典型结果基本一致，但满足各向同性的湍流尺度似乎比在平坦地形上的略大，谱的峰值频率区域略窄，谱的低频区（含能区）特征与平坦地形上的情况也不同。     

气压场巨涨落与非线性地震系统状态的突变和临震预报研究（上）

本研究以非线性孕震系统在爆发前夕的外敏性为物理基础，对大气扰动下的岩体失稳突变问题进行了初步的探讨，给出了气─－地耦合的一般表示，并连续分析了云南近３５年来大气压力场演化与场内近百次５级以上地震（内含１９次６级，４次７级）的基本关系，系统地证明了绝大部分强震都是在其上覆大气涨落加剧及与邻区气压梯度增大时突然爆发的，这种自然共性的揭示，既是对理论的认证，也丰富了短临地震预报的科学依据。     

大气环流的奇偶对称性（Ⅰ）理论依据和气候特征

文中使用奇偶对称分析方法，利用观测资料对全球环流的奇偶对称分量的分布做了分析，指出奇偶分布的气候特征及其时间演变能反映南北半球海陆差异带来的影响，揭示大气对辐射加热响应的时间尺度、环流的波动结构及全球环流季节性调整等一些特征。     

七月大气环流对南极海冰异常的响应

本文用一个全球大气九层谱模式，模拟了七月份南极两个不同海区海冰区异常对大气环流的影响。主要讨论了大气环流对南极海冰异常存在的局地性的及全球性的响应。细致分析了二个区域极冰异常导致的南北半球低频波列分布的差异，以及它们对热带区域及亚洲季风区降水、越赤道气流的不同影响。最后则依据我们的模拟结果，讨论了南极海冰异常影响全球大气环流的动力学机制。     

Meteorology and haze structure during AGASP-II,Part 1: Alaskan Arctic flights, 2–10 April 1986

The second Arctic Gas and Aerosol Sampling Program (AGASP-II) was conducted across the Alaskan and Canadian Arctic in April 1986, to study the in situ aerosol, and the chemical and optical properties of Arctic haze. The NOAA WP-3D aircraft, with special instrumentation added, made six flights during AGASP-II. Measurements of wind, pressure, temperature, ozone, water vapor, condensation nuclei (CN) concentration, and aerosol scattering extinction (b_sp) were used to determine the location of significant haze layers. The measurements made on the first three flights, over the Arctic Ocean north of Barrow and over the Beaufort Sea north of Barter Island, Alaska are discussed in detail in this report of the first phase of AGASP II. In the Alaskan Arctic the WP-3D detected a large and persistent region of haze between 960 and 750 mb, in a thermally stable layer, on 2, 8, and 9 April 1986. At its most dense, the haze contained CN concentrations >10,000 cm^–3 and b_sp of 80×10^–6 m^–1 suggesting active SO₂ to H₂SO₄ gas-to-particle conversion. Calculations based upon observed SO₂ concentrations and ambient relative humidities suggest that 10⁴–10⁵ small H₂SO₄ droplets could have been produced in the haze layers. High concentrations of sub-micron H₂SO₄ droplets were collected in haze. Ozone concentrations were 5–10 ppb higher in the haze layers than in the surrounding troposphere. Outside the regions of haze, CN concentrations ranged from 100 to 400 cm^–3 and b_sp values were about (20–40)×10^–6 m^–1. Air mass trajectories were computed to depict the air flow upwind of regions in which haze was observed. In two cases the back trajectories and ground measurements suggested the source to be in central Europe.     

Performance of the electrochemical ozone sonde OSR

Summary The accuracy of the electrochemical ozone sonde, type OSR, has been estimated by analysing tandem ozone soundings of the balloon-borne electrochemical ozone sonde OSR at the Lindenberg Observatory from May to November 1982. A negative bias, though not significant, has been observed above about 28 km for soundings having high single correction factors. Random errors are at their minimum just above the level of the maximum of ozone partial pressure, and reach their maximum in the troposphere. Except at heights above about 28 km the random error of ozone sondes is a factor 2 to 3 times less than the error of the short Umkehr method. Provided that soundings with too high correction factors are neglected, the ozone sonde OSR has an accuracy comparable to that of other Brewer type sondes.The maximum amount of information on the vertical ozone distribution can be drawn from sonde measurements in the lower stratosphere. A study is underway to improve the sensitivity of the sonde OSR and thus to further enhance its reliability.     

The lunar barometric tide in New Zealand

The lunar barometric tide has been determined with reasonable accuracy, on an annual and seasonal basis, at five stations on the mainland of New Zealand and at three of the outlying islands. The determinations show that in the New Zealand region the lunar tide has a larger amplitude and smaller phase than might have been expected from previously available southern-hemisphere results. In general, the seasonal variation of phase in the New Zealand region conforms to the currently recognised global pattern, with the J-season phase greater than that of the D-season. Similarly, the amplitude variation tends to support the suggestion that, south of latitude 30°S, the D-season amplitude is greater than that of the J-season. Approximate tests are introduced and used to assess the statistical significance of some of the apparent differences in amplitude and phase made evident by the analysis. These assessments indicate that although many of the apparent differences may be attributed to sampling fluctuations, the main regional anomalies in amplitude and phase are likely to be real. It is suggested that these anomalies may indicate a significant regional input of tidal energy to the atmosphere (at the lower boundary) from the Pacific oceanic tide.     

Orographic effect on potential gradient

Potential gradients were measured in the valley of the Simhachalam hills and near the top. They were found to be higher at the top than in the valley, where they increased in the forenoon. It was the reverse at the top of the hills. The valley winds were found to play an important role in the variation of potential gradient.     

Recent advances in solar radio physics

We review high spatial resolution microwave observations of solar active regions, coronal loops and flares. Observations of preflare active regions are presented; in particular we discuss the interpretations of reversal of polarization at the flare site and the role of newly emerging flux in triggering the onset of flares. We discuss the spatial locations of microwave burst emitting regions; loops or arcades of loops appear to be the sites of flare energy release in microwave bursts. We provide direct observational evidence of magnetic reconnection as the primary cause of acceleration of electrons in microwave bursts.